Abstract
The article is devoted to forecasting and preventing the development of accidents and expert assessment of accidents that have occurred on the example of railway transportation of dangerous goods. Bayesian belief networks are used, which make it possible to assess the uncertainty of the initial data, the causal relationships of events. Causal relationships are modeled using conditional probabilities that evaluate the degree of confidence in the truth of new incoming (causing) information based on previously received information. The Bayesian net method allows carrying out procedures that are not available for traditional quantitative risk assessment. Networks can be corrected by supplementing the constructed model with data on the failure rates of a real object. Computer modeling of the accident using a probabilistic graphical model was performed in the “GeNIe” software package with an analysis of its main factors. Accident modeling is accompanied by color thematic visualization of dependencies between random factors with the construction of a directed path in an acyclic graph, the vertices of which are the factors, and the edges determine the dependencies between them. On the example of a real catastrophe at a railway station, the effectiveness of the constructed model is confirmed. The analysis of the results obtained in the modes of sensitivity assessment and diagnostics was carried out, which made it possible to determine the main factors of the accident.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Repina IB (2015) Taking into account the influence of the human factor on the organizational and technological reliability of the production processes of the railway infrastructure. Dissertation, Siberian Transport University
Zamyshlyaev AM (2013) Automation of the processes of integrated management of the technical content of railway transport infrastructure. Dissertation, Russian University of Transport
Protopopov VA (2015) Aggregated vulnerability assessment of transport infrastructure facilities. Dissertation, University of Irkutsk State Transport University
Slyusar NN (2004) Management of environmental risks of transportation of explosives by rail. Dissertation, University of Perm National Research Polytechnic University
Martynyuk IV (2007) Improving the safety of rail transportation of dangerous goods, taking into account interaction with other kindes of transport and the environment. Dissertation, Rostov State Transport University
Hoła A et al (2018) Methodology of classifying the causes of occupational accidents involving construction scaffolding using Pareto-Lorenz analysis. Appl Sci 8(1):48
GeNIe Modeler. https://support.bayesfusion.com/docs/GeNIe/. Accessed 29 Jan 2022
Muginstein LA et al (2020) The main causes of increased wear of rails and ridges of wheel sets of freight cars. Railway Transp 6:25–33
Umanets VV (2020) Issues of analysis of logistics risks in the transportation of goods by rail. Probl Risk Anal 3(17):66–73
Dindar S et al (2017) Derailment-based fault tree analysis on risk management of railway turnout systems. IOP Conf. Ser Mater Sci Eng 245:1–8
Fabiano B et al (2005) Dangerous good transportation by road: from risk analysis to emergency planning. J Loss Prev Process Ind 18(4–6):403–413
Oblasov AA (2010) Risk management in cargo transportation. Russ Entrep 4(1):48–50
Murylev OV (2012) Features of emergency situations in case of accidents on railway transport. Bull Med Internet Conf 2:157
Smolyak AS (2017) On probabilistic models for estimating the residual service life and wear of machinery and equipment. Econ Manag Natl Econ Prop Relat Russ Fed 2(185):75–87
Poluyan LV, Malukova MG (2018) Assessment of human factor in critical infrastructures. Safety 2018:1–6. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/481/1/012001
De Felice F, Petrillo A, Fabio FZ (2018) Human factors and reliability engineering for safety and security in critical infrastructures decision making, theory, and practice. Italy
De Felice F, Petrillo A, Zomparelli F (2017) Human factors challenges in disaster management scenario 27th European safety and reliability conference. CRC Press, pp 171–187
The standard of the SSSRIEC 62508–2014 (the Russian State Standard Specification, the International Electrical Commission) Risk management. Impact analysis to dependability of human aspects 2015
Weilbull distribution. Data analysis. https://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200146523. Accessed 4 April 2022
Sortirovka-88. https://66.ru/news/incident/236106/#i_agree_152. Accessed 29 March 2022
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Chikir, M.V., Poluyan, L.V. (2023). Bayesian Network Modeling for Analysis and Prediction of Accidents in Railway Transportation of Dangerous Goods. In: Radionov, A.A., Ulrikh, D.V., Timofeeva, S.S., Alekhin, V.N., Gasiyarov, V.R. (eds) Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Construction, Architecture and Technosphere Safety. ICCATS 2022. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol 308. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21120-1_53
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21120-1_53
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-21119-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-21120-1
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)