Traffic Safety in India and Vision Zero

Abstract

This chapter presents the current state of traffic safety in India and a brief overview of history of traffic safety policies in India. The road safety policy adopted by the Government of India does not have any specific targets; however, the government has accepted the UN sustainable development goals (SDG) and targets in 2016. SDG 3.6 is related to road traffic injuries, and it requires that the fatalities due to road traffic crashes must be reduced by 50% by 2030. The last section of the chapter presents a roadmap for selected cities in India for achieving SDG target 3.6 by 2030 and discusses the results in the context of “Vision Zero” for India.

Dinesh Mohan: deceased.

Introduction

“Vision Zero” is a landmark safety policy. It was introduced in Sweden at a time when Swedish roads and transport system were considered one of the safest systems in the world. Most countries have traditionally accepted that health losses due to accidents are a major, but to some extent acceptable, consequences of mobility. Contrary to this, the Swedish parliament in October 1997 opined that the long-term target for the road transport system should be that no one should be killed or receive long-term disablement by the system (Claes Tingvall 1998; Claes Tingvall and Haworth 1999). The Vision is an expression of ethical imperative that “It can never be ethically acceptable that people are killed or seriously injured when moving within the road transport system” (Claes Tingvall and Haworth 1999).

Vision Zero demands that the loss of human life in the road transport system is unacceptable, and therefore the transport system should be designed in a way that such events do not occur. This means that safety is a more important issue than other issues in the road transport system (except for health-related environmental issues). Mobility, therefore, should follow from safety and cannot be obtained at the expense of safety. Prior to the introduction of the Swedish Vision Zero concept, Dr. William Haddon in the USA had proposed that road traffic injuries be considered a serious public health problem and provided a structured method of analyzing and developing targeted interventions for safety (Haddon 1970, 1980). Charles Perrow introduced a structural analysis of complex systems, highlighting the notion of systemic error rather than an individual’s error in high-risk systems (Perrow 1984). Vision Zero brought in the “Ethical Imperative” in the traffic safety debate.

That road traffic injuries (RTI) should be considered a public health problem has been accepted for decades (Gibson 1961; Haddon 1963, 1968). In 1962, L.G. Norman, who was the Chief Technical Officer of the London Transport Executive, prepared a report for the WHO in which he stated that “It has even been suggested that the limit of human performance is being reached in this respect and that the consequent accidents are the inevitable price of motorization. This view should not be accepted” and that “As a public health problem, road accidents are amenable to treatment by the methodology applied to epidemic disease, including the detailed investigation of individual incidents and the application of epidemiological techniques” (Norman 1962). However, RTI is the only public health problem where society and decision-makers still accept death and disability on such a large scale as inevitable (Mohan 2003). This human sacrifice is deemed necessary to maintain high levels of mobility and is seen as a necessary “externality” of doing business. Discussion only revolves around the number of deaths and injuries we are willing to accept. This is made clear in the opening paragraph of the US Highway Safety Manual: “There is no such thing as absolute safety. There is risk in all highway transportation. A universal objective is to reduce the number and severity of crashes within the limits of available resources, science, and technology, while meeting legislatively mandated priorities” (AASHTO 2010). A complete departure from this mode of thinking is “Vision Zero” that originated in Sweden. In October 1997, the Road Traffic Safety Bill founded on Vision Zero was passed by a large majority in the Swedish parliament (Tingvall1997; ““Vision Zero” in perspective of global generalization,” 1998).

This chapter presents the current state of traffic safety in India and the issues surrounding the possibility of moving toward Vision Zero. A brief overview of history of traffic safety policies in India is presented to set the context. The road safety policy adopted by the Government of India (https://morth.nic.in/national-road-safety-policy-1) does not have any specific targets; however, the government has accepted the UN sustainable development goals (SDG) and targets in 2016. (https://niti.gov.in/index.php/verticals/sustainable-dev-goals) SDG 3.6 is related to road traffic injuries.

National Road Traffic Injury Fatality Rate

According to official statistics, 151,417 persons were killed and 469,418 injured in road traffic crashes in India in 2018 (Transport Research Wing 2019). However, this is probably an underestimate, as not all injuries are reported to the police (Bhalla et al. 2017, Mohan et al. 2009, Gururaj 2006). The actual number of injuries requiring hospital visits may be 2,000,000–3,000,000. In GBD 2010, it was estimated that there were 2.2 million injuries in India that warranted hospital admission, and 18 million injuries warranted an emergency room visit (Bhalla et al. 2014). Road traffic injuries (RTI) in India have been increasing over the past 50 years (Fig. 1). This may be partly due to the increase in the number of vehicles on the road but mainly due to the absence of coordinated evidence-based policy to control the problem. These data show that the number of fatalities has continued to increase at about 70% a year over 2000–2010, a slight lower rate over the past decade.

Fig. 1

Road traffic deaths in India from 1970 through 2018. (Source: NCRB 2015 and Transport Research Wing 2019)

Ranking in Causes of Death and Population Health

Figure 2 shows the top ten causes of years of life lost (YLLs) in India in 2017 and percent change between 2007 and 2017 for all ages (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) 2018). This figure shows that injuries resulting from road traffic crashes impose a substantial burden on the health of the population in India. Road traffic injuries are the ninth leading cause of premature death in India, and this exceeds the number of those who succumb to many diseases like malaria and HIV that are acknowledged to be important health issues in the country.

Fig. 2

Top ten causes of years of life lost (YLLs) in India in 2017 and percent change between 2007 and 2017 for all ages. (Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME 2018))

Figure 3 shows that over the last two and a half decades, the burden of road traffic injuries in India has increased, while that due to many infectious diseases has declined. In 1990, road traffic injuries were the 16th leading cause of health loss. However, in 2016 they were ranked tenth due to an increase of 65% in disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to road traffic injuries (Indian Council of Medical Research, Public Health Foundation of India, & Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) 2017).

Fig. 3

Change in DALYs number and rate for the leading individual causes in India from 1990 to 2016. (Source: Indian Council of Medical Research, Public Health Foundation of India, & Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) 2017)

International Comparison

The 2018 WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety provides two sets of road traffic death statistics for every country (WHO 2018). These are the official government statistics (usually based on police data) reported by each country to the WHO and statistical estimates produced by the WHO by analysis of national health data (including vital registration) for each country. Figure 4 shows the official RTI fatality rates for different countries plotted against per capita income of the countries, and Fig. 5 shows the rates for the same countries as estimated by the WHO (WHO 2018). These figures show that for 43% of the countries, the WHO estimates are 1.5 times greater, and for 26% more than 3 times greater than the official rates are reported by the countries.

Fig. 4

RTI fatality rate per 100,000 persons reported by different countries vs per capita income. (Source: WHO 2018)

Fig. 5

RTI fatality rate per 100,000 persons as estimated by WHO for different countries vs per capita income. (Source: WHO 2018)

The ratio of the WHO estimate and the official rate for different countries is shown in Fig. 6. The ratio for India is 2.0 as the official reported rate is 11.4 deaths per 100,000 persons and the WHO estimate is 22.6. These data indicate that some countries with similar incomes have lower levels of underreporting and some with higher income levels have also have higher levels of underreporting. This suggests that lower national income levels cannot be taken as an excuse for inefficient data collection systems and it is possible for countries like India to set up professionally managed data collection systems that give a reasonably accurate estimate of RTI fatalities. Systematic collection requires streamlining police data at State level, establishing a system like FARS (Fatal Accident Recording System) in the USA.

