Abstract
Kondratiev’s long economic cycle has been dubbed one of the most debatable macroeconomic phenomena for over half a century. This paper considers an intrinsic link between Kondratiev’s long waves and the Schumpeterian growth paradigm. The research recognizes a significant contribution of such economists as G. Mensch, Ch. Freeman and M. Hirooka in the evolution of the Kondratiev–Schumpeter’s theory of innovative cyclical economic development. What is more, this paper thoroughly examines the diffusion of innovations (DOI) theory, together with the Hirooka’s innovative paradigm. The research reveals an important role of S. Dubovsky in designing a mathematical procedure used for the assessment of technological capacity. According to the results of the research, Kondratiev–Schumpeter’s theory of innovative cyclical economic development can lay a foundation for economists to design comprehensive patterns of economic growth that will address the most recent economic trends. Overall, the underlying idea of this paper is that governments should draw on Kondratiev–Schumpeter’s theory while strategizing their long-term economic and financial policies. This is primarily due to the fact that all the parameters of economic trajectory—in disequilibrium within long waves—prove to be reliably predicted and estimated by calculation.
Selected portions of this chapter have appeared previously in Akaev, A. A., & Rudskoi, A. I. (2017). Economic potential of breakthrough technologies and its social consequences. In Devezas, T., Leitão, J., & Sarygulov, A. (Eds.), Industry 4.0. Studies on entrepreneurship, structural change and industrial dynamics. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49604-7_2.
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Akaev, A., Devezas, T., Tick, A. (2022). K-Waves and the Innovation-Technological Paradigm of Schumpeter–Mensch–Freeman–Hirooka. In: Rudskoi, A., Akaev, A., Devezas, T. (eds) Digital Transformation and the World Economy. Studies on Entrepreneurship, Structural Change and Industrial Dynamics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-89832-8_3
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