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Degree-Days and Agro-meteorological Indices in CMIP5 RCP8.5 Future Climate—Results for Central and Southeast Europe

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Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks (EnviroRISK 2020)

Part of the book series: Studies in Systems, Decision and Control ((SSDC,volume 361))

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Abstract

The present paper is continuation of our recent study and analyzes the potential changes of residential heating and cooling degree-days as well as three stakeholder-relevant indices of agro-meteorological change (growing season length, sum of the active and sum of the effective temperatures) for Central and Southeast Europe over near past (1975–2004), near (2021–2050) and far (2070–2099) future periods. All indicators were calculated from the output data of our simulations with the regional climate model RegCM driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the near past and by the global circulation model HadGEM2-ES under RCP8.5 CMIP5 radiative forcing scenario for the future periods. The validation of the model-based indices against their counterparts, computed from the observational dataset E-OBS, shows that the model reproduces their spatial variability and magnitude generally well. A linear bias correction of the considered indices is also demonstrated. Consistent with the general trend of the mean and extreme temperatures over the region, the study reveals a decrease of the heating degree days and considerable increase of the cooling degree days and the agro-meteorological indices practically over the whole domain in the future. The detected changes are fairly not symmetrical - the relative increase of the cooling degree days is significantly bigger than the decrease of the heating degree-days.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would express their gratitude of the institutions which provides free of charge software and data (ICTP, UKMO, ECA&D, MPI-M). This work has been carried out in the framework of the National Science Program “Environmental Protection and Reduction of Risks of Adverse Events and Natural Disasters”, approved by the Resolution of the Council of Ministers 577/17.08.2018 and supported by the Ministry of Education and Science (MES) of Bulgaria (Agreement D01-322/18.12.2019) and by the Bulgarian National Science Fund (grant DN-14/3/13.12.2017). This work has been accomplished with the financial support by the Grant BG05M2OP001-1.001-0003, financed by the Science and Education for Smart Growth Operational Program (2014–2020) and co-financed by the European Union through the European structural and Investment funds.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Tsarigradsko Shose blvd 66, 1784, Sofia, Bulgaria

    Hristo Chervenkov

  2. National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography—Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, acad. Georgi Bonchev str., Bl. 3, 1113, Sofia, Bulgaria

    Georgi Gadzhev, Vladimir Ivanov & Kostadin Ganev

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  1. Hristo Chervenkov
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  2. Georgi Gadzhev
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  3. Vladimir Ivanov
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Correspondence to Hristo Chervenkov .

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  1. Institute of Information and Communication Technologies, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (IICT-BAS), Sofia, Bulgaria

    Nina Dobrinkova

  2. National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (NIGGG-BAS), Sofia, Bulgaria

    Georgi Gadzhev

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Chervenkov, H., Gadzhev, G., Ivanov, V., Ganev, K. (2021). Degree-Days and Agro-meteorological Indices in CMIP5 RCP8.5 Future Climate—Results for Central and Southeast Europe. In: Dobrinkova, N., Gadzhev, G. (eds) Environmental Protection and Disaster Risks. EnviroRISK 2020. Studies in Systems, Decision and Control, vol 361. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70190-1_2

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