Abstract
This study investigates potential changes to hydropower generation using diverse efficiency indexes (EIs) under climate change scenarios of different water year types including “dry” defined as the lower 20 percentile, “normal” as the middle 60 percentile, and “wet” as the upper 20 percentile from the low flow frequency analysis (LFFA) in retrofitting the hydropower description relative to the current conditions. For this study, the multiple linear regression model was fitted to the annual minimum 1 of 7-day average flows with recurrence intervals of 1, 3, 7, 15, or 30 years which were computed using the log-Pearson Type III mathematical technique (LPIII). The climatic impacts’ scenarios results of different water year types’ likelihoods of exceedance give the total annual hydropower as 0.631 MW, 0.550 MW, and 0.392 MW respectively for the lower 20 percentile while the equivalent reservoir inflows result shows an upwards trend in total amounts of runoff, though the patterns of possible changes are both temporally and spatially complex. It is thus important to understand stream and catchment behaviors during the period of limited flow in both natural and under various anthropogenic events. This will provide useful information for long-term river basin management under climate-change conditions which is also necessary for supporting aquatic lives.
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The financial support from the National Research Foundation (NRF), South Africa to the Risk and Vulnerable Research Centre2: UID Grants - 103232 is well appreciated.
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Amoo, O.T., Nakin, M.D.V., Abayomi, A., Umoh, U., Mutanga, M.B., Bilewu, S.O. (2021). Assessing Impacts of Low Flow on Kainji Hydro-Power Generation. In: Abraham, A., Hanne, T., Castillo, O., Gandhi, N., Nogueira Rios, T., Hong, TP. (eds) Hybrid Intelligent Systems. HIS 2020. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 1375. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73050-5_78
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