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Equal or Value Weighting? Implications for Asset-Pricing Tests

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Financial Risk Management and Modeling

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Abstract

We show that an equal-weighted portfolio has a higher total return than a value-weighted portfolio. As one may expect, this is partly because the equal-weighted portfolio has higher exposure to value and size factors, but we show that a considerable part (42%) comes from rebalancing to maintain constant weights. We then demonstrate, through four applications, that inferences from asset-pricing tests are substantially different depending on whether one uses equal- or value-weighted portfolios. These four applications are tests of the: Capital Asset Pricing Model, spanning properties of the stochastic discount factor, relation between characteristics and returns, and pricing of idiosyncratic volatility.

We gratefully acknowledge comments from Andrew Ang, Elena Asparouhova, Turan Bali, Hank Bessembinder, Michael Brennan, Oliver Boguth, Ian Cooper, Victor DeMiguel, Engelbert Dockner, Bernard Dumas, Nikolae Gârleanu, Will Goetzman, Amit Goyal, Antti Ilmanen, Ivalina Kalcheva, Philipp Kaufmann, Ralph Koijen, Lionel Martellini, Stefan Nagel, Stavros Panageas, Andrew Patton, David Rakowski, Tarun Ramadorai, Paulo Rodrigues, Bernd Scherer, Norman Seeger, Eric Shirbini, Mungo Wilson, Michael Wolf, Josef Zechner, and participants of seminars at the EDHEC-Risk Days Europe Conference, Endowment Asset Management Conference at the University of Vienna, European Summer Symposium in Financial Markets at Gerzensee, Edhec Business School (Singapore), Goethe University Frankfurt, Multinational Finance Society Conference (Krakow), Norges Bank Investment Management, S&P Indices, University of Innsbruck, and University of Southern Denmark. Yuliya Plyakha is from University of Luxembourg, Faculté de Droit, d’Economie et de Finance, 4, rue Albert Borschette, L-1246 Luxembourg; e-mail: plyakha@gmx.de. Raman Uppal is from CEPR and EDHEC Business School, 10 Fleet Place, Ludgate, London, United Kingdom EC4M 7RB; e-mail: raman.uppal@edhec.edu. Grigory Vilkov is from Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, Adickesallee 32–34, 60322, Frankfurt am Main, Germany; e-mail: vilkov@vilkov.net.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Equal-weighted mean returns are used in a large number of papers on empirical asset pricing (see, for example, the classical work of Fama and MacBeth (1973), Black et al. (1972), and Gibbons et al. (1989)), almost all event-studies, and the research that relates mean returns to firm characteristics (for reviews of this literature, see Campbell et al. (1997) and Kothari and Warner (2006)). Asparouhova et al. (2013, p. 666) write: “For example, examining papers published in only two premier outlets, The Journal of Finance and The Journal of Financial Economics, over a recent 5-year (2005 to 2009) interval, we are able to identify 24 papers that report EW mean returns and compare them across portfolios.”

  2. 2.

    We consider the price-weighted portfolio for robustness even though it is used only occasionally as an index (for example, the Nikkei index, or the Dow Jones 30 Index), and almost never for asset-pricing tests.

  3. 3.

    DeMiguel et al. (2009) show that the performance of the equal-weighted portfolio is no worse than that of portfolios based on mean-variance optimization, such as Markowitz (1952) and its extensions, because of the error in estimating parameters used by the optimizing portfolios; Jacobs et al. (2013) extend this finding to other datasets and asset classes. However, DeMiguel et al. (2009) do not explain how the equal-weighted portfolio would perform relative to value- and price-weighted portfolios. Given that equal-, value-, and price-weighted portfolios do not rely on estimated parameters, it is not clear that one will perform better than the others. In fact, the CAPM suggests that the value-weighted portfolio should outperform the equal- and price-weighted portfolios.

  4. 4.

    Including the reversal factor in addition to the four factors reduces the alpha of the equal-weighted portfolio by 11%, but does not affect the alphas of the value- and price-weighted portfolios.

  5. 5.

    For the literature on momentum and contrarian strategies, see Jegadeesh (1990), Conrad and Kaul (1998), Jegadeesh and Titman (1993, 2002), Lo and MacKinlay (1990), DeMiguel et al. (2013), and Asness et al. (2009).

  6. 6.

