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Assessment of Climate Variability on Wheat Productivity in Egypt

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Climate-Smart Agriculture

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Abstract

In this chapter, multiple regression analysis was employed to find out which weather element have contributed more in wheat productivity and how strong is the contribution. Two sets of data were used in the analysis. The first set composed of seasonal values of weather data for 10 years (2010–2019), namely solar radiation (SR, MJ/m2/day), maximum temperature (Mx, °C), minimum temperatures (Mn, °C) and relative humidity (RH, %) existed in each agro-climatic zone and the corresponded average values of wheat productivity in the zone. It was used to assess the spatial-variability of wheat zone-specific productivity from one agro-climatic zone to another, as a result of the studied weather elements in each zone. The second data set contained the above mentioned seasonal values collected for 34 years (1986–2019) in each agro-climatic zone and the corresponding values of national wheat productivity. It was used to determine the temporal-variability of national wheat productivity from year to year, as affected by the variability in each weather elements overall the agro-climatic zones. The results of first data set showed that seasonal Mx was the major contributor in wheat zone-specific productivity in a negative trend, in all agro-climatic zones, except the first agro-climatic zone. Seasonal Mn also negatively contributed in wheat zone-specific productivity in the second, third, fourth agro-climatic zones. Whereas, seasonal RH only contributed positively in the first agro-climatic zone and negatively in the second agro-climatic zone. Additionally, seasonal SR did not have any contribution in wheat zone-specific productivity. Furthermore, the analysis of the second data set revealed that there was higher variability existed in the studied climate elements in the past 10–12 years, compared to the rest of the data set. It also revealed that SR have a positive significant contribution in national wheat productivity in Zone1 and Zone4. Mx and Mn had a negative significant contribution in all zones. Furthermore, RH have a negative significant contribution Zone5 only. Thus, these results implied that the contribution of seasonal weather elements on zonal level, is different than its contribution of on the national level. Furthermore, these results ascertained that the Egyptian wheat cultivars are resilient to climate variability and possess yield stability traits because it have been exposed to unfavorable weather conditions caused variability in its production, with insignificant reduction.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Requirements and Field Irrigation Research Department, Soils, Water and Environment Research Institute; Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt

    Samiha Ouda

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  1. Samiha Ouda
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Ouda, S. (2022). Assessment of Climate Variability on Wheat Productivity in Egypt. In: Climate-Smart Agriculture. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93111-7_7

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