Scenario Derivatives First, Second, and Third Order Scenarios: Generic (Landscape) Variables

Abstract

It is rare for scenarios to be stand-alone and discrete: rather they contain any number of linked downstream sub-scenarios called derivatives. The bigger the initial primary event the more likely that it will have multiple ramifications generating spin-offs of varying degrees of intensity and visibility. Yet, the subsidiary status of derivative scenarios makes them more dangerous as they are often overlooked due to the dominance of the primary event and where the impact of unintended and uncertain consequences of initial actions generated by the first order scenario can play out. A number of MTTs are introduced which help the analyst determine what, when, and where these derivative scenarios can occur. A variety of qualitative and quantitative methods such as horizon scanning, mind maps, PESTLE and dynamic PESTLE, hypothesis generation and analysis, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are highlighted. The chapter thus posits that only constant scanning can mitigate unconsidered surprises hidden within derivative scenarios.

As I write, our much vaunted windmills aren’t turning because it isn’t very windy, and we can’t rely on coal-fired power stations because they’re all being closed down. And we haven’t been able to build any new nuclear reactors because of some newts. Which makes us reliant on gas. And that’s a problem because a burly Russian with a beef about something or other is standing on the hose that delivers natural gas from the Urals to Europe. And to make matters worse for our energy needs, the cable that brings electricity from France to Britain was damaged by a fire, and it won’t be mended for the best part of a year …… .

Jeremy Clarkson—Motoring Journalist and Farmer—Sunday Times October 2021.