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Assessing the Pyroclastic Density Current Hazards at Merapi: From Field Data to Numerical Simulations and Hazard Maps

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Merapi Volcano

Part of the book series: Active Volcanoes of the World ((AVOLCAN))

Abstract

Merapi is considered as the most active and the most frequently eruptive volcano in Indonesia and is responsible for more than 5200 casualties since the eighteenth century, mainly caused by pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Although eruptions are predominated by gravitational dome-collapse events and small explosions of VEI < 3, some PDCs associated with larger explosive events repeatedly reached distances up to 15–20 km from the summit during the last 200 years. PDC hazard mapping in Indonesia is traditionally based on the maximum extent of PDCs as derived from previous eruptions. The potential hazard of long-runout, widespread high-energy PDCs able to spread across densely populated interfluve (non-valley) and distal regions is now considered the most challenging component of the PDC hazard mapping at Merapi. PDC hazard modelling approaches have developed and diversified in several ways and can be subdivided into either deterministic (i.e. scenario-based) or probabilistic types. The depth-averaged modelling approach seems to be suitable for the simulation of flows and surges generated by dome collapses, the most common type of PDCs at Merapi. However, regardless of the modelling approach chosen, simulation results should always be interpreted carefully and, if integrated into a hazard plan, done with expert advice. In doing this, the use of well-constrained geological data, validation metrics and statistical approaches such as those described here can provide valuable insight and assist in the PDC hazard analysis process. Outcomes of such modelling efforts could provide the basis for establishing an interpretation framework and defining the ‘best practices’ to conduct rigorous PDC hazard assessments. Such guidelines could be widely distributed to correctly inform and advise geological surveys worldwide about the breadth and depth of understanding of methodologies and procedures currently available for undertaking robust PDC hazard assessments at other active volcanoes like Merapi.

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Acknowledgements

Field work following the 2010 eruption was funded through the National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID grant 1114852. SJC thanks Laura Connor for her assistance with the Titan2D and VolcFlow probabilistic modelling. The authors would like to thank our Indonesian colleagues at the Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) at the Merapi Volcano Observatory, Yogyakarta, for fruitful discussions about the 2006 and 2010 eruptions and PDC hazard assessment at Merapi volcano. We also thank the editor Ralf Gertisser and reviewer Lucia Capra for their constructive comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, 4202 East Fowler Avenue, Tampa, FL, 33620, USA

    Sylvain J. Charbonnier

  2. Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, OPGC, Clermont-Ferrand, France

    Karim Kelfoun

  3. Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, N2-01b-30b, Singapore, 639798, Singapore

    Christina Widiwijayanti

  4. Balai Penyelidikan Dan Pengembangan Teknologi Kebencanaan Geologi, CVGHM, Geological Agency of Indonesia, JL. Cendana No. 15, Yogyakarta, 55166, Indonesia

    Dewi Sri Sayudi & Raditya Putra

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  1. Sylvain J. Charbonnier
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Correspondence to Sylvain J. Charbonnier .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography, Geology and the Environment, Keele University, Keele, UK

    Ralf Gertisser

  2. Department of Earth Science, University of Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden

    Valentin R. Troll

  3. GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany

    Thomas R. Walter

  4. Geological Agency, Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, BPPTKG, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

    I Gusti Made Agung Nandaka

  5. Geological Agency, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bandung, Indonesia

    Antonius Ratdomopurbo

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Charbonnier, S.J., Kelfoun, K., Widiwijayanti, C., Sayudi, D.S., Putra, R. (2023). Assessing the Pyroclastic Density Current Hazards at Merapi: From Field Data to Numerical Simulations and Hazard Maps. In: Gertisser, R., Troll, V.R., Walter, T.R., Nandaka, I.G.M.A., Ratdomopurbo, A. (eds) Merapi Volcano. Active Volcanoes of the World. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15040-1_16

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