Abstract
We live in a world in which our actions and planning are increasingly influenced by manifold linkages and feedbacks. We can neither fully grasp the interrelationships relevant to our goals and initial situation nor evaluate them without error. In short: our world is complex. Long-term planning is not characterized by rigid conditions, but by uncertainties. However, through careful analysis, known uncertainties can be named to a certain extent and mapped into scenarios. In this way, strategies emerge whose conditions and prerequisites can and must be simultaneously and permanently considered during the implementation and further planning process. In this way, the planning process and the planning result are given a new stability. Although the new stability does not eliminate the uncertainties, it does lead to a productive management of them. Finally, productive management of the uncertainties requires open implementation. Open implementation works out the details of strategy implementation and exposes the conditions and prerequisites of a strategy to a reality check. This feedback loop, firmly built into the planning process, requires the ability to engage in robust dialogue and thus a corresponding open corporate culture.
The universal has given way to the contextual, the local, and the pursuit of the one, single, absolute truth is displaced by a humble respect for the plurality of truths that partially and pragmatically map our world.
(Sandra Mitchell, 2008) (Sandra Mitchell, Complexities. Why we are only beginning to understand the world, p. 152. Suhrkamp 2008, Frankfurt a.M.)
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Notes
- 1.
‘It is quite true what philosophy says, that life must be understood backwards. But over this one forgets the other sentence, that life must be lived forwards.’ Søren Kierkegaard, Die Tagebücher 1834–1855, selection and translation by Theodor Haecker, Innsbruck, Brenner-Verlag 1923.
- 2.
Nassim Taleb, looking at the unexpected events, or rather unanticipated events, has developed the theory of the ‘black swan’ event. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan—The Power of Highly Improbable Events, Albrecht Knaus Verlag, Munich 2007.
- 3.
With regard to John Maynard Keynes’ famous statement ‘in the long run we are all dead’ probably with one exception. See the full quote about economists’ helpful statements about the future: ‘In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if, in tempestuous seasons, they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean is flat again.’ Ders: Tract on Monetary Reform, McMillan & Co, p. 80, London 1923.
- 4.
On the concept of complexity, see Historisches Wörterbuch der Philosophie, Vol. 4: I-K, pp. 939f., eds, Joachim Ritter, Karlfried Gründer, Wissenschaftliche Buchgesellschaft, Darmstadt 1976.
- 5.
For a very clear study of the challenges of making correct, i.e. goal-oriented, decisions in a complex world, see also Dietrich Dörner, Logik des Misslingens—Strategisches Denken in komplexen Situationen, Rowohlt, Reinbek 1989.
- 6.
However, this is only relevant if we do this in order to achieve a certain goal. If there is no goal, then there is no need for a strategy. If the goal is not set appropriately, the strategy works itself off on the unsuitable object. The latter often results from a lack of or insufficient engagement with the starting point.
- 7.
Sandra Mitchell, ibid., p. 130.
- 8.
See for an explanation of the history of concepts under the keyword ‘strategy’ in Historisches Wörterbuch der Philosophie, Vol.: 10 St-T, WBG, Darmstadt, 1998.
- 9.
Springer-verlag shows a query of the term Strategy under the heading ‘Management+Leadership’ on November 28, 2020 at 3:52 p.m. 1121 books at: https://www.springerprofessional.de/search?q.filters[0].values[0]=SPRBook&q.filters[1].mode=0&q.searchType=HeroBookSearch&q.courseType=&q.filters[0].mode=0&q.filters[1].values[0]=Management+%2B+F%C3%BChrung&q.sortType=Relevance&q.page=0&q.query=Strategy&q.filters[1].name=disciplinetaxonomyFacets&q.originQuery=&q.displayQuery=&q.manualSort=false&q.facets=true&q.filters[0].name=documenttype.