Fig. 6

Ratio of the WHO estimates and official RTI fatality rate per 100,000 persons for different countries vs per capita income. (Source: WHO 2018)

Both the official country data and the WHO estimates (Figs. 4 and 5) show that there are countries with incomes similar to India that have RTI fatality rates lower than India. Again, demonstrating that lack of finances does not necessarily mean that a society has to have absence of safety on the roads. Of course there are many factors other than income that affect crash fatality rates. However, income is considered an important factor. At the same time, many countries much richer than India have much higher fatality rates. Therefore, we cannot depend on growth in national income alone to promote road safety. It will be necessary to put in place evidence-based national safety policies to ensure improvements in traffic safety.

Analysis of Data at the National Level

National Fatality Rates

Figure 7 shows the official estimates for the total number of RTI fatalities and fatalities per 100,000 persons in India from 1970 to 2018 (Transport Research Wing 2019). The total number of deaths in 2018 was 10 times greater than in 1970 with an average annual compound growth rate (AACGR) of 6%, and the fatality rate in 2018 was 4.3 times greater than in 1970 with an AACGR of 4%. There are indications that the rate of growth of fatalities in India decreased after 2010. There have been a few periods when the absolute growth in RTI fatalities decreased briefly, but the causes for the same are not known. However, it is known that motor vehicle crash rates have a tendency of decreasing along with a downturn in the national economy (International Traffic Safety Data and Analysis Group 2015):

Economic downturns are associated with less growth in traffic or a decline in traffic volumes. They are associated with a disproportionate reduction in the exposure of high-risk groups in traffic; in particular unemployment tends to be higher among young people than people in other age groups. Reductions in disposable income may be associated with more cautious road user behaviour, such as less drinking and driving, lower speed to save fuel, fewer holiday trips.

Fig. 7

Total number of RTI fatalities and fatalities per 100,000 persons in India. (Source: Transport Research Wing 2019)

This may explain the reason why the rate of growth in fatalities slowed down in India in the late 1990s and in the period 2010–2014 as these were also periods of low economic growth. Two modelling exercises have attempted to predict the time period over which we might expect fatality rates to decline in different countries (Koornstra 2007, Kopits and Cropper 2005).

Kopits and Cropper used the past experience of 88 countries to model the dependence of the total number of fatalities on fatality rates per unit vehicle, vehicles per unit population, and per capita income of the society. Thus, based on projections of future income growth, they predicted that fatalities in India will continue to rise until 2042 before reaching a total of about 198,000 deaths and then begin to decline. Koornstra used a cyclically modulated risk decay function model, which in a way incorporates the cyclically varying nature of a society’s concerns for safety and predicts an earlier date of 2030 for the start of decline in RTI fatalities in India. If we assume the average growth rate of 6% per year declines to nil by 2030, then we can expect about 200,000 fatalities in 2030 before we see a reduction in fatalities.

The above models use the experience of high-income countries (HIC) over the past decades in calculating relationships between vehicle ownership levels and risk of death per vehicle. Therefore, the models presuppose the onset of decline at specific per capita income levels if the past road safety policies of HICs are followed in the future in countries like India. These predictions are based on the assumption that the relationship between fatality rates and income follows a pattern as shown in Fig. 4. However, if the pattern is more like the one shown in Fig. 5, then these predictions would not be reliable. The relationship between national income and RTI fatality rates (initial increase in deaths with increasing incomes and a subsequent decrease) may not be entirely correct. Therefore, it is possible that the earlier claims that fatality rates will continue to increase until societies reach income levels between US$ 10,000 and 20,000 (2013 international prices) before decreasing are probably not correct.

Based on an analysis of RTI fatality trends in Europe and the USA, Brüde and Elvik (2015) suggest that:

A country does not at any time have an ‘optimal’ or ‘acceptable’ number of traffic fatalities. In countries with a growing number of traffic fatalities, one cannot count on this trend to turn by itself; active policy interventions are needed to turn the trend.

The trend shown in Fig. 4 is often used to justify that RTIs will increase until the per-capita income reaches 10 K USD. Elvik (2015) conclude that active policy interventions are required to turn the trend”. If this is true, then the only way the decline of RTI fatalities can be brought forward at time is to institute evidence-based India-specific road safety policies that are more effective .

Estimates of Modal Share of RTI Fatalities in India

Figure 8 shows estimates of the share of different road user fatalities as reported by MoRTH (Transport Research Wing 2019) and estimates made by Hsiao et al. (2013), the present authors (IIT Delhi estimate), and Dandona et al. (2020). Hsiao et al.’s estimates are based on a nationally representative mortality survey of 1.1 million homes in India which reported 122,000 RTI deaths, IIT Delhi estimate is based on an analysis of police records obtained from 8 cities (Delhi Traffic Police 2014, Mani and Tagat, 2013, Mohan et al. 2013) and a number of locations on rural roads around the country (Gururaj et al. 2014, Tiwari 2015, Tiwari et al. 2000, and Dandona et al.’s (2020) estimate is based on several verbal autopsy data sources.

Fig. 8

Estimates of the share of different road user fatalities in India. Note: MTW, motorized two-wheeler; TSR, three-wheeled scooter ricksha. (Source: Transport Research Wing 2019, Hsiao et al. 2013, GBD: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), IIT Delhi estimate – authors of the present report)

The MoRTH estimates suggest that pedestrian fatalities constitute only 15% of total RTI fatalities in the country. The Hsiao et al. (2013), IIT Delhi, and Dandona et al. (2020) estimates for share of pedestrian fatalities are 37%, 33%, and 35%, respectively. This is a very large gap between the official and researchers’ estimates. Since Hsiao et al. and Dandona et al. have estimated the fatalities from verbal autopsies with a statistically representative sample of households in India (a part of the sample registration system of the Registrar General of India), it is likely that their numbers are closer to the truth. The IIT Delhi estimate is made from detailed analysis of police reports from various parts of the country and, therefore, may be considered as being based on official data, though from a smaller sample in the country. Since these latter estimates for pedestrian fatalities are similar, it is quite certain that these estimates are more reliable than those in MoRTH reports. The error in the official reports probably arises from wrong coding of the victims’ status, and the procedure needs to be reviewed carefully and revised. A detailed analysis of police records shows that the cases are registered, however, error occurs at the time of coding. Non recording may also be there, however, bigger problem at the moment is wrong coding. The Indian official estimates of pedestrian fatalities are extremely low compared to independent researchers’ estimates (~15% vs ~35%); therefore, official estimates for all other modes will also be wrong. MoRTH data is based on police coding. The data is collected from the police station, compiled at State level and then at the National level. We have explained the coding problem of data earlier. IITD data source is also police data, however, coding is done in the lab after reading the description of the crash. The difference in the two data sets point to the erroneous coding. Hsia et al. (2013) and Dandona et al. (2017) is based on a different methodology (oral autopsy of one million deaths in the country). MoRTH is erroneous for coding the victims, when a bigger vehicle is involved. MTW and bus collision in which MTW is the victim may get recorded as bus victim if the bus has been recorded as vehicle at fault. For the time being, we will have to use research estimates for modal share of road traffic fatalities and not the official number.

