Skip to main content

Stochastic Integrated Supplier Selection and Disruption Risk Assessment Under Ripple Effect

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Advances in Production Management Systems. Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable and Resilient Production Systems (APMS 2021)

Abstract

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the supply chain (SC) evokes the need for valid measures to cope with the SC disruption risk. Supplier selection and disruption risk assessment, as valid measures, have received increasing attentions from academia. However, most of existing works focus on supplier selection and disruption risk assessment separately. This work investigates an integrated supplier selection and disruption risk assessment problem under ripple effect. The objective is to minimize the weighted sum of the disrupted probability and the total cost for the manufacturer. For the problem, a new stochastic programming model combined with Bayesian network (BN) is formulated. Then, an illustrative example is conducted to demonstrate the proposed method.

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under Grants 72021002, 71771048, 71432007, 71832001 and 72071144.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Ivanov, D., Dolgui, A.: OR-methods for coping with the ripple effect in supply chains during COVID-19 pandemic: managerial insights and research implications. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 232, 107921 (2021)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Ivanov, D., Das, A.: Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) and supply chain resilience: a research note. Int. J. Integr. Supply Manage. 13(1), 90–102 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Queiroz, M.M., Ivanov, D., Dolgui, A., Fosso Wamba, S.: Impacts of epidemic outbreaks on supply chains: mapping a research agenda amid the COVID-19 pandemic through a structured literature review. Ann. Oper. Res. 16, 1–38 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-020-03685-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Ivanov, D.: Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: a simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case. Transp. Res. Part E 136, 101922 (2020)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Dolgui, A., Ivanov, D., Rozhkov, M.: Does the ripple effect influence the bullwhip effect? An integrated analysis of structural and operational dynamics in the supply chain. Int. J. Prod. Res. 58(5), 1285–1301 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Ivanov, D., Dolgui, A., Sokolov, B. (eds.): Handbook of Ripple Effects in the Supply Chain. ISORMS, vol. 276. Springer, Cham (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14302-2

    Book  Google Scholar 

  7. Ivanov, D., Dolgui, A., Sokolov, B., Ivanova, M.: Literature review on disruption recovery in the supply chain. Int. J. Prod. Res. 55(20), 6158–6174 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Ivanov, D., Dolgui, A.: A digital supply chain twin for managing the disruption risks and resilience in the era of Industry 4.0. Prod. Plann. Control 32(9), 775–778 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1080/09537287.2020.1768450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Pavlov, A., Ivanov, D., Werner, F., Dolgui, A., Sokolov, B.: Integrated detection of disruption scenarios, the ripple effect dispersal and recovery paths in supply chains. Ann. Oper. Res. 1–23 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03454-1

  10. Dolgui, A., Ivanov, D.: Ripple effect and supply chain disruption management: new trends and research directions. Int. J. Prod. Res. 59(1), 102–109 (2021)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Tang, C.S.: Perspectives in supply chain risk management. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 103(2), 451–488 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Sawik, T.: Disruption mitigation and recovery in supply chains using portfolio approach. Omega 84, 232–248 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Sawik, T.: Selection of resilient supply portfolio under disruption risks. Omega 41(2), 259–269 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Kinra, A., Ivanov, D., Das, A., Dolgui, A.: Ripple effect quantification by supplier risk exposure assessment. Int. J. Prod. Res. 58(18), 5559–5578 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Hosseini, S., Khaled, A.A., Sarder, M.D.: A general framework for assessing system resilience using Bayesian networks: a case study of sulfuric acid manufacturer. J. Manuf. Syst. 41, 211–227 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Hosseini, S., Ivanov, D.: A new resilience measure for supply networks with the ripple effect considerations: a Bayesian network approach. Ann. Oper. Res. 1–27 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03350-8

  17. Hosseini, S., Ivanov, D., Dolgui, A.: Ripple effect modelling of supplier disruption: integrated Markov chain and dynamic Bayesian network approach. Int. J. Prod. Res. 58(11), 3284–3303 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Liu, M., Liu, Z., Chu, F., Zheng, F., Chu, C.: A new robust dynamic Bayesian network approach for disruption risk assessment under the supply chain ripple effect. Int. J. Prod. Res. 59(1), 265–285 (2021)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Sawik, T.: A cyclic versus flexible approach to materials ordering in make-to-order assembly. Math. Comput. Model. 42(3–4), 279–290 (2005)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  20. Sawik, T.: Single vs. multiple objective supplier selection in a make to order environment. Omega 38(3–4), 203–212 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Sawik, T.: Selection of supply portfolio under disruption risks. Omega 39(2), 194–208 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Sawik, T.: Integrated supply chain scheduling under multi-level disruptions. IFAC-PapersOnLine 48(3), 1515–1520 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Sawik, T.: A portfolio approach to supply chain disruption management. Int. J. Prod. Res. 55(7), 1970–1991 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Sawik, T.: On the risk-averse selection of resilient multi-tier supply portfolio. Omega 101, 102267 (2021)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Feng Chu .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2021 IFIP International Federation for Information Processing

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Liu, M., Liu, Z., Chu, F., Zheng, F., Chu, C. (2021). Stochastic Integrated Supplier Selection and Disruption Risk Assessment Under Ripple Effect. In: Dolgui, A., Bernard, A., Lemoine, D., von Cieminski, G., Romero, D. (eds) Advances in Production Management Systems. Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable and Resilient Production Systems. APMS 2021. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, vol 632. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85906-0_75

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85906-0_75

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-85905-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-85906-0

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics