Abstract
The Reduced SIR (RSIR) model of COVID-19 pandemic based on a two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equation with retarded time argument is developed. An algorithm aimed to forecast the COVID-19 pandemic development by approximate solution of RSIR model is proposed. The input data for this algorithm are the cumulative numbers of infected people on three dates (e.g., today, a week ago, and two weeks ago).
The work was partially supported by the RUDN University Program 5-100, grant of Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Kazakhstan in JINR (2020), and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Science and Sports of Mongolia (grant No. 20-51-44001) and the Bogoliubov-Infeld JINR program.
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Pen’kov, F.M. et al. (2021). Approximate Solutions of the RSIR Model of COVID-19 Pandemic. In: Byrski, A., Czachórski, T., Gelenbe, E., Grochla, K., Murayama, Y. (eds) Computer Science Protecting Human Society Against Epidemics. ANTICOVID 2021. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, vol 616. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86582-5_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86582-5_6
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