    We check the robustness of these results along a variety of dimensions. When selecting a sample of stocks from the S&P 500 index, we don’t consider just one portfolio with 100 stocks, but we resample to select 1,000 portfolios, and all the results we report are based on the performance metrics averaged across these 1,000 portfolios. In addition to the results reported for portfolios with 100 stocks, we consider portfolios with 30, 50, 200, and 300 stocks (again, with resampling over 1,000 portfolios). Besides the stocks sampled from the S&P 500 for large-cap stocks, we also consider stocks from the S&P 400 for mid-cap stocks and the S&P 600 for small-cap stocks. We also test the sensitivity of our results to different time periods and economic conditions: we study the performance of the equal-weighted portfolio relative to the value- and price-weighted portfolios if one had invested in the strategy at the peak of the business cycle (March 2001 or December 2007) or the trough (November 2001). Finally, we use four methods to correct for potential biases arising from noisy prices and liquidity differences across stocks, as suggested in Blume and Stambaugh (1983), Asparouhova et al. (2010, 2013), and Fisher et al. (2010). We find that our results are robust to all these variations, and therefore, our findings about the differences in the returns of equal- and value-weighted portfolios are complementary to theirs.

  7. 7.

    Recent papers that test the relation between expected returns and expected idiosyncratic volatility include Ang et al. (2006, 2009), Spiegel and Wang (2007), Bali and Cakici (2008), Fu (2009), Huang et al. (2010), and Han and Lesmond (2011).

  8. 8.

    For instance, compared to the larger sample of 3,762 stocks used in Asparouhova et al. (2013), we see that the median firm size in their sample is approximately equal to the median firm size in our S&P 600 small-cap sample. Moreover, we also note that even in the S&P 600 small-cap sample the stocks are about two times more liquid than in the larger CRSP sample (using the reciprocal of the Amihud’s liquidity measure as a rough proxy for Amivest’s liquidity measure). Our S&P 500 large-cap sample has larger and more liquid stocks than the sample consisting of all CRSP stocks, and is relatively free from the microstructure and liquidity biases. To ensure that our results are not affected by microstructure biases, we implement four methods to remove potential biases arising from microstructure noise in stock prices that can influence the return of the equal-weighted portfolio (see Asparouhova et al. (2010, 2013)); these robustness tests are discussed in Appendix “Bias in Computed Returns”.

  9. 9.

    Note that, in contrast to the definition usually used in the mutual-fund industry, our measure includes both sales and purchases; so, compared to the industry measure, our measure of turnover is twice as large.

  10. 10.

    The performance of portfolios constructed from the stocks constituents of S&P 400 and S&P 600 is reported in Tables 9 and 10. Comparing these two tables with Table 2, one can verify that the main insights for the weighting rules are similar across the three indexes; see Sect. I for a discussion of this comparison.

  11. 11.

    We use a trading cost of fifty basis points because French (2008, p. 1539) finds that “the aggregate cost of trading U.S. equity falls from 0.55% of total market cap in 1980 to only 0.21% in 2006.” Note that the estimates in French are based on stocks in the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ, while the stocks in our sample are limited to those from the S&P 500, which are likely to have lower trading costs.

  12. 12.

    The estimates of the beta coefficients for the four-factor model are given in Table 3.

  13. 13.

    We also extend the four-factor model by including the reversal factor constructed by K. French and available on his Web site. Over our sample period, the annualized risk premium for reversal is 0.064, and the standard deviation and the correlation of the reversal factor with the other four factors is similar to the standard deviation and correlation between market, size, value, and momentum factors. We find that the exposure of the equal-weighted portfolio to the reversal factor equals 0.0292, and it is significant; the exposures of the value- and price-weighted portfolios to the reversal factor are not statistically significant. Moreover, the five-factor alpha of the equal-weighted portfolio is 0.0155, which is only 11% smaller than the four-factor alpha estimated earlier. Thus, the systematic reversal factor does not account for the high alpha earned by the equal-weighted portfolio, implying that there is a significant unsystematic (idiosyncratic) component of the total return that is earned by the equal-weighted portfolio that is unexplained by the exposure to risk factors. We also extended the model by including the liquidity factor of Pástor and Stambaugh (2003), but it did not affect the model fit in a significant way. The results for models with reversal and liquidity factors are available from the authors.

  14. 14.

    Over our sample period, the annualized factor risk premiums are: MKT −Rf = 0.0494, where Rf = 0.0553, SMB = 0.0272, HML = 0.0496, and, UMD = 0.0861.