The modal share estimates for India are significantly different from those in most high-income countries (Table 1). What is most important to note here is that the proportion of car occupant deaths for countries included in Table 1 (except Japan) is greater than 40% and motorized two-wheelers (MTW) less than 23%. Estimates in Fig. 8 suggest that car and motorized two-wheeler occupant fatality proportions are <10% and >30%, respectively. These proportions in India are unlikely to change dramatically over the next decade. Because of these differences, road safety priorities may have to be very different in India, and some new safety interventions would have to be developed to move toward Vision Zero.

Table 1 Modal share of road traffic fatalities in selected high-income countries. (IRTAD Road Safety Annual Report 2019, https://www.itf-oecd.org/road-safety-annual-report-2019)

RTI in Urban Areas

According to the MoRTH report, 51,379 (34%) fatalities took place in urban areas and 100,038 (66%) in rural areas (Transport Research Wing 2019). These data suggest that the urban RTI fatality share is about the same as the estimated urban population share (34%) in 2018. (Rural population (% of total population) – India. The World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?locations=IN) The latest report includes details for 50 million-plus (population) cities recording a total of 17,709 fatalities (34% of all urban RTI deaths). Figure 9 shows deaths reported in these cities for 2015 and 2018. Figure 10 shows the RTI death rates per 100,000 population in million-plus cities for 2015 and 2018. Population numbers for these cities are not available for 2015 and 2018 from the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India. Population for each city in 2015 and 2018 was estimated using 2011 figures and official growth rates for the states they are located in (Technical Group on Population Projections 2006).

Fig. 9

Annual RTI deaths in million-plus (population) cities in 2015 and 2018. (Source: Transport Research Wing 2019)

Fig. 10

RTI deaths per 100,000 persons in million-plus (population) cities in 2015 and 2018. (Source: Transport Research Wing 2019)

There were 10 cities with 50% lower rates than the average for all cities in 2018 with rates ranging from 2 to 7 fatalities per 100,000 population: Ahmedabad, Amritsar, Hyderabad, Kannur, Kochi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Pune, Srinagar, and Surat. It is not possible to explain the differences in city fatality rates per hundred thousand persons as we do not have details of the implementation of safety policies in any of these cities. It is interesting to note that none of the high-rate cities include cities with populations greater than three million, whereas the low-rate cities include five with population greater than five million. The low-rate cities have rates that are similar to some of those in high-income countries. It would be important to investigate why rates are so different across cities in the same country. The findings might give us new clues on planning for Vision Zero in India. A study that examined the influence of road type and junction density on road traffic fatality rates in cities in the USA suggests that a city with a higher proportion of wider roads and large city blocks will tend to have higher traffic fatality rates and therefore in turn require much more efforts in police enforcement and other road safety measures (Mohan et al. 2017a). We need to understand the influence of city form on road traffic crashes to make Vision Zero a reality. Since a vast majority of the victims in the cities are vulnerable road users, one possible cause of low death rates in low-rate cities (populations greater than five million) could be reduction of vehicle speeds due to congestion.

RTI Details for Selected Cities

Table 2 shows the proportion of road traffic fatalities by road user type in nine Indian cities. These cities vary in population from 280,000 to 20 million. The data for Delhi were obtained from the Delhi Police Department and for all other cities by analyzing First Information Reports (FIR) maintained by the police departments in the respective cities for a period of three years (Mohan, Tiwari, and Mukherjee 2013).

Table 2 Proportion of road traffic fatalities by road user type in nine Indian cities. (Source: see text)

The proportion of vulnerable road user (pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorized two-wheelers) deaths in the nine cities range between 84% and 93%, car occupant fatalities between 2% and 7%, and occupants of three-wheeled scooter taxis (TSTs) less than 5% per cent, except in Vishakhapatnam where the proportion for the latter is 8%. The total of vulnerable road user deaths remains relatively stable across cities of different sizes, and the proportion of pedestrian deaths appears to be higher in cities with larger populations. VRUs are pedestrians, bicyclists and MTW victims. When these columns are added in Table 2, the range is 65–75%. Proportion of pedestrians in Delhi and Mumbai the large cities is higher than other cities.

RTI Victims and Impacting Vehicles

Figure 11 shows the data for distribution of road traffic fatalities by road user category versus the respective impacting vehicles/objects for two of the nine cities, Vishakhapatnam and Bhopal. These two cities are representative of the patterns in all the cities studied and have been selected as the fatality rates per 100,000 persons are different with Vishakhapatnam at 24 and Bhopal at 14 in 2011. In both cities, the largest proportion of fatalities for all road user categories (especially vulnerable road users) is associated with impacts with buses and trucks and then cars. This is true for the other cities also. The most interesting feature emerging from this analysis is the involvement of MTW as impacting vehicles for pedestrian, bicyclist, and MTW fatalities in the cities. The proportion of pedestrian fatalities associated with MTW impacts ranges from 8% to 25% of the total. The highest proportion was observed in Bhopal. The involvement of MTWs as impacting vehicles in vulnerable road user (VRU) fatalities may be due to the fact that pedestrians and bicyclists do not have adequate facilities on the arterial roads of these cities and that they have to share the road space (the curbside lane) with MTW riders.

Fig. 11

Fatal RTI road user category and impacting vehicles/objects in Vishakhapatnam and Bhopal (numbers in bars represent number of cases; TST: three-wheeled scooter taxis)

The issue of serious injuries and fatalities among pedestrians hit by motorcycles has not received much attention internationally. Since the use of motorized two-wheeler for personal transport and deliveries is increasing in a large number of countries, it is necessary to give greater attention to safer motorcycle design and management of their movement on city roads .

RTI on Intercity Highways

Figure 12 shows the proportion of RTI fatalities on different categories of roads and the proportion of road length for each category (Transport Research Wing 2019). Fatality rate per km of road is the highest on national highways with 47.3 deaths per 100 km annually (Fig. 13). The relatively high death rate on NH could be because they carry a significant proportion of passenger and freight traffic. However, since details of vehicle km travelled on various categories of highways are not available, it is not possible to make a comparison based on exposure rates.

Fig. 12

The proportion of RTI fatalities on different categories of roads and the proportion of road length for each category. (Source: Transport Research Wing 2019)

Fig. 13

Fatalities per 100 km on different categories of roads in India in 2018. (Source: Transport Research Wing 2019)

Recent research studies have reported fatal crash rates (fatalities per km) for three NH (NH-1, NH-8, and NH 2) as 3.08 crashes/km/year on six-lane NH-1, followed by 2.54 crashes/km/year on four-lane NH-24 bypass, and 0.72 crashes/km/year on two-lane NH-8 (Naqvi and Tiwari 2015).

RTI Patterns on Highways

A detailed study of 35 selected locations on highways showed that pedestrians and bicyclists constituted 43% of the fatalities (Tiwari, Mohan, and Gupta 2000) (Table 3). A more recent study (Tiwari 2015) investigated police reports of fatal crashes on selected locations on two-lane, four-lane, and six-lane highways and showed that the proportions of motor vehicle occupants and vulnerable road users were 32, 19 and 52% and 68% respectively, whereas the proportions for urban areas were 5%–10% vehicle occupants and the rest vulnerable road users. Though the motor vehicle occupant fatalities are higher on highways than in urban areas, as would be expected, the differences are not as high as in Western countries. A majority (68%) of those getting killed on highways in India comprise vulnerable road users, and this fact should be the guiding factor in future design considerations. Data from three highway segments from 2009 to 2013 show a similar pattern. Pedestrian and MTW proportions are very high except on the six-lane highway where the proportion of truck victims is higher.

