Study of the Dynamics of Railway Passenger Traffic, Identification of Trends

Abstract

Changes in passenger traffic and the choice of vehicle affect the country’s environment, economic and social situation, as well as the operating costs of the transport infrastructure. Rail transport is more environmentally friendly (the CO₂ footprint of a train passenger per kilometre is about 14 g CO₂), more economical than road transport (the CO₂ footprint of a car passenger varies between 42 and 158 g/km, depending on the performance of the car and the number of passengers), but it is still inferior to it in terms of popularity (comparing them, in Lithuania only 10.41% cent (1st quarter of 2022) of passengers chose the railway, comparing the data of passenger traffic in 2019 with 2013, an increase of only about 13% is recorded). The aim of the article is to identify the dynamics of railway passenger traffic, the determining factors and make future forecasts. After carrying out a systematic and comparative analysis of the concepts published in the scientific literature, the factors determining the dynamics of railway passenger traffic have been identified. Forecasts for the year 2022 were made as a result of the empirical study. Secondary data analysis, statistical processing, correlation regression analysis, forecasting methods were used to achieve the aim.