Locating Rhyme: Historical Climate Lessons from Fourteenth Century Vietnam

Abstract

For centuries – even millennia – historians used the “rhymes” of the past to advise rulers and help shape policy the world over. From its earliest manifestations, history was not merely intended as an academic pursuit. By utilizing the long view, a practitioner was able to draw lessons from the past to apply to the most pressing dilemmas of the day. The list of historians who provided their services is legion and their council often proved critical to sound policymaking. Over the past five decades, however, historians have increasingly withdrawn from this role, content to isolate themselves from questions confronting contemporary society. This chapter does not explain why this retreat has taken place, but rather it demonstrates the potential value of history to social scientists and policymakers concerned with global health. With that in mind, this chapter is a case study of a historic climate change event that ravaged much of the earth between 1300 and 1850, namely, the Little Ice Age. Consequently, the two questions under examination are as follows: How did climate change destabilize fourteenth-century Vietnamese society? And how can knowledge of the past offer insights into the most vexing issues of the twenty-first century?