Spatial Analysis of Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Killed or Seriously Injured Persons from Motor Vehicle Collisions Within the City of Toronto

Abstract

This research is intended to support policy makers, infrastructure designers, road safety planners, and law enforcement in the identification of the underlying characteristics of killed or seriously injured (KSI) between 2006 and 2019, as a result of motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) within the City of Toronto. A combination of global and local spatial autocorrelation testing approaches with Moran’s I and Getis-Ord followed by statistical modeling was leveraged. Results determined by KSIs within the City of Toronto were not random in nature and spatial interaction was driven by underlying factors. Global autocorrelation was only present in the Downtown Toronto Area. Stepwise regression modeling (SRM) revealed a multitude of explanatory factors including land use, infrastructure density, and demographics to explain the variation within the rate of KSI occurrences with statistical significance. Data for this research was acquired through open data and academic repositories from Toronto Police Service, City of Toronto, and Statistics Canada.

Appendix: Linear Feature Definitions (City of Toronto 2020)

• Highway is designated for fast, long-distance travel with restricted access to sustain high speeds.

• Highway Transfer Ramp provides for transfer between road and highway and also between highway and highway.

• Arterial Road is usually under regional jurisdiction and is fed by collector roads and in some cases is connected to other arterial roads or collector roads via road ramp.

• Collector Roads is designated mainly for travel to and from arterial roads with some driveway access. In metro they are usually under local jurisdiction.

• Lane is designated mainly for City of Toronto laneways and is usually under local jurisdiction.

• Local Road is designated to service driveway access and usually connects to collector roads or other local roads.

• Access Road is dedicated to provide access to or within properties such as townhouse complexes, airports etc.

• Pending Road is suggested to identify roads with a planned feature code that awaits council approval. This is not requested until the road is assumed and may be delayed for 6 years or more.

• Road Ramps (major arterial, minor arterial, collector, other) provide for transfer between two roads.

• Busway is a road dedicated for buses only.

• Major Railway is designated for the fast, long-distance, inter-provincial movement of cargo or passenger trains.

• Minor Railway is designated for local public transportation and includes aboveground rapid transit corridors and subway lines.

• River is a major waterway.

• Creek/Tributary is a minor waterway.

• Trail is a pedestrian way designated for recreational purposes and can include foot-powered vehicles such as bikes or roller-blades, etc.

• Walkway is a designated path primarily for walking.

• Hydro Line is an electricity transportation corridor (high voltage).

• Major Shoreline is a boundary of a large body of water, e.g., Lake Ontario shoreline.

• Minor Shoreline is a boundary of a small body of water such as a pond or reservoir.