Table 4 shows the involvement of different impacting vehicles in fatal crashes on highways. This shows that as far as vehicle involvement is concerned, the patterns are similar in urban and rural areas. Trucks and buses are involved in about 70% of fatal crashes in both rural and urban areas. This is again very different from Western countries where there are significant differences in rural and urban crash patterns.

It is possible that these high rates of vulnerable road deaths on rural highways are due to the fact that these roads pass through high-density population areas where local residents who do not possess motorized means of transport have to walk along these roads, cross them, or wait on the shoulders to access public transport. Some major design standards for rural highways and expressways have to be re-examined in the light of these findings.

Road Safety Policies and Enabling Legislation in India

When cars appeared on the street in the West and elsewhere, traffic engineering was established as a formal scientific and technical discipline. In the mid-nineteenth century, British colonial rulers in India established formal engineering training institutes to assist in the construction of railways, roads, and canals. The focus of this training was to impart knowledge about concrete, surveying, and construction techniques. The textbooks and the teaching resources came from the UK and the English language (Palit 1998). The Indian Roads Congress was established in 1934 to guide Indian engineers how to plan and build roads. The concrete roads were replaced with asphalt roads as was done in Europe, and the control of roads was given to provincial authorities – state public works departments – and local municipalities in some cases. The national trunk roads remained under the central control, and the Central Road Fund was created in 1930 to develop and maintain these roads. (Gijs Mom, India and the Tools of Empire: the emergence of the layeredness of modern mobility) Almost one hundred years later, the Indian Roads Congress continues to be an important professional body today. A large number of road planning and design guidelines have been issued to guide the field engineers involved in rural roads, state highways, and national highways.

The first Motor Vehicles Act in 1939 was introduced with the motivation to control vehicles plying on the road and protect the interests of the state-run railways. The number of cars, buses, and trucks grew from 1918 to 1930; however, there was a sharp decline in the number of cars from 1930 to 1940, and the number of buses and trucks remained constant. Buses were mostly for intercity movement. Buses provided a good option for third-class railway passengers, and cars competed with the first-class railway passengers. In cities three-wheeled “rickshaw” was first introduced for goods movement by Chinese traders and quickly spread in most major cites as passenger vehicles. A multilayered complex mobility evolved with the introduction of new technologies. Though there was some substitution of travel modes, it was not in a simple linear pattern which is easily predictable. The Census of India in 1936–1937 shows the dominance of pedestrian traffic followed by rickshaw motor cars and buses, not very different from the mix of traffic present on Indian roads a century later, with the exception of motorized two-wheeler.

While the road planning and construction is guided by various codes and guidelines issued by the Indian Roads Congress, the vehicle movement and vehicle specifications and penalties for violation of MVA rules are guided by the Motor Vehicles Act and Central Motor Vehicles Rules (CMVR). Until the mid-1980s, there was little discussion of traffic safety in these documents. The 1939 Act was primarily concerned about fixing liability based on driver error as “rash and negligent” behavior, enhancing penalties, and creating additional offenses. The existing law and policy debate on road safety in India have continued to focus on these three aspects. The 1987 urban transport plans expressed concern over vehicular pollution and traffic safety. There is also a discussion of planning urban areas in such a way that the need for travel is reduced – self-contained districts. “Efforts have been made to restrict the movement of slow moving vehicles like cycle rickshaws, hand carts and animal-drawn carts on congested roads within the CBD area in many cities. Priority for buses and other passenger vehicles, ban on heavy goods carriers and exclusive pedestrian streets are some of the regulatory measures suggested for the improvement of the traffic conditions in several cities” (Srinivasan, N.S. et al.Urban roads- India Report. in PIRAC World Road Congress, 1987).

Two important developments occurred in the late 1980s. One, the National Highways Authority of India was set up by an act of the Parliament, NHAI Act, 1988: “An Act to provide for the constitution of an Authority for the development, maintenance and management of national highways and for matter connected therewith or incidental thereto.” (https://nhai.gov.in/about-nhai.htm) The second important development was the revision of the Motor Vehicles Act of 1939. The Motor Vehicles Act, 1988, came into force from 1 July 1989. It replaced Motor Vehicles Act, 1939, which earlier replaced the first such enactment Motor Vehicles Act, 1914. For exercising the legislative provisions of the Act, the Government of India made the Central Motor Vehicles Rules, 1989.

In 2005, the Ministry of Roads and Highways (MoRTH) that constituted an expert committee on Road Safety and Traffic Management was given two responsibilities (Committee 2007):

• 1. Study what new laws or amendments to existing laws would be required.

• 2. Recommend a structure for the proposed Directorate of Road Safety and Traffic Management, and advise on its role and functions.

Some of the key observations of the committee report were:

• 1. Existing institutions are not equipped to deal with increasing traffic on the roads.

• 2. Key ministries and the public sector play a peripheral role in improving road safety.

• 3. Road safety is not a priority in the development agenda of the state and central governments.

• 4. The existing Road Safety Council does not have adequate statutory backing, budgetary resources, or the mandate to be effective.

• 5. India must adopt the advancements made globally in road safety techniques and technology.

  The Committee also appended a draft of a law to its report, calling it the National Road Safety and Traffic Management Act. The Bill based on this draft was not accepted by the parliament.

In 2014, the Supreme Court of India established a committee of road safety experts headed by a retired justice of the Supreme Court of India. The committee’s mandate is to (1) measure and monitor on behalf of the Supreme Court the implementation of various laws relating to road safety in the states and central ministries and (2) to identify the need for further legislation or changes in the existing laws.

The committee has been directing state governments to report progress made in implementing road safety laws since 2014. The 1988 Act was amended by The Motor Vehicles (Amendment) Act, 2019. The Act provides in detail the legislative provisions regarding licensing of drivers/conductors, registration of motor vehicles, control of motor vehicles through permits, special provisions relating to state transport undertakings, traffic regulation, insurance, liability, offenses and penalties, etc. The amended MVA has several provisions not included earlier: increased compensation for road accident victims, Motor Vehicle Accident fund to provide compulsory insurance cover to all road users, defining a good Samaritan, recall of defective motor vehicles, development of the National Transport Policy and National Road Safety Board, recognizing taxi aggregators, and increased penalties for several offenses.

Out of the many amendments proposed in the Act, increased penalties have been implemented in many states from 1 September 2019, and at the same time many states have decided to “dilute” the suggested increase in penalties. Most of the suggested amendments seem to be based on “common sense” as opposed to scientific evidence and therefore are not likely to have a serious impact on reducing road traffic crashes.

Many road safety concerns have not been addressed by the amended MVA. For example, the presence of villages and small towns along the highways has resulted in a mixed traffic patterns on highways in India. The density of small towns and villages along the highway and the presence of tractors, MTW, and three-wheelers on the highway along with cars, buses, trucks, and truck trailers present a very different traffic mix as compared to North America and Western Europe where most of the highway standards have been developed.

Traffic crash patterns in India are also substantially different as compared to North America and Western Europe. Pedestrian and motorcyclist involvement in fatal crashes on highways is greater than that of other road users. These highway crash patterns are similar to those observed in urban areas. In the past two decades, major investments have gone into expanding the national highway system in India. Yet the number of fatalities has continued to grow. This requires review of the current highway standards prevalent in India. Perhaps field experiments are required to develop appropriate road designs which meet the requirement of mixed traffic as is the practice in many European and North American countries.

