Abstract
Under the current statutory retirement age of 60 for male employees, 50 for female workers and 55 for female cadres, pension annuity divisors at these ages in China is 139 months, 195 months and 170 months. However, the annuity divisors were set in 2005, which cannot meet the background of life expectancy improvement in China, which will bring natural pressure to the operation of basic pension insurance for employees. In this paper, by constructing Gompertz model, Kannisto model and the life table of the elderly over 65, the life expectancy at 65, mortality rate aged 65–79 (15 q 65) were calculated in China and its provinces in 2015, and the provincial spatial distribution characteristics of the elderly life expectancy were analysed.
The results show that: (1) There is a large spatial imbalance in the elderly life expectancy at 65 among provinces in China; (2) Elderly life expectancy at 65 was over 18 years for male and over 21 years for female in China in 2015, which means that the pension annuity divisors in China should be promoted to over 150 months under China’s Gradual Delayed Retirement Plan in the future. The calculation results provide a theoretical basis from the perspective of mortality change for optimizing the setting of the annuity divisors for the statutory individual account of basic pension insurance, and provide a numerical reference for the formulation of China’s Gradual Delayed Retirement Plan and the promotion of the National Pooling of pension insurance accounts.
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Acknowledgements
Research supported by the Major Program of the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No.21ZDA101), Research on the development of a multi-level and multi-pillar pension insurance system.
Research supported by the Major Program of the Provincial Social Science Planning Foundation of Zhejiang (Grant No.19YSXK03ZD), From “getting old before getting rich” to “gradually getting rich and aging quickly”: Multi-state prediction of China’s population aging and simulation research on pension policies (2018–2070).
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Li, Y., Li, N., Mi, H. (2022). Life Expectancy and Different Parameter Identification in Chinese Retirement Plan. In: Skiadas, C.H., Skiadas, C. (eds) Quantitative Methods in Demography. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 52. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93005-9_32
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93005-9_32
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