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A SPEI-Based Approach to Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Analysis in the Lower Danube River Region

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The Lower Danube River

Part of the book series: Earth and Environmental Sciences Library ((EESL))

Abstract

Natural hazards, including droughts, are processes and phenomena that can trigger a negative impact on the environment, society and various economic sectors. The present chapter aims to identify spatial peculiarities of drought characteristics (frequency, duration, affected area) and to analyse drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in the Lower Danube region. The study area includes administrative regions from Romania (counties) and Bulgaria (districts) located along the Danube River, which is the common administrative border between the two countries. The northward and southward Danube territories are part of the most important agricultural areas of both countries, where natural landscapes have been significantly transformed by anthropogenic activities which contributed to the removal of the natural vegetation and its replacement with cultivated plants and urban areas. Drought characteristics and associated hazards were analysed using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3, 6, 12) for the period 1981–2019. Population density and land cover/land use data were taken into account in the drought vulnerability assessment. Drought hazard and vulnerability were considered in the drought risk evaluation which allowed the identification of the regional drought “hotspots”. Results show a very high level of drought risk associated to short-term drought (SPEI-3) in the central and eastern parts of the study region. In the case of long-term drought (SPEI-12), a reduction in areas showing a very high drought risk level is observed. The administrative regions located in the western part of the study area have very low and low levels of drought risk.

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Acknowledgements

This work has been carried out in the framework of the National Science Program “Environmental Protection and Reduction of Risks of Adverse Events and Natural Disasters”, approved by the Resolution of the Council of Ministers № 577/17.08.2018 and supported by the Ministry of Education and Science (MES) of Bulgaria (Agreements № Д01-322/18.12.2019 and № Д01-363/17.12.2020).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Geology and Geography, Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski, 15 Tsar Osvoboditel Blvd, 1504, Sofia Center, Bulgaria

    Nina Nikolova, Kalina Radeva & Leonid Todorov

  2. Meteo Romania (National Meteorological Administration), București-Ploiești no. 97, Sector 1, 013686, Bucharest, Romania

    Dana Magdalena Micu, Alexandru Dumitrescu, Monica Paraschiv & Sorin Cheval

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  1. Nina Nikolova
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  2. Dana Magdalena Micu
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  3. Alexandru Dumitrescu
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  4. Kalina Radeva
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  5. Monica Paraschiv
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  6. Sorin Cheval
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  7. Leonid Todorov
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Correspondence to Nina Nikolova .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Engineering, Zagazig University, Zagazig, Egypt

    Abdelazim Negm

  2. Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania

    Liliana Zaharia

  3. Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania

    Gabriela Ioana-Toroimac

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Nikolova, N. et al. (2022). A SPEI-Based Approach to Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Analysis in the Lower Danube River Region. In: Negm, A., Zaharia, L., Ioana-Toroimac, G. (eds) The Lower Danube River. Earth and Environmental Sciences Library. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-03865-5_10

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