Despite the efforts in the last few decades, the number of road traffic fatalities has continued to increase in India. The MoRTH report of 2018 has listed 1,51,430 fatalities. On the other hand, a study based on the sample registration system (verbal autopsies of a national sample) of the Government of India estimated that there were 275,000 road traffic fatalities in India in 2017 (Menon et al. 2019), and another recent modelling estimates 218,876 fatalities in the same year (Dandona et al. 2020). These estimates report higher share of pedestrian and motorized two-wheelers as RTC victims as compared to the MoRTH report. The states with better road infrastructure have higher rates of fatalities (Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, etc.). The MVA amendments do not address the reliability of crash estimates, which forms the basis of designing preventive strategies.

We have not yet created a system of producing scientific evidence for designing preventive strategies in India. A 2007 report from New South Wales in Australia evaluated the effectiveness of stricter penalties and found, “It is suggested that substantial increases in fines and licence disqualifications would have limited potential in deterring recidivist offenders. The present analysis, failed to find any evidence for a significant relationship between fine amount and the likelihood that an offender will return to court for a new driving offense. Nor was there any evidence from our analyses to suggest that longer license disqualification periods reduced the likelihood of an offender reappearing before the courts” (Briscoe 2004), and a meta-analysis suggests that “Increasing traffic fines was found to be associated with small changes in the rate of violations” (Elvik 2016). This suggests that increased fines as suggested in the amended MVA alone will not have the intended effect of reducing traffic crashes. The current traffic safety science suggests that if road users do not take their share of the responsibility, for example, due to a lack of knowledge or competence, or if personal injuries occur or for other reasons that lead to risk, the system designers (road designers) must take further measures to prevent people from being killed or seriously injured. This is consistent with the Vision Zero theory, which suggests that humans have limitations in perception, diligence, and other driving-related performance that are predictable and inevitable. These natural limitations are the primary reason for increased responsibility by system designers.

Therefore, reduction in the growing health burden due to traffic crashes requires establishing a system or institutional structure which enables generation of new knowledge – new road standards to ensure safe highways and urban roads in India, a highway design that can ensure safety of pedestrians, and a roundabout design that can control speeding two-wheelers. The newly amended Motor Vehicles Act provides for a National Road Safety Board to be created by the central government through a notification. The Board will advise the central and state governments on all aspects of road safety and traffic management including (i) standards of motor vehicles, (ii) registration and licensing of vehicles, (iii) standards for road safety, and (iv) promotion of new vehicle technology. The proposed board does not have any statutory powers; this may become another version of the current National Road Safety Council having representation from various ministries and other stakeholders with no statutory powers. The NRSC is expected to meet at least once a year. The presence of NRSC has not had any impact in reducing traffic crashes in the past. In the next section, we present case studies based on current safety knowledge.

Can Current Safety Knowledge Lead to Vision Zero in India?

In this section we present a scenario analysis for two small cities in India to estimate the effectiveness of implementing specific vehicle- and infrastructure-related strategies. In case of the smaller cities, this gives a unique opportunity since the number of fatalities is less compared to the larger cities in India. In addition to that, setting up countermeasures is easier if integrated early into the system.

The Approach to Reduction in Road Traffic Fatalities Estimation

In this exercise we attempt to evaluate the effect of the following road safety measures over time in the next 10 years. Three interventions are considered for assessing the impact on traffic safety. These are:

• 1. Vehicle safety devices with safety technology.

• 2. Enforcement of existing traffic laws with respect to the following specific aspects:

  • (a) Speed control

  • (b) Red light running

  • (c) Seat belt use

  • (d) Helmet use

  • (e) Drinking and driving

• 3. Road infrastructure improvement for speed control.

Intervention 1: Vehicle Safety Regulations in India

Vehicle safety devices for cars (crashworthiness standards) and motorized two-wheelers (antilock-braking systems (ABS), combined braking systems (CBS), and daytime running lights (DRL)) have shown to reduce fatal crashes. The recent amendments to the Motor Vehicles Act have stipulated these devices along with crashworthiness to be mandatory for cars and MTW.

The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Government of India, prescribed that front seats of all motor vehicles must be equipped with lap and shoulder belts which took effect on 1 April 1994. Three-wheelers with engine capacity less than 500 cc were exempted. All vehicles sold in India after this date have been equipped with belts in front seats. Installation of seat belts on all rear seats in cars was mandated in September 2002. The government made crashworthiness norms mandatory for all new models of cars from October 2017 and for existing models from October 2019. The new minimum safety norms, including frontal and side crash tests, apply to all cars, and the cars are tested for offset frontal crash norms at 56 km/h and 50 km/h for the side crash test. In general, these crash test norms cannot be complied without the cars being equipped with airbags for front seat occupants.

The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways mandated that all new MTWs sold after 1 April 2017 be equipped with automatic headlamp on (AHO) feature (similar to the daytime running lamps (DRLs)). Antilock braking systems (ABS) were made mandatory for all new MTWs with engine capacity above 125 cc and combined braking system (CBS) mandatory for those below 125 cc which took effect on 1 April 2018.

The number of vehicles produced after 2019 and the proportion of the same in the fleet in subsequent years will determine the effectiveness in terms of the lives saved due to these devices. Since this intervention does not require any intervention from the city administration, it has been included as the first intervention .

Intervention 2: Regulations Regarding Use of Seat Belts and Helmets

The Motors Vehicles Act 1988 (India) made use of helmets mandatory for all MTW riders in the whole country in 1988. Use of seat belts by front seat occupants was made mandatory nationally five years later on 18 March 1999. But the use of seat belts by rear seat occupants was mandated by Motor Vehicles Amendment Act 2019. However, since enforcement of traffic regulations is a state subject in the federal structure of the Indian constitution, traffic regulations have to be notified and enforced by each state. The Delhi Traffic Police made use of seat belts by front seat passengers compulsory which took effect on 15 February 2002 and initiated enforcement of the same.

Even though the Motor Vehicles Act is a central government act, the enforcement of the law by the police authorities is in the purview of state and city law enforcement authorities. This has resulted in a paucity of the law being enforced. The use of seat belts and helmets is responsible for a sizeable decrease in fatalities in road traffic crashes. It is very important to note that since airbags are being installed in all cars produced post-2019, not using a seat belt in a car fitted with airbags can at times lead to an increase in injury to the occupants of the car. Enforcement being a local governance matter and something that can be easily achieved has been taken as the second intervention. Enforcement of seat belts and helmets is relatively easy and does not require any additional training or equipment for the traffic police; drinking and driving enforcement from global experience is not as easy. So we have taken the enforcement of alcohol and narcotic use by the driver as the last intervention.

Intervention 3: Reduction of vehicle speeds and preventing interaction between the vulnerable road users (VRUs) and motorized vehicle have shown great improvements in reduction of fatal road crashes. All these require changes in road infrastructure that have been scientifically designed. The main examples of these changes are conversion of junctions to roundabouts and installing speed controlling devices like speed breakers/rumble strips and speed cameras and pedestrian/bicycle centric infrastructure. These require both capital cost and time along with coordination between multiple local government agencies; because of these limitations, this has been taken as the third intervention. An improvement of 7% per year in installation of these infrastructural changes has been considered to achieve the SDG targets. This requires investment by the city governments; therefore, a low limit of 7% has been assumed.

Methodology of Estimation of Effectiveness of Intervention

The first step was to do a classification of the possible interventions followed by an exhaustive search of the literature to ascertain the effectiveness of the various interventions. Various systematic reviews and meta-analyses published were taken, and for every intervention, the average value of their respective effectiveness was taken for the analysis. Tables 3, 4, and 5 show the assumed effectiveness values and the corresponding sources.

