The Growing Influence of the Catholic Latino Vote

Abstract

The 2020 presidential election was one of the most contentious in US history, with nearly 160 million ballots and a turnout rate of 66.8%. Moreover, with the Democratic candidate, former vice president Joe Biden, being Catholic, there was substantial speculation during the campaign how the Catholic vote ultimately would break out in the election. The fastest-growing component of the Catholic vote in the United States is Latino, and some observers speculated during the campaign that Latinos generally could tip the balance to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, given the significant percentages of Latino voters in several critical states in the Electoral College. The issue of Catholic Latino voters is complex because the Latino category is not monolithic, as many of the Latino demographic groups have different political preferences. Meanwhile, younger generations, including Latinos, are leaving religion behind, making it unclear how this trend will impact Latino voting behavior. The Catholic component of the Latino population is also in decline. Meanwhile, there are consistent trends among Latinos, including their still strong preference for the Democrat Party and their overall increasing population in the country. In 2020, the Latino vote, though not critical to the outcome, helped Joe Biden’s successful quest to become president. The question however remains whether the Democrat Party can continue to hold the Latino vote into the future.