Abstract
The general objective of the study was to estimate the depth and persistence of the I-shock COVID-19 pandemic on formal employment dynamics in Nuevo Leon, segmenting employment by labor skills and gender. Consistent micro-founded time series, from 1987:Q1 to 2020:Q1, were built using Mexican urban employment surveys to estimate a VAR model linking ITAEE to each market segment. Results show that high-skill employment is elastic to COVID-19 economic I-shock, but recovery is faster, while low-skill employment is the opposite; high and low-skill female employment increased, which reduced the relative gender gap. This multidimensional crisis suggests crafting policies to invest in human capital to have a high-skill labor market and achieve gender equity. This chapter contributes as the first regional study to recover the employment structure by skill gender and estimate the loss and potential recovery of employment resulting from the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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See Fig. 5.3.
(p-value: 0.001***, 0.01**, 0.05*. Source: Own estimations with time series constructed and homologized of employment surveys (ENEU-ENE-ENOE). Seasonally adjusted series presented by growth rates)
VAR model: estimation and Impulse-Response Functions (IRLs)
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Cuellar, C.Y., Moreno, J.O. (2022). The Structural Impact of COVID-19 on Employment: The Role of Skills and Gender in an Industrialized Local Economy. In: López-Fernández, A.M., Terán-Bustamante, A. (eds) Business Recovery in Emerging Markets . Palgrave Studies in Democracy, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship for Growth. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-91532-2_5
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