Table 3 Effectiveness of vehicle safety technologies

Table 4 Effectiveness of enforcement

Table 5 Effectiveness of road infrastructure changes

The second step was to estimate the population of Patiala City for the years 2019, 2025, and 2030. Simultaneously the vehicle population data was obtained from the Regional Transport Office (RTO) of Patiala City for the years 2012–2017. This was used to calculate the number of vehicles of various modes for the years 2019, 2025, and 2030.

Calculation of Scenarios to Achieve SDG 3.6

Based on the estimates illustrated in Tables 3–5, five scenarios were developed to localize the goals set by SDG 3.6 by the year 2030. The first scenario considers a case when no there are now new safety interventions is taken – business as usual (BAU). Subsequent scenarios take into account the listed interventions additively and showcase the percentage reduction in fatal crashes resulting from each interventions. The five scenarios are:

• 1. Business as usual (BAU).

• 2. Introduction of vehicle safety devices.

• 3. Introduction of vehicle safety devices + seat belt and helmet enforcement.

• 4. Introduction of vehicle safety devices + seat belt and helmet enforcement + road infrastructure changes.

• 5. Introduction of vehicle safety devices + seat belt and helmet enforcement + road infrastructure changes + driving under influence (DUI) enforcement.

Figures 14 and 15 show the reduction in fatalities for each scenario (for Patiala and Bulandshahr respectively). The results are based on the detailed methodology presented by Mohan et al. (Mohan et al. 2021). As can be inferred from Figs. 14 and 15, the maximum impact in fatality reduction comes from the improvement in road infrastructure. Though this requires both time and monetary investment by the city administration, achieving SDG 3.6 is not possible without this intervention. The quickest and the easiest method to reduce fatal crashes is the enforcement of seat belts and helmets for cars and motorized two-wheelers respectively.

Fig. 14

Reduction in road fatalities by 2030 in Patiala

Fig. 15

Reduction in road fatalities by 2030 in Bulandshahr

Vehicle Crashworthiness Standards (ECE and NCAP) for Promoting Road Safety Worldwide

In this section, we examine the role of automobile safety standards in decreasing RTI death rates around the world. An important stream in global intervention is in the promotion of universal motor vehicle safety standards. There are two approaches to improving car design: (1) legislation that prescribes requirements with which vehicle manufacturers need to comply and (2) information programs by organizations like NCAP (Global NCAP. http://www.globalncap.org/. Accessed 7 July 2019.) (New Car Assessment Program) around the world (ASEAN NCAP, Euro NCAP, Global NCAP, Latin NCAP, US NCAP, etc.) and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety that provide safety ratings for cars and create a market for safer vehicles.

The WHO Status Report (WHO 2018) recommends that all countries should adopt the UNECE WP.29 motor vehicle safety standards and provides a list of eight to be prioritized for implementation by countries (Table 6). (WP.29 – Introduction. https://www.unece.org/trans/main/wp29/introduction.html. Accessed 7 July 2019) They also note that “New Car Assessment Programmes (NCAPs) have proved highly effective in raising the levels of vehicle safety significantly above the minimum regulatory requirements.”

Table 6 Priority UN vehicle safety standards. (Source: WHO 2018)

The regulatory aspects have the possibility of being applied across the board to vehicles (e.g., for pedestrian safety, including bus-pedestrian). Even though the NCAP safety market applies primarily to occupants, pedestrian test results are a component of the Euro NCAP star rating system, but this is not the case in the USA.

Safer cars have had a major role in reducing RTI fatality rates in HIC over the past 40 years. Estimates for the USA suggest that the fatality risk in the average car or light transport vehicles in 2012 was 56% lower than in the average vehicle on the road in 1960(Kahane 2015). In the USA, there were 33,561 fatalities on roadways in 2012, which means an estimated 45% was prevented due to automobile safety standards. If in a country vehicle occupant deaths contribute only 20% instead of 64% of the total count, then it is possible that reduction in deaths due to automobile safety standards would be less than 15%.

Almost all our understanding of road safety issues derives from the experience of about a hundred years of motorization in the HIC of today. This experience is based on traffic systems where the safety of car occupants remained the central concern. In these countries cars have been the dominant part of traffic systems unlike in many of the LMICs where motorized two-wheeler and para-transit vehicles like three-wheeled taxis (TWT in this paper), tuk-tuks, and jeepneys constitute a significant proportion of traffic on roads. Since we do not have detailed epidemiological studies on the effect of these latter vehicles on traffic safety in LMIC, we do not have a good understanding of the risks faced by occupants of these vehicles where they are a dominant mode of transport.

Figure 16 shows the proportion of car and vulnerable road user (VRU – occupants of 2−/3-wheelers, cyclists, and pedestrians) fatalities in selected countries (for India only – Mohan et al. 2015; WHO 2015). In Cambodia, Colombia, India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, car occupants comprise less than 20% of road traffic fatalities. Even in HICs like Japan, the Netherlands, Hungary, Poland, and Greece, VRUs constitute more than 50% of the fatalities. Figure 17 shows the total population of countries included in Fig. 16 with car occupant fatalities greater than 40% and VRU fatalities greater than 60%. We would probably get similar population ratios if we included all the countries in the world; however, it is not possible to make an accurate assessment as reliable figures for modal share of fatalities are not available for all countries.

Fig. 16

Proportion of car and vulnerable road user (VRU: occupants of 2–3-wheelers, cyclists, and pedestrians) fatalities in selected countries. (Source: WHO 2015). Data for India from Mohan et al. (2015))

Fig. 17

Population of countries included in Fig. 16 according to proportion of car occupant and VRU fatalities

The above analysis indicates that while it is important to establish the latest level of vehicle safety performance whether by government standards or NCAP-type testing worldwide, it should be noted that this alone will not reduce overall death rates in LMIC as the HIC experience indicates. However, it is important to understand that although improved automobile safety performance may not result in as dramatic a reduction in fatality rates in LMIC as in HIC, hundreds of thousands of people are maimed and killed in cars all over world, and they must have access to the best safety systems available as soon as possible. Another reason why implementation of the latest safety performance in LMIC would be beneficial for car occupants is that many of these countries have a much younger fleet than HIC (Fig. 18). While car sales have plateaued in HIC, sales are still increasing in most LMICs. Therefore, early implementation of the latest safety performance would result in a faster fleet replacement with the best safety features in LMIC than in HIC.

Fig. 18

Age of cars on the road in India, Sweden, and Japan in 2015

Relationship Between MTW Share in Vehicle Fleet, Pedestrian Exposure, and Fatalities

A thought experiment can be conducted to examine what would happen if the countries with very low fatality rates today had a much higher proportion of MTW in the fleet and a much higher exposure of pedestrians. Here we take the example of India, Japan, and Sweden. India, Japan, and Sweden had fatality rates of ~12, 4.7, and 2.8 per 100,000 persons, respectively, in 2013. If we keep the total number of vehicles constant in Sweden and Japan but change the fleet composition to 75% MTW and 25% cars, double the exposure of pedestrians, and then calculate overall fatality rates using risk of fatalities per unit vehicle and pedestrian per population constant for both countries, then we get the results as shown in Fig. 19. The estimated results show that the total number of deaths increases significantly in Japan and Sweden and the estimated fatality rates increase to 7 and 8.2, respectively. These estimates indicate that significant gains in traffic safety in HIC are partly due to the reduced exposure of VRU and not only due to the effect of safety policies. Since a large number of LMICs are not likely to reduce VRU exposure significantly in the next decade, exclusive focus on NCAP standards will not produce dramatic results in LMIC as they did in the HIC in the past. This thought experiment also suggests that it may not be possible for LMIC to reduce fatality rates below about 7 per 100,000 population along with high exposure of VRUs unless there are innovative developments in road design and vehicle safety standards including all indigenous intermediate transport vehicles with special emphasis on VRU protection.

