Overview
- Presents a ground-breaking agent-based simulation model of migration
- Connects behavioural and social theory with modelling and statistics
- This book is available open access and free to read online
- Discusses the building of a simulation model of migration
Part of the book series: Methodos Series (METH, volume 17)
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Table of contents (11 chapters)
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Front Matter
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Preliminaries
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Front Matter
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Elements of the Modelling Process
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Front Matter
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Model Results, Applications, and Reflections
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Front Matter
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Back Matter
Keywords
About this book
This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.
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Authors and Affiliations
About the author
Jakub Bijak is Professor of Statistical Demography at the University of Southampton. He has background in economics (PhD 2008, Warsaw School of Economics) and over 20 years’ work experience in academia and international civil service. His research focuses on demographic uncertainty, population and migration models and forecasts, and the demography of armed conflict. He has been awarded the Allianz European Demographer Award (2015) and the Jerzy Z Holzer Medal (2007) for work on migration modelling. Leader of a European Research Council project “Bayesian agent-based population studies” (www.baps-project.eu), and a Horizon 2020 project “QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy” (www.quantmig.eu).
Bibliographic Information
Book Title: Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography
Book Subtitle: Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies
Authors: Jakub Bijak
Series Title: Methodos Series
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-83039-7
Publisher: Springer Cham
eBook Packages: Social Sciences, Social Sciences (R0)
Copyright Information: The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2022
Hardcover ISBN: 978-3-030-83038-0Published: 10 December 2021
Softcover ISBN: 978-3-030-83041-0Published: 10 December 2021
eBook ISBN: 978-3-030-83039-7Published: 09 December 2021
Series ISSN: 1572-7750
Series E-ISSN: 2542-9892
Edition Number: 1
Number of Pages: XXV, 263
Number of Illustrations: 46 illustrations in colour
Topics: Demography, Statistics for Social Sciences, Humanities, Law, Migration