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Leading Indicators of Turkey’s Financial Crises

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New Dynamics in Banking and Finance

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Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the leading indicators of the 1994, 2000/2001, and 2009 Turkish financial crises by applying stepwise regression and probit and logit models to three sets of quarterly data. Empirical findings show that although there are a common set of leading indicators, including current account balance, domestic debt, exports, external debt, and real effective exchange rate, the three crises in Turkey are different in structure, and each has different characteristics with different leading indicators due to changes in the nature of the Turkish economy. Our findings indicate that at the current state of the Turkish economy, several fundamental macroeconomic variables, banking sector stability, and global economic developments are the main leading indicators for the crisis. Policymakers could minimize the risk of financial crises by imposing tighter regulations on banks to avoid default and credit risk, following liquidity levels in the markets, and closely following the stability of global economic indicators.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Banking and Finance, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Turkey

    Mohamad Kaakeh & Korhan K. Gökmenoğlu

Authors
  1. Mohamad Kaakeh
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  2. Korhan K. Gökmenoğlu
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mohamad Kaakeh .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Banking and Finance, Eastern Mediterranean University, Via Mersin 10, Turkey

    Nesrin Özataç

  2. Department of Banking and Finance, Eastern Mediterranean University, Via Mersin 10, Turkey

    Korhan K. Gökmenoğlu

  3. Department of Banking and Finance, Rauf Denktas University, Via Mersin 10, Turkey

    Bezhan Rustamov

Appendix

Appendix

1.1 Results Summary Table

Variable

Used in

Significant

0

1

2

3

4

SW

P

L

SW

P

L

SW

P

L

SW

P

L

SW

P

L

Bank lending

3rd

3rd

  

3rd

  

3rd

 

3rd

3rd

     

Bank lending to the private sector

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

2nd

2nd

2nd

1st/2nd

  

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st

1st/3rd

  

3rd

  

Budget balance

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

1st

     

2nd

2nd

 

1st

  

1st

  

Capital adequacy

3rd

3rd

  

3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

   

Commercial banks’ foreign assets

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

   

3rd

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd

  

1st/3rd

  

Commercial banks’ foreign liabilities

2nd & 3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd

2nd

2nd

      

2nd/3rd

  

Consumer total loans

3rd

   

3rd

  

3rd

        

Credit cards to private sector

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd/3rd

1st/2nd/3rd

1st/2nd

2nd

  

2nd

2nd

 

Current account balance

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

1st

1st

 

1st

1st

1st

   

Deposit rate

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

2nd

2nd

2nd

1st/2nd

2nd

2nd

2nd

     

2nd

2nd

2nd

Domestic credit

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st

1st

1st/3rd

3rd

3rd

1st

1st

1st

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

Domestic debt (bills)

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

         

1st

  

2nd/3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd

Exports

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

2nd

2nd

2nd

   

2nd

2nd

2nd

2nd/3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd/3rd

3rd

  

External debt

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

1st/3rd

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd/3rd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd/3rd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

2nd/3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd/3rd

1st/3rd

3rd

3rd

Federal fund middle rate

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

1st

1st

1st

1st

1st

1st

2nd

2nd

2nd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

 

2nd

2nd

2nd

Federal fund overnight rate

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd

2nd

2nd/3rd

2nd

2nd

2nd/3rd

3rd

3rd

2nd

  

Foreign direct investments

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

      

3rd

     

1st

  

Gold price

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

1st

  

3rd

  

3rd

3rd

3rd

1st

1st

1st

Government consumption

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

2nd

2nd

2nd

   

1st

        

Imports

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

1st /2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st

1st

1st

      

Industrial production

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

1st/2nd/3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd/3rd

1st/3rd

  

3rd

3rd

 

1st

1st

1st

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st

Inflation

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

1st

  

1st/2nd

2nd

 

1st

1st

1st

1st

1st

1st

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

LIBOR rate

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

3rd

  

3rd

  

3rd

  

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

   

Long-term interest rates (6 months)

3rd

         

3rd

3rd

3rd

   

M1

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd/3rd

/3rd

/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st

   

M2

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

M3

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

2nd

  

1st

  

2nd

  

1st/2nd

  

2nd/3rd

  

Net foreign assets

3rd

   

3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

  

3rd

  

3rd

  

Net international reserves

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

      

1st

1st

1st

   

3rd

3rd

3rd

Nonperforming loans/total loans

3rd

3rd

              

Oil price

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

1st/2nd/3rd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd/3rd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

  

Past-due loans

2nd & 3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

      

2nd/3rd

2nd

2nd

3rd

  

Portfolio investment

2nd & 3rd

               

Real effective exchange rate

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

2nd

2nd

2nd

3rd

  

1st/3rd

  

1st/3rd

1st

1st

3rd

  

Stock price index

1st, 2nd & 3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

3rd

2nd/3rd

  

3rd

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd

  

1st/2nd

2nd

 

TL to dollars

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

   

3rd

3rd

 

1st/2nd/3rd

1st/3rd

1st/3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

TL to euro

3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

      

3rd

     

Total credit cards

3rd

      

3rd

3rd

       

Total deposits

2nd & 3rd

         

3rd

  

3rd

  

Trade balance

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

2nd

2nd

2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st

1st

2nd

2nd

2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

Unemployment

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

1st

  

2nd

2nd

2nd

2nd

2nd

2nd

1st

1st

1st

   

US T-bill rate

1st, 2nd, & 3rd

3rd

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

2nd

3rd

  

3rd

     
  1. Note: SW stands for stepwise regression, P stands for probit models, L stands for logit models, 1st stands for the 1994 crisis, 2nd stands for the twin crises of 2000/2001, 3rd stands for the 2009 crisis, and 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 indicates the number of lags of independent variables

1.2 Detailed Results Tables (Tables 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11)

Table 3 Stepwise regression results for the 1994 crisis
Full size table
Table 4 Probit regression results for the 1994 crisis
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Table 5 Logit regression results for the 1994 crisis
Full size table
Table 6 Stepwise regression results for the twin crises
Full size table
Table 7 Probit regression results for the twin crises
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Table 8 Logit regression results for the twin crises
Full size table
Table 9 Stepwise regression results for the 2009 crisis
Full size table
Table 10 Probit regression results for the 2009 crisis
Full size table
Table 11 Logit regression results for the 2009 crisis
Full size table

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Kaakeh, M., Gökmenoğlu, K.K. (2022). Leading Indicators of Turkey’s Financial Crises. In: Özataç, N., Gökmenoğlu, K.K., Rustamov, B. (eds) New Dynamics in Banking and Finance. Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93725-6_2

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