The Tragedy of US–Russian Relations: NATO Centrality and the Revisionists’ spiral

Abstract

This chapter adds to the debate on NATO expansion in two ways that depart from standard practice. First, it makes explicit the theoretical models that the debate relies upon. Second, it carefully traces Russian discourse and behavior over time. The results show that NATO centrality rather than simply NATO expansion is the root issue. It best captures the historical origins of the problem and is most consistent with the Russian evidence. Indeed, the findings demonstrate that Russia’s cooperative moves vis-à-vis NATO were premised upon Moscow’s strongly revisionist preferences regarding the European security architecture. Extending the point, it argues that the US–NATO–Russia spiral is best understood as an offensive-realist tragedy as opposed to a security dilemma or a standoff between one pure security-seeking state and one greedy expansionist. The key protagonists were both revisionists whose preferences and grand strategies brought them into conflict. Central to the whole story is not classical territorial security threats, but much broader conceptions of security.