Prospects of Russian Exports with Respect to the Demand for Chinese Agricultural Products

Abstract

To meet the set goals of increasing agri-food products export to 45 billion USD by 2030, Russia must consider the potential countries aiming to increase imports of these products. In this regard, we believe that China is currently one of the promising trading partners for Russia. China is marked with ongoing changes in the consumer preferences of the population in relation to food products, increasing demand for animal feed, acute environmental issues, and a lack of water and land resources. The trade wars of China and the traditional perception of Russian products as environmentally friendly also favor the expansion of its export. The study aims to identify changes in the demand and consumption of certain types of agri-food products in China (including the forecast indicators) to assess the potential of Russian export of this product meeting China’s demand. The measures for the development of Russian export are proposed. Based on the study of regulatory documents related to veterinary and sanitary requirements in China and the statistical and forecast data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, FAO-OECD, USDA, and the World Bank, the following results were obtained. Recently, the consumer preferences of the Chinese population began to undergo severe changes with a notable increase in the consumption of vegetable oils, meat, and dairy products, as well as high-value products and livestock feed grains. Forecast data indicates that dry milk, pork, beef, poultry, soybeans, feed grains, fish products, and vegetable oils will gain the most popular products in China shortly. Russian export of agri-food products can partially meet growing needs of China, provided that issues related to compliance with veterinary and sanitary requirements and logistics development are resolved.