The term “strategy development” returned over 895,000 search results in 0.34 s on November 28, 2020 at 4:28 p.m.: https://www.google.com/search?ei=mGvCX9r5FpODhbIPwrul6AQ&q=strategy.development&oq=strategy.development&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzIECAAQRzIECAAQRzIECAAQRzIECAAQRzIECAAQRzIECAAQRzIECAAQRzIE-CAAQR1AAWABg_5MLaABwAngAgAEAiAEAkgEAmAEAqgEHZ3dzLXdpesgBCMABAQ&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjapZfyxaXtAhWTQUEAHcJdCU0Q4dUDCA0&uact=5One of the most rewarding books on the topic of strategy development is by Gary Hamel and C.K. Prahalad, Competing for the Future, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, 1994. See also Ulrich Pidun, Corporate Strategy - Theory and Practice, Springer Gabler, Wiesbaden 2019.
- 10.
A comprehensive account of dealing with uncertainty in the context of strategic planning can be found in Kai-Ingo Voigt, Strategische Planung und Unsicherheit, Gabler, Wiesbaden 1992. See further Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, fast and slow, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York, 2011.
- 11.
The above list cannot be considered complete or relevant in the same way for all companies. Anyone who wants to get a picture for themselves will quickly find what they are looking for on the Internet. Entering the search term ‘global trends 2020’ into the Google search engine on December 1, 2020 at 16:41 resulted in 49,700 search results within approx. 0.56 s: https://www.google.com/search?q=%22global+trends+2020%22&sxsrf=ALeKk01fa4yUazypn2Lu2_w42vYc8Z9Alg%3A1617807595955&ei=68htYJDWOaOSlwTVxZOIBw&oq=%22global+trends+2020%22&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMyBwgAEEcQsAMyBwgAEEcQsAMyBwgAEEcQsAMyBwgAEEcQsAMyBwgAEEcQsAMyBwgAEEcQsAMyBwgAEEcQsAMyBwgAEEcQsANQAFgAYP9TaAFwAngAgAFZiAFZkgEBMZgBAKoBB2d3cy13aXrIAQjAAQE&sclient=gwswiz&ved=0ahUKEwjQ98j4suzvAhUjyYUKHdXiBHEQ4dUDCAw&uact=5.
- 12.
https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2019-08/ueberwachung-china-sozialkreditsystem-eu-handelsk.ammern, 28 August 2019, 8:59 a.m. Source: TIME ONLINE, dpa, jci.
- 13.
See Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety announcement of 9 July 2020: https://www.bmu.de/themen/klima-energie/klimaschutz/emissionshandel/#c8 381.
- 14.
It is not possible to address the question of the extent to which China’s state capitalist system already systemically contains a corresponding utilitarian component as a demand on the companies operating there.
- 15.
The referendum in Switzerland on 29 November 2020 on the initiative ‘For responsible companies—to protect people and the environment’ is an impressive example of an attempt to intervene very fundamentally in corporate freedoms, or to bind them to the basic concept of society. (See FAZ of 28 November 2020: ‘The question of responsibility’ by Johannes Ritter). The same applies to the supply chain law under discussion in Germany.
- 16.
Comments on this: Nilsson, Andreas and Robinson, David T., What is the Business of Business? (June 13, 2017). Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 18, edited by Josh Lerner and Scott Stern, Duke I&E Research Paper No. 2017–12, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2985301, or https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2985301.
- 17.
It can be argued that this is a very Anglo-American view and that the idea of overall social entrepreneurial responsibility has already found an equivalent in the Western world since the founding of the Federal Republic with the social market economy. Some insight into the current discussion is provided by Ulrich Döring, Gewinn - ein Spaltpilz der BWL, F.A.Z. 30 November 2020.
- 18.
See https://www.spiegel.de/karriere/purpose-in-unternehmen-die-sinn-frage-a-a9fa36.29-fd8c-4c3e-a553-bf0b23c7ecdf—DER SPIEGEL of 12.07.2020.
- 19.
ESG stands for ‘Environment, Social, Governance’ and expresses the impact a company has on the environment, society and on good corporate governance itself in terms of its behaviour and products. See also the publications of the World Economic Forum, which plays an essential role here: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/stakeholder-capitalism-principle-practice-better-business/ and https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/12/davos-manifesto-2020-the-universal-purpose-of-a-company-in-the-fourthindustrial-revolution/.
- 20.
- 21.
