Abstract
Since the 1970s, the US criminal justice system has favored a determinate approach to sentencing involving sentencing guidelines and mandatory minimums. One of the consequences of this shift has been the massive growth of incarceration rates. Some scholars and policy experts have recommended incorporating risk assessment into sentencing as a way to reduce prison populations without compromising community safety. In this chapter, we explore the use of risk assessment in state and federal sentencing as a strategy for criminal justice reform. We examine states that adopted this approach and evaluate the empirical outcome literature to determine the extent to which risk assessment achieves its intended ends. We identify several challenges to the implementation of risk assessment, particularly, the impact of this approach on racial and ethnic minorities who are already disproportionately likely to be incarcerated. We conclude this chapter with several suggestions from the literature on how jurisdictions might incorporate democratically accountable risk assessment into sentencing as a broader criminal justice reform strategy.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Alexander, M. (2012). The new Jim Crow: Mass incarceration in the age of colorblindness. New Press.
American Law Institute. (2014, April 24). Model penal code: Sentencing, tentative draft no. 3. Robina Institute of Criminal Law and Criminal Justice. https://robinainstitute.umn.edu/publications/model-penal-code-sentencing-tentative-draft-no-3
Andrews, D. A., Bonta, J., & Wormith, J. S. (2006). The recent past and near future of risk and/or need assessment. Crime & Delinquency, 52(1), 7–27. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128705281756
Angwin, J., Larson, J., Mattu, S., & Kirchner, L. (2016, May 23). Machine bias. ProPublica. https://www.propublica.org/article/machine-bias-risk-assessments-in-criminal-sentencing
Baird, C., Healy, T., Johnson, K., Bogie, A., Dankert, E. W., & Scharenbroch, C. (2013). A comparison of risk assessment instruments in juvenile justice. Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, Office of Justice Programs, US Department of Justice. https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/grants/244477.pdf
Barnes-Ceeney, K. (2013). Negotiating labyrinths of risk: The impact and implementation of a structured violence risk assessment instrument in juvenile parole. City University of New York.
Beccaria, C. (1986). On crimes and punishments (D. Young, Trans.). Hackett Publishing Company. (Original work published 1764).
Bentham, J. (1988). The principles of morals and legislation. Prometheus.
Bonta, J., & Motiuk, L. L. (1987). The diversion of incarcerated offenders to correctional halfway houses. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 24(4), 302–323. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427887024004006
Brooks, T. (2013). Punishment. Routledge.
Bureau of Prisons. (2020, January 15). AG released update on the new Risk and Needs Assessment System. Federal Bureau of Prisons: FSA Update. https://www.bop.gov/resources/news/20200115_fsa_update.jsp
California State Auditor. (2019). California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation—Several poor administrative practices have hindered reductions in recidivism and denied inmates access to in-prison rehabilitation programs. Auditor of the State of California. https://www.auditor.ca.gov/pdfs/reports/2018-113.pdf
Carson, E. A. (2014, September 30). Prisoners in 2013. US Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, NCJ, 247282. https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p13.pdf
Christopher, R. L. (2003). The prosecutor’s dilemma: Bargains and punishments. Fordham Law Review, 72(1), 93–168. http://fordhamlawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/assets/pdfs/Vol_72/Christopher_October.pdf
DeMichele, M., Baumgartner, P., Barrick, K., Comfort, M., Scaggs, S., & Misra, S. (2018, April 25). What do criminal justice professionals think about risk assessment at pretrial? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3168490
Eaglin, J. M. (2017). Constructing recidivism risk. Emory Law Journal, 67(1), 59–122. https://law.emory.edu/elj/content/volume-67/issue-1/articles/constructing-recidivism-risk.html
Farrar-Owens, M. (2013). The evolution of sentencing guidelines in Virginia: An example of the importance of standardized and automated felony sentencing data. Federal Sentencing Reporter, 25(3), 168–170. https://doi.org/10.1525/fsr.2013.25.3.168
Farrell, D. M. (1985). The justification of general deterrence. The Philosophical Review, 94(3), 367–394. https://doi.org/10.2307/2185005
First Step Act of 2018, S.756, Congress, 115th. (2018). https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/756/text
Frase, R. S. (2013). Just sentencing: Principles and procedures for a workable system. Oxford University Press.