Fig. 19

Existing fatality rates in India, Japan, and Sweden and estimated rates in Japan and Sweden if they had 75% MTW in their fleet and 2 times the exposure of pedestrians. *Assumption: Occupant risk per vehicle and pedestrian risk per population remain constant

Safety Standards for Vehicles Other than Cars (Not Covered by NCAP at Present)

Safety of Para-Transit Vehicles (Three-Wheeled Scooter Taxis)

Studies comparing the safety of large cars with small cars have consistently found that larger cars provide better protection than small cars (Broughton 2008; Buzeman et al. 1998; Wood 1997). All these studies have been done in HIC where cars of all sizes are capable of the same driving speeds. Personal fatality risk for various vehicles in four Indian cities has been calculated by dividing vehicle-specific occupant fatality rates by estimates of the average daily occupancy of each vehicle. The occupancy rates for MTW, car, and TWT were estimated to be 4, 7, and 60 persons, respectively, per day (Chanchani and Rajkotia 2012; Mohan and Roy 2003; Wilbur Smith Associates 2008). The results of these calculations are shown in Fig. 20 (Mohan et al. 2016). Given the present trip lengths for each vehicle type, MTW riders are 3–6 times more at risk than car occupants. The MTW fatality rates per trip in Agra and Vishakhapatnam are much higher than those in the other three cities. The reasons for this are not known at present. At an individual level, risk per trip seems to be the lowest for TWT occupants in all the cities under the assumed occupancy rates and number of trips per day. This is a very surprising finding because average speed of TWT is much lower. TWTs weigh less than a third of cars, have no surrounding steel shell, and have to subscribe to only minimal safety standards.

Fig. 20

Fig. 8. Personal fatality risk per 10 million trips for occupants of motorized two-wheelers, TWT, and cars in four Indian cities. (Source: Mohan et al. 2016)

Figure 21 shows all the fatalities associated with each vehicle type per 100,000 vehicle km per day. We assumed the following daily travel distance values for the different vehicle types: bus 150 km, car 50 km, TWT 150 km, and MTW 25 km. This is based on trip distances/lengths that each vehicle covers daily. The data include fatalities of occupants and road users other than vehicle occupants. For example, if a motorcycle hits a pedestrian and the pedestrian dies, the pedestrian death is also associated with the motorcycle. This index gives a rough idea of the total number of fatalities one might associate for each vehicle type given the present traffic conditions and mode shares. Essentially, the figures indicate that the low rate for TWT relative to cars is due to the higher number of passengers carried by TWT per day. These indices appear to suggest that, on a travel distance basis, TWT, MTW, and cars may pose roughly similar level of danger to society under the present conditions. Safer design is a pressing concern for TWT, which are threats to both their occupants and the VRU that they impact.

Fig. 21

All fatalities associated with each vehicle category per 100,000 vehicle km (estimated) in four Indian cities. (Source: Mohan et al. 2016)

No previous studies are available on safety records of motor vehicles that are not capable of high speeds operating in mixed traffic in urban areas. TWTs operating in Indian cities have engines smaller in size than 175 cc and generally cannot exceed velocities greater than 50 km/h. The experience of TWT in Indian cities suggests that small lightweight vehicles with limited speed capabilities operating in the urban environment can result in low occupant fatality rates. The lower operating speed of TWT also implies that they pose a much lower risk to pedestrians, bicyclists, and other road users. This issue needs to be studied in greater detail, and if found true, it may be suggested that different crashworthiness standards or NCAP tests need to be developed for low-mass vehicles incapable of operating at speeds greater than 50 km/h. Such vehicles may be optimal for urban use and could be prohibited for roads with speed limits greater than 50 km/h.

It may not be possible for LMIC to reduce fatality rates below about 7 per 100,000 population along with high exposure of VRUs unless there are innovative developments in road design and vehicle safety standards including all indigenous intermediate transport vehicles with special emphasis on VRU protection.

Designs and Specifications

At the operational level, it is the state (public authority) that has the primary obligation for ensuring the people’s right to road safety since the state is granted sovereign powers through the mutual transference of the powers of the citizens to the state by way of a social contract. At the implementation level, both roads and vehicle design, investments in research, and new knowledge generation are required.

Roads have become relatively safer in many high-income countries mostly due to improved geometric standards. Appropriate legislation regarding seat belt use, speed limits, and alcohol control has also contributed to improved safety. Often road standards (geometric design standards) in India have been based on either UK or USA design manuals. There are two important concerns in using or developing highway design standards mainly based on those in use in the USA or UK. The traffic mix for which these standards have been developed is very different from the traffic existing in India. The second concern is whether the design standards in HICs are based on traffic safety science (Hauer 1988).

Traffic crash patterns in India are substantially different compared to North America and Western Europe. Pedestrian and motorcyclist involvement in fatal crashes on rural highways is greater than that of other road users. These highway crash patterns are similar to those observed in urban areas. In North America, 10% of the fatal crashes on highways involve pedestrians. The presence of motorcycles is negligible, and long stretches of roads pass through wilderness. A large proportion of the highways is access controlled and designed for four-wheeled motorized traffic. Therefore, the road standards that have evolved to make access controlled highways safe for motorized vehicles may not ensure safety to other road users present on LMIC highways. However, in India standards similar to those in HICs have been adopted (IRC 2007; MoRTH 2010). In the past two decades, major investments have gone into expanding the national highway system in India. Yet the number of fatalities has continued to grow. The density of highways in a state and the number of fatalities seem to have a strong correlation. There is a strong reason to question the safety aspects of current standards in use.

Hauer (1988) has made important observations for North American roads: “No road in use is entirely crash-free, and therefore, in the interest of honest human communication no road can be called safe. The safety of a highway does not change abruptly when some highway dimension changes slightly. It follows that meeting or not meeting a dimension standard does not correspond to a road being ‘safe’ or ‘unsafe’. Also, highway design standards evolve with time. We used to build lanes 3.6m (12 feet) wide, now the standard calls for 3.75m wide lanes. This does not mean that the entire stock of old highways with 3.6m lanes is unsafe. It means only that the information, the judgements, and the economic considerations that go into the formulation of design standards change in time. In short, highway design standards are not the demarcation line between what is safe and unsafe. They are a reflection of what a committee of professionals of that time considers to be overall good practice.” These observations are valid for India too. Road standards set by Indian Roads Congress in India are based on committees where the membership includes practicing and retired professionals and academics. IRC does not have a rigorous process of synthesizing results of systematic reviews and scientific studies to propose or modify standards and monitor the impact of new standards.

