Abstract
The long-term rise of global temperatures due to climate change has resulted in a larger increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme temperature events. The warming trend with an increase in the intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves is observed mainly in the North western regions of India. The current development of Temperature Intensity Duration Frequency (TDF) curves relies on the assumption of stationarity which does not hold valid due to the recent evidences in global warming. In this study, India Meteorological Department (IMD) 1° × 1° gridded temperature dataset is used to examine the frequency of occurrence of extreme temperatures over the North Western homogeneous temperature region of India covering 50 grid points during the period of 1951–2019. The maximum daily temperatures for six different durations of 1-day, 2-day, 4-day, 6-day, 8-day and 10-day were extracted. This study proposes a non-stationary approach to the development of TDF curves keeping time as a covariate. Five Non-Stationary TDF models were developed varying location and scale parameters linearly, exponentially and their combinations with respect to time. The goodness-of-fit is improved when using a non-stationary approach with time covariates. Model, NSGEV-1 for which location parameter was linearly varied with respect to time turned out to be the best fitting model for more than 84% of the grid points for different durations. A comparison of Stationary TDF curve and Non-Stationary TDF curves were also carried to illustrate the impacts of considering non-stationarity in extreme temperature analysis.
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Mohan, M.G., Adarsh, S. (2022). Non-stationary Temperature Duration Frequency Curves for the North-West Homogeneous Region of India. In: Gökçekuş, H., Kassem, Y. (eds) Climate Change, Natural Resources and Sustainable Environmental Management. NRSEM 2021. Environmental Earth Sciences. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-04375-8_10
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