Fratello, J., Salsich, A., & Mogulescu, S. (2011). Juvenile detention reform in New York City: Measuring risk through research. Federal Sentencing Reporter, 24(1), 15–20. https://doi.org/10.1525/fsr.2011.24.1.15
Garrett, B. L. (2018, December 27). The prison reform bill’s implementation will be tricky: Here’s how to ensure it’s a success. Slate Magazine. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/12/prison-reform-bill-success.html
Garrett, B. L., Jakubow, A., & Monahan, J. (2019). Judicial reliance on risk assessment in sentencing drug and property offenders: A test of the treatment resource hypothesis. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 46(6), 799–810. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854819842589
Garrett, B. L., & Monahan, J. (2020). Judging risk. California Law Review, 108(2), 439–494. https://lawcat.berkeley.edu/record/1161691
Goldman, A. H. (1979). The paradox of punishment. Philosophy & Public Affairs, 9(1), 42–58.
Grove, W. M., Zald, D. H., Lebow, B. S., Snitz, B. E., & Nelson, C. (2000). Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment, 12(1), 19–30. https://doi.org/10.1037/1040-3590.12.1.19
Harcourt, B. E. (2015). Risk as a proxy for race: The dangers of risk assessment. Federal Sentencing Reporter, 27(4), 237–243. https://doi.org/10.1525/fsr.2015.27.4.237
Hegel, G. W. F. (1991). Hegel: Elements of the philosophy of right. (A. W. Wood, Ed.; H. B. Nisbet, Trans.; Revised ed.). Cambridge University Press.
Hoge, R. D. (2002). Standardized instruments for assessing risk and need in youthful offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 29(4), 380–396. https://doi.org/10.1177/009385480202900403
Holder, E. (2014, August 1). Attorney General Eric Holder speaks at the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers 57th Annual Meeting and 13th State Criminal Justice Network Conference. The United States Department of Justice, Office of Public Affairs. https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-eric-holder-speaks-national-association-criminal-defense-lawyers-57th
Hyatt, J., & Chanenson, S. L. (2016). The use of risk assessment at sentencing: Implications for research and policy. Villanova Law/Public Policy, Research Paper No. 2017–1040. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2961288
Jung, S., Brown, K., Ennis, L., & Ledi, D. (2015). The association between presentence risk evaluations and sentencing outcome. Applied Psychology in Criminal Justice, 11(2), 111–125.
Kant, I. (2002). Groundwork for the metaphysics of morals. (A. W. Wood Ed.; A. W. Wood, Trans. Yale University Press.
Kern, R. P., & Farrar-Owens, M. (2004). Sentencing guidelines with integrated offender risk assessment. Federal Sentencing Reporter, 16(3), 165–169. https://doi.org/10.1525/fsr.2004.16.3.165
Kleiman, M., Ostrom, B. J., & Cheesman, F. L. (2007). Using risk assessment to inform sentencing decisions for nonviolent offenders in Virginia. Crime & Delinquency, 53(1), 106–132. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128706294442
Kopkin, M. R., Brodsky, S. L., & DeMatteo, D. (2017). Risk assessment in sentencing decisions: A remedy to mass incarceration? Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 9(2), 155–164. https://doi.org/10.1108/JACPR-06-2016-0232
Kraemer, H. C., Kazdin, A. E., Offord, D. R., Kessler, R. C., Jensen, P. S., & Kupfer, D. J. (1997). Coming to terms with the terms of risk. Archives of General Psychiatry, 54(4), 337–343. https://doi.org/10.1001/archpsyc.1997.01830160065009
Latessa, E. J., & Lovins, B. (2010). The role of offender risk assessment: A policy maker guide. Victims and Offenders, 5(3), 203–219. https://doi.org/10.1080/15564886.2010.485900
Lenhardt, R. A. (2004). Understanding the mark: Race, stigma, and equality in context. New York University Law Review, 79(3), 803–931. https://www.nyulawreview.org/issues/volume-79-number-3/understanding-the-mark-race-stigma-and-equality-in-context/
Metz, A., Monahan, J., Garrett, B., & Siebert, L. (2019). Risk and resources: A qualitative perspective on low-level sentencing in Virginia. Journal of Community Psychology, 47(6), 1476–1492. https://doi.org/10.1002/jcop.22199
Metz, A., Monahan, J., Siebert, L., & Garrett, B. L. (2020). Valid or voodoo: A qualitative study of attorney attitudes towards risk assessment in sentencing and plea bargaining. Journal of Community Psychology, 48(6), 2053–2068. https://doi.org/10.1002/jcop.22404
Monahan, J., Metz, A. L., & Garrett, B. L. (2018). Judicial appraisals of risk assessment in sentencing. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 36(5), 565–575. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsl.2380
Monahan, J., Metz, A., Garrett, B. L., & Jakubow, A. (2020). Risk assessment in sentencing and plea bargaining: The roles of prosecutors and defense attorneys. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 38(1), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsl.2435
Monahan, J., & Skeem, J. L. (2014). Risk redux: The resurgence of risk assessment in criminal sanctioning. Federal Sentencing Reporter, 26(3), 158–166. https://doi.org/10.1525/fsr.2014.26.3.158
Monahan, J., & Skeem, J. L. (2016). Risk assessment in criminal sentencing. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, 12(1), 489–513. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-clinpsy-021815-092945
Moore, M. S. (2010). Placing blame: A theory of the criminal law. Oxford University Press.
