Behavioural Factors: Cognitive Biases and Dissonance, Anomie, and Alienation (Or How We Humans Mess Things Up)

Abstract

The chapter addresses how human behaviour influences our ability to make objective decisions when faced with (perceived) uncertainty. The often unsettling nature of uncertainty allows for a variety of behavioural conditions to play out. In turn these conditions act as barriers when attempting to assess objectively the nature of uncertainty. These behavioural conditions include a whole range of cognitive biases, misapplied heuristics, cognitive dissonance, as well as social anomie (and alienation). An overall proposition of this book is that uncertainty is really a “known-unknown” and therefore can be managed. However, it is argued that the manifestation of those behavioural conditions highlighted above, such as cognitive biases, tends to drive our decision-making processes into accepting all too readily that uncertainty is an “unknown-unknown” which in turn absolves decision-makers from responsibility when things go wrong.

All may not therefore be as it would appear. We must not let our assumptions, our perceptions and “mental maps” get in the way of seeing a new, unfolding reality……It is impossible therefore to start to constructively think about a world in transition without a debate that challenges deep assumptions. Such a debate must distil fact and opinion, grounded in constructive discussion, from a mirage of convenient dreams or outdated rules. The results of this distillation process may not be totally benign, but it is better to face up to the unpleasant rather than ignore it.

Robert W. Davies “The Era of Global Transition” Palgrave Macmillan (2012).