  15. 15.

    Romano and Wolf (2013) highlight a weakness of the monotonicity tests proposed by Patton and Timmermann (2010) because the critical values of these tests are based on an additional assumption that if a relation is not strictly monotonically increasing, it must be weakly monotonically decreasing. In light of this, we test for both weakly increasing and weakly decreasing relations, and we infer that a particular relation is weakly increasing only if the null of a weakly increasing relation is not rejected and the null of a weakly decreasing relation is rejected. Moreover, we perform the strong test for a monotonic relation, where we consider not only the pairwise differences of the adjacent data points but also the differences between all possible pairs.

  16. 16.

    In our analysis in Sect. 3, to reduce sample-selection bias we used resampling in the cross-sectional dimension to construct 1,000 portfolios consisting of 100 stocks from the S&P 500 index. The monotonicity-relation tests that we use are based on resampling a given asset in the time-series dimension. Performing resampling in both cross-sectional and times-series dimensions simultaneously is a computationally daunting task, and therefore, to reduce the computational burden while ensuring that the results are not sample-specific, we build portfolios not from individual assets but from “synthetic assets,” which represent average assets across the 1,000 resampled portfolios. That is, each month we take the 1,000 resampled portfolios, each consisting of 100 stocks, and we sort each of these portfolios by a particular characteristic in an increasing manner, so that stock 1 in each portfolio has the lowest value of that characteristic and stock 100 has the highest one. Then we take all stocks with the same rank (that is, its position after sorting) across these 1,000 portfolios and aggregate them into one “synthetic asset,” so that its return equals the mean return of these 1,000 stocks, and its other attributes (that is, size, book-to-market, etc.) are equal to the average values of the same attributes across the 1,000 stocks.

  17. 17.

    However, if one were to examine only the top- and bottom-decile portfolios, one would find both the small-stock effect and the momentum effect: smaller stocks outperform larger stocks (with a significant difference of more than 8% in the returns of the extreme deciles), and high-momentum stocks outperform low-momentum stocks (with a significant difference of more than 3% in the returns of the extreme deciles).

  18. 18.

    Asparouhova et al. (2013, their Table IV) also report the results of the Gibbons et al. (1989) test of the four-factor model for equal- and value-weighted decile portfolios of a large-stock universe sorted by a number of characteristics.

  19. 19.

    Huberman and Kandel (1987) show the relation between these two approaches; for example, if one assumes that the underlying payoff space is described by a one-factor market model, then the SDF is a linear function of excess market return; and in the case of a four-factor Fama and French (1993) and Carhart (1997) model, the SDF can be represented as a linear function of the factors.

  20. 20.

    From this work, we know that the SDF allows us to price assets and that under minimal assumptions there exists at least one SDF, and in the payoff space, there is at most one SDF; that is, there is only one SDF that can be represented as a combination of traded assets.

  21. 21.

    One can show (see, for example, Ferson (1995) and Bekaert and Urias (1996)) that these spanning restrictions are equivalent to the restrictions of Huberman and Kandel (1987) on the existence of benchmark assets that fully span the pricing kernel projected on a given payoff space.

  22. 22.

    Specifically we select stocks that have at least 90% of monthly return observations available over our sample period, and we end up with 105 stocks. Including more stocks leads to higher pricing errors, but the SDF based on value-weighted returns always has a pricing error that is greater than that of the SDF based on equal-weighted returns. For example, selecting stocks that have at least 50% of monthly return observations available gives us 382 stocks, for which the average pricing error is 4.41% when using the SDF from value-weighted excess returns, compared to 2.35% when using the SDF from the equal-weighted excess returns.

  23. 23.

    The study of size and book-to-market is motivated by the work of Conrad et al. (2003). The analysis of momentum and reversal is motivated by the work Jegadeesh (1990) and Jegadeesh and Titman (1993, 2002). The study of liquidity is motivated by the work of Amihud (2002); for a review of the recent literature on liquidity, see Goyenko et al. (2009). A discussion of the recent work on idiosyncratic volatility can be found in Fu (2009).

  24. 24.