Morris, N. (1974). The future of imprisonment. University of Chicago Press.
Ostrom, B., Kleiman, M., Cheesman, F., Hansen, R., & Kauder, N. B. (2002). Offender risk assessment in Virginia: A three-stage evaluation. National Center for State Courts.
Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing. (n.d.). Risk assessment. Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing. Retrieved June 9, 2020, from http://pcs.la.psu.edu/publications-and-research/research-and-evaluation-reports/risk-assessment/
Ryberg, J. (2020). Risk-based sentencing and predictive accuracy. Ethical Theory and Moral Practice, 23(1), 251–263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10677-020-10066-3
Sawyner, W., & Wagner, P. (2020). Mass incarceration: The whole pie 2020. Prison Policy Institute. https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/pie2020.html
Serin, R. C., Lloyd, C. D., & Hanby, L. J. (2010). Enhancing offender re-entry an integrated model for enhancing offender re-Entry. European Journal of Probation, 2(2), 53–75. https://doi.org/10.1177/206622031000200205
Skeem, J., & Eno Louden, J. (2007). Assessment of evidence on the quality of the Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS). Unpublished Report Prepared for the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation. http://risk-resilience.berkeley.edu/journal-article/assessment-evidence-quality-correctional-offender-management-profiling-alternative
Skeem, J. L., & Lowenkamp, C. T. (2016). Risk, race, and recidivism: Predictive bias and disparate impact. Criminology, 54(4), 680–712. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12123
Skeem, J. L., & Monahan, J. (2020). Lost in translation: “Risks,” “needs,” and “evidence” in implementing the First Step Act. Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory, Research Paper No. 2020–12. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3531992.
Skeem, J., Monahan, J., & Lowenkamp, C. (2016). Gender, risk assessment, and sanctioning: The cost of treating women like men. Law and Human Behavior, 40(5), 580–593. https://doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000206
Stevenson, M. (2018). Assessing risk assessment in action. Minnesota Law Review, 103(1), 303–384. https://minnesotalawreview.org/article/assessing-risk-assessment-in-action/
Stevenson, M. T., & Slobogin, C. (2018). Algorithmic risk assessments and the double-edged sword of youth. Behavioral Sciences & Law, 36(5), 638–656. https://doi.org/10.1002/bsl.2384
Thompson, M. (2020). 2020 adult sentencing & release guidelines. Utah Sentencing Commission. https://justice.utah.gov/Sentencing/Guidelines/Adult/2020%20Adult%20Sentencing%20and%20Release%20Guidelines.pdf
Ullrich, S., & Coid, J. (2011). Protective factors for violence among released prisoners—Effects over time and interactions with static risk. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 79(3), 381–390. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0023613
van Wingerden, S., van Wilsem, J., & Moerings, M. (2014). Pre-sentence reports and punishment: A quasi-experiment assessing the effects of risk-based pre-sentence reports on sentencing. European Journal of Criminology, 11(6), 723–744. https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370814525937
Viljoen, J. L., Jonnson, M. R., Cochrane, D. M., Vargen, L. M., & Vincent, G. M. (2019). Impact of risk assessment instruments on rates of pretrial detention, postconviction placements, and release: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Law and Human Behavior, 43(5), 397–420. https://doi.org/10.1037/lhb0000344
Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission. (2019). Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission: 2019 annual report. Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission. http://www.vcsc.virginia.gov/2019VCSCAnnualReport.pdf
Weisberg, R., & Petersilia, J. (2010). The dangers of Pyrrhic victories against mass incarceration. Daedalus, 139(3), 124–133. https://www.jstor.org/stable/20749847
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Metz, A., Adams, M. (2022). Risk Assessment in Sentencing. In: Jeglic, E., Calkins, C. (eds) Handbook of Issues in Criminal Justice Reform in the United States. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77565-0_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77565-0_12
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-77564-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-77565-0
eBook Packages: Law and CriminologyLaw and Criminology (R0)