Handelsblatt, July 14, 2020, “Blackrock cracks down on climate protection” https://www.handelsblatt.com/finance/bank-insurance/esg-criteria-blackrock-grabs-down-on-climate-protection/26000222.html?ticket=ST-2530765-DEb1o2udbBXFCUiRPveL-ap4.
- 22.
See in place of many and with further references: Dug Sundheim, Kate Starr, Making Stakeholder Capitalism a Reality, HBR January 20, 2020 https://hbr.org/2020/01/making-stakeholder-capitalism-a-reality, and Klaus Schwab, Stakeholder Capitalism, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken 2021.
- 23.
The term ‘circular economy’ is seen as an alternative to today’s predominantly linear economy, in which the waste that is no longer recycled is at the end of the value chain. Further information: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kreislaufwirtschaft retrieved on 20.01.2021 at 13:32.
- 24.
In this brief consideration, it is not possible to go into the corresponding goals of the Chinese government’s 14th Five-Year Plan.
- 25.
The best known are the PEST or PESTEL analysis, which refers to various environmental factors, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PEST_analysis, and Porter’s 5-forces: Michael E. Porter: Competitive Strategy: Techniques for analyzing industries and competitors: with a new introduction. Free Press, New York 1980.
- 26.
For strategy development, it is true that narrowly defined analyses provide a good and sharp insight, but a long-term stable decision-making situation is only possible through multiple perspectives.
- 27.
For general information on scenario technology, see: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Szenariotechnik retrieved on 20/03/2021 at 14:07. For more in-depth information, and in particular on the possibilities of computer-supported ‘robust adaptive planning’ (RAP) see Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven J. Bankes, Confronting Surprise, in Social Sience Computer Review, pp. 420 ff., 2002.
- 28.
Fundamental to this: Karl R. Popper in Logik der Forschung, eighth edition, J.C.B. Mohr (Paul Siebeck), Tübingen 1984.
- 29.
Sandra Mitchell, ibid., p. 113.
- 30.
The history books are full of examples of state leaders and corporations who have allowed their desire and view of the past to guide them into the future, rather than a clear analysis of the changes that are on the horizon. On the thinking traps in decision making: Highly recommended Daniel Kahneman, Fast Thinking—Slow Thinking, Siedler Verlag, Munich 2012.
- 31.
Surprisingly often too little attention is paid to the initial situation. According to the author’s experience, this is the basis for serious planning errors. The actual position in the market, skills and abilities are often overestimated or others overlooked. Wishful thinking on the part of the management as well as the often assumed expectations of investors often play a role in the decision for a strategy.
- 32.
It is not necessary to go into detail here about the fact that even the separation of this activity into separate business units can be a sensible strategy.
- 33.
See for a good overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_model Retrieved on
- 34.
Although intended for the development of products, the sprint method with certain adaptations is, according to the experience of the author, very suitable instructive perspectives in the strategy development. See Jake Knapp, Sprint: How to Solve Big Problems and Test New Ideas in Just Five Days, Simon & Schuster, New York 2016.
- 35.
See on this, especially with regard to political strategies: Sandra Mitchell, ibid. p. 114 ff.
- 36.
For the meaning and with further evidence see Erich Zahn, et al., Theorie und praktischer Nutzen von Unternehmenskultur, in Handbuch Unternehmensorganisation, p. 164 ff, ed. HansJörg Bullinger, Springer, Heidelberg 2009.
- 37.
See with regard to the development of robust strategies against climate change: Steven W. Popper, Robert J. Lempert, Steven V. Bankes, The Art of Looking into the Future, Spektrum der Wissenschaft, p. 94 f, July 2006; see also Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven J. Bankes, Confronting Surprise, in Social Science Computer Review, p. 420 ff, 2002. See further regarding financial portfolio rebalancing: N. Slate, E. Matwiejew, S. Marsh, and J. B. Wang, Quantum walked-based portfolio optimisation, Quantum 2021-07-28, volume 5, page 513.
- 38.
And here we should not only think of the purpose and the vision, but of the overall and Milestones of a strategy.
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Firnhaber, D. (2022). Intelligent Strategies: Correct Recognition and Good Choices in a Complex World. In: Holm-Hadulla, R.M., Funke, J., Wink, M. (eds) Intelligence - Theories and Applications. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-04198-3_18
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