Road infrastructure improvements (e.g., road upgrading and pavement) and roundabout design are found to be beneficial for safety. In the case of HICs, not only does better vehicle design but also improvements in road safety engineering reduce the severity of whiplash injuries when accidents occur, and this could be done by enhanced signal visibility or through complex intersection geometric upgrades (Navin et al. 2000; Perez 2006). In the case of countries like India, the safety benefit of roundabouts is clear; however, upgradation involving improved pavement surface, wider lanes, and wider shoulders may lead to higher speeds and increase opportunities for lane changing and conflicts. Pedestrians and slow vehicles on the curbside lane or shoulders will be exposed to motorized vehicles moving at much higher speeds. Safety benefit of road upgradation using the present standards is unclear for Indian highways.

Safe systems approach has three key principles (H. Y. Chen and Meuleners 2011; Transport Research Centre 2008):

• Principle 1 – Recognition of human frailty

• Principle 2 – Acceptance of human error

• Principle 3 – Creation of a forgiving environment and appropriate crash energy management

Current highway standards for geometric design of highways can be reviewed in the context of these three basic principles. Principles 1 and 2 must recognize that highways in India will have the presence of NMVs and pedestrians along with motorized traffic. Principle 3 becomes the operational principle for setting appropriate speed limits for ensuring a forgiving environment for all road users. Pedestrians will make mistakes in judging the possible risk in the system, whereas drivers can make mistakes in adopting an appropriate speed.

Design speed and design vehicle are the two most important elements which have been used to set highway standards in the past. Stopping distance of a modern car is very different from a tempo (three-wheeler) or two-axle trucks present on Indian highways. Therefore, selection of a design vehicle itself becomes important for setting the minimal standards for stopping distance, sight distance, and overtaking distances.

Design speed governs the design of horizontal curve, vertical curve, and the safe stopping distance. Conventional practice of keeping design speed higher than operational speed has been questioned by several researchers. Therefore, the design speed must be in line with the requirement of principle 3 “Creation of a forgiving environment and appropriate crash energy management.” This implies that for setting appropriate design speed, presence of NMVs, presence of activities along the highway, and density of built up area along the highway and frequency of towns and villages through which the highway passes must be taken into consideration. Design speed may vary from 30 km/h to 90 km/h with a road cross-section designed for appropriate crash energy management depending on the surrounding land use present along the highway.

Speed compliance by design : We started this paper quoting the success of legislation and enforcement; however, taking lessons from a number of studies in HICs, the most effective measure for speed compliance in India will be by design: active speed control measures. India has weak institutional capacity and weak enforcement of legislation; therefore, speed control by texture change, audible markers, rumble strips, change in geometric standards, median designs, lowering speeds at intersections by introducing roundabouts, raised stop lines, and speed humps on minor roads are expected to be more successful in speed compliance by all road users – good drivers, bad drivers, young drivers, knowledgeable drivers, drivers with poor driving education, etc. – ensuring compliance with the principle 2.

Many of the current standards for highway cross-section require revisions (Chen and Meuleners 2011; Mohan et al. 2017b) to comply with principle 3. Appropriate design of service roads, width of shoulders, and design of medians have to be reviewed to ensure safe designs for NMVs and different kinds of vehicles on the road.

Conclusions

The discussion above suggests that the previously assumed relationships between national incomes and RTI fatality rates (initial increase in deaths with increasing incomes and a subsequent decrease) may not be correct, and national income levels cannot be taken as an excuse for inefficient data collection systems or lack of safety on roads. Therefore, moving toward a target of zero deaths on the roads is a logical policy to be adopted by all countries.

However, we are likely to encounter many obstacles as we try to implement policies underlying Vision Zero:

• In most LMICs a large proportion (>60%) of RTI those getting killed in urban areas and on highways vulnerable road users. On the other hand, in the USA an estimated 45% fatalities were prevented due to automobile safety standards and NCAP-type testing. If in a country vehicle occupant deaths contribute only 20% instead of 64% of the total count, then it is possible that reduction in deaths due to automobile safety standards would be less than 15%. Since a large number of LMICs are not likely to reduce VRU exposure significantly in the next decade, exclusive focus on NCAP standards will not produce as dramatic results in LMIC as they did in the HIC in the past. There is a need for the development of suitable vehicle safety standards including all indigenous intermediate transport vehicles.

• Significant gains in traffic safety in HIC are partly due to the reduced exposure of VRU and not only due to the effect of safety policies. VRU trips have been reduced in many HICs for various reasons such as land use patterns requiring long commutes, easy access to cars, etc. It may not be possible for LMIC to reduce fatality rates below about 7 per 100,000 population along with high exposure of VRUs unless there are innovative developments in road design (including roundabouts, bicycle lanes, and expressways) with special emphasis on VRU protection.

• Fatality rates across cities and countries that have similar income levels can vary greatly. At present we do not know all the reasons behind these variations. It would be important to investigate why rates are so different across cities in the same country. These findings might give us new clues on planning for Vision Zero.

• The issue of serious injuries and fatalities among pedestrians hit by motorcycles has not received much attention internationally. Since the use of motorized two-wheeler for personal transport and deliveries is increasing in a large number of countries, it is necessary to give greater attention to safer motorcycle design and management of their movement on city roads.

• Very little effort has gone into the development of new knowledge, road designs, or vehicle safety specifications in most LMICs. Local research capabilities and resources for scientific research remain low.

Because of these reasons, road safety priorities may have to be very different in India and many other countries, and some new safety interventions would have to be developed to move toward Vision Zero. Translating Vision Zero requires efforts at several levels. At a very macro level, it involves the concept of “right to safety” enshrined in our constitution. A “right” to safety can exist only when there exists a relationship between individuals or groups using a product or services and the provider of those products or services. Constitutions of most countries ensure that their citizens have a right to life, and it is this right that gets translated into a right to live free from debilitating injury. Article 21 of the Constitution of India, 1950, provides that, “No person shall be deprived of his life or personal liberty except according to procedure established by law.” “Life” in Article 21 of the Constitution is not merely the physical act of breathing. It does not connote mere animal existence or continued drudgery through life. It has a much wider meaning which includes right to live with human dignity, right to livelihood, right to health, right to pollution-free air, etc. Individuals and communities need to understand that a right to safety on the road is as valid as a right to clean air or a right to live free of small pox, polio, or malaria.

The first step forward would be for policy-makers in all countries to acknowledge that road users have a right to expect that state decisions affecting their safety should be based on fact-based expectation of the safety consequences of such decisions. This would require every policy, law, or safety standard (concerning roads, vehicles, or traffic management) established by the state to be accompanied by a justification for the same by including systematic reviews of the scientific evidence used for the decision and the expected safety benefits in numerical estimates. The document would have to include information on what effects that measure would have on all road users and non-road users on their daily lives. These documents would obviously have to be placed in the public domain.

The second step would be for manufacturers of vehicles and other road-based technologies to explicitly state the quality and limits of the safety features embedded in their technologies. For example, a car manufacturer would have to state that the car has been tested for frontal impacts at say 60 km/h, that its speed reduces fatality rates by approximately x%, and that it may not be as safe at speeds above that limit.

The third step would be for international agencies dealing with road safety (state and non-state) to examine all sources of systematic reviews of road safety interventions and use them to justify the policies they pursue. They should also make it explicit that they will fund road safety activity by non-government organizations only if they promote interventions justified by scientific evidence. If they diverge from available evidence, then they must provide justification for doing so.

The proposed measures should help us move in a path that leads us to a situation that actually establishes Vision Zero as a right enjoyed by all road users and the accompanying obligations of the state and the private sector that accompany that right. The exact modalities of implementing the suggestions successfully will only come with experience.