Development of Tools for Managing Economic Risks When Designing Well Pattern to Implement the Sustainable Development Concept

Abstract

The paper aims to develop a method for assessing the economic risks associated with designing the optimal density of wells of oil facilities through adaptational geological and field models. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research includes scientific works devoted to the theory and practice of risk assessment in subsoil use, including in the field of oil and gas production. The methodological basis includes a systematic approach to the studied processes, methods of comparative analysis, systematization and synthesis of doctrinal provisions and practical materials, analytical procedures, and other methods. The paper identifies and analyzes the risks accompanying the design of the optimal density of the well pattern. These risks include geological (the difference of heterogeneity coefficient, sandiness, oil saturation, permeability, porosity, etc.), physical and chemical (the difference of oil viscosity, oil density, tar and asphaltene content in oil, etc.), and economic (changes in crude oil prices, electricity tariff, capital costs, and other operating costs). Of the listed risks, the authors identify the factors predetermining the emergence of economic risks and determine their importance. The authors propose a comprehensive methodology for assessing the risks associated with designing the optimal density of well pattern based on sensitivity analysis and the method of scenarios. The proposed methodology allows one to identify the most significant risks and determine the likelihood of different project development scenarios.