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Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Middle East

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Satellite Monitoring of Water Resources in the Middle East

Part of the book series: Springer Water ((SPWA))

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  • The original version of this chapter was revised: The following belated corrections have been incorporated: The author name “Agniv Sengputa” has been changed to “Agniv Sengupta” in the Frontmatter, and in the Chapter. The correction to this chapter is available at https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15549-9_23

Abstract

This study explores historical mean climate and future projected change of atmospheric rivers (ARs) and precipitation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. A suite of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, historical and RCP8.5 scenarios) and other observations are used to estimate AR frequency and mean daily precipitation. Despite the arid-to-semi-arid climate in MENA, parts of this region experience frequent and intense ARs, which largely contribute to the total annual precipitation, such as in the mountainous areas of Turkey and Iran. By the end of this century, this study reports that AR frequency is projected to increase by ~20–40% for the North Africa and Mediterranean regions (including any areas with latitudes 35 N and higher). However, in these regions, mean daily precipitation (i.e., regardless of the presence of ARs) is projected to decrease by ~15–30%. For other regions within MENA, such as the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, minor changes in AR frequency are expected (±10%), yet mean precipitation for these regions is projected to increase (~50%). Generally, the sign of change in projected AR frequency is opposite to the sign of change in projected mean daily precipitation for most areas within the MENA region.

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Change history

  • 16 December 2022

    Correction to: Chapter “Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Middle East” in: A. Shaban (ed.), Satellite Monitoring of Water Resources in the Middle East, Springer Water, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15549-9_4

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Dr, Pasadena, CA, 91109, USA

    Elias Massoud, Duane Waliser & Bin Guan

  2. University of California, Berkeley. 130 Hilgard Way, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA

    Elias Massoud

  3. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Rd, Oak Ridge, TN, 37830, USA

    Elias Massoud

  4. University of Balamand, Green Community Village, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

    Theresa Massoud

  5. University of California, 607 Charles E. Young Drive East, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA

    Bin Guan

  6. University of California, San Diego. 8622 Kennel Way, La Jolla, CA, 92037, USA

    Agniv Sengupta

Authors
  1. Elias Massoud
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  2. Theresa Massoud
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  3. Duane Waliser
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  4. Bin Guan
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  5. Agniv Sengupta
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Correspondence to Elias Massoud .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. National Council for Scientific Research, Beirut, Lebanon

    Amin Shaban

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Massoud, E., Massoud, T., Waliser, D., Guan, B., Sengupta, A. (2022). Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Middle East. In: Shaban, A. (eds) Satellite Monitoring of Water Resources in the Middle East. Springer Water. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15549-9_4

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