    Ferson and Harvey (1999) suggest using generalized least squares for the Fama-MacBeth regressions to improve the efficiency of the estimator; Asparouhova et al. (2010) show that using prior-gross returns of the assets to form the weighting matrix is effective for correcting the biases arising from microstructure effects. A number of studies use value-weighted Fama-MacBeth regressions along with a more standard equal-weighted regressions as a robustness check for establishing the relation between the return and characteristics (see, for example, Ang et al. (2009)).

  25. 25.

    Using price weights gives coefficients that are close to those for value weights, or coefficients that lie inbetween the ones for equal weights and value weights.

  26. 26.

    Because daily data on the bid and ask spread is available from only 1993, we limit our analysis of idiosyncratic volatility to the sample period 1993 until the end of 2009.

  27. 27.

    We perform the orthogonalization even though we do not expect it to have a large impact, because we are working with very large stocks from the S&P 500 index, which are actively traded.

  28. 28.

    We use 10,  000 bootstrap samples with the length of the stationary bootstrap being six months, as recommended for monthly data by Patton and Timmermann (2010).

  29. 29.

    We also correct returns using the prior n-period gross return instead of the one-period gross return, as suggested in Asparouhova et al. (2013). In addition to the case of n = 1 considered above, we consider also the cases where n = 2 and n = 3. We find that our main results are robust to these corrections. Specifically, the total return, one-factor alpha, and the Sharpe ratio for the equal-weighted portfolio decrease with n, but the p-values for the differences of these metrics for the value-weighted portfolio are still equal to zero, even for the case of n = 3. The systematic return for the equal-weighted portfolio increases slightly with n. The only finding that changes as we adjust n is that the point estimate of the 4-factor alpha of the equal-weighted portfolio declines to 0.0104 for n = 2 and to 0.0086 for n = 3, which is still higher than the alpha of 0.0060 for the value-weighted portfolio, but the difference is no longer statistically significant. Note that using n = 6 and n = 12 would be similar to the experiments we conducted in Sect. 4.2 in which we rebalance the equal-weighted portfolio only every six months or twelve months, and similar also to the “buy-and-hold” strategy suggested in Blume and Stambaugh (1983) for correcting the bias arising from noisy prices.

  30. 30.

    That the differences between the mean return of the equal-weighted portfolio and various portfolios after correction of returns are largest for the most illiquid stocks can be seen Table II of Asparouhova et al. (2013). For instance, Panel E of their table reports that the return for the least illiquid decile is 0.441 for the equal-weighted portfolio and 0.430 for the portfolio with prior-gross-return weighting; on the other hand, for the most illiquid decile, the return for the equal-weighted portfolio is 1.580, while for the portfolio with prior-gross-return weighting it is only 1.211. Note, in addition, that the sample studied in Asparouhova et al. (2013) consists of 3,762 stocks from NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ; thus, the top decile ranked by size of their sample is very similar to the entire universe of S&P 500 stocks in our sample, while the stocks in the bottom size decile of their sample are not part of our sample at all.

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Appendices

Appendix 1: Stock Characteristics

This section explains how we use CRSP and COMPUSTAT data to construct the various characteristics used in our analysis. Summary statistics for these characteristics are provided in Table 1.

1.1 Size, Book, Book-to-Market

To compute the size characteristic of the stock, we multiply the stock’s price (as given in CRSP) by the number of the shares outstanding (variable name in COMPUSTAT database: CSHOQ Common Shares Outstanding). To compute the book characteristic, we take current assets (ACTQ Current Assets, Total), subtract current liabilities (LCTQ Current Liabilities D Total), subtract preferred/preference stock redeemable (PSTKRQ Preferred/Preference Stock, Redeemable), and add deferred taxes and investment tax credit (TXDITCQ Deferred Taxes and Investment Tax Credit). The book-to-market characteristic is a ratio of the computed book characteristic and the market characteristic.

1.2 Momentum and Reversal

To compute three- and twelve-month momentum, we aggregate the returns over the past three months (months t − 4 to t − 2) and past twelve months (months t − 13 to t − 2). The stock’s reversal characteristic is the return on the stock in the previous month.

1.3 Liquidity

We compute the Amivest liquidity characteristic (Goyenko et al. 2009) as the previous month’s (22 working days) average of the ratio of the stock’s dollar volume to the absolute value of the return.

1.4 Idiosyncratic Volatility

The typical ARCH model of Engle (1982) gives a volatility prediction at the sampling frequency of the input data. Hence, when the model is fitted to daily returns, it is not very suitable for longer horizon forecasts that we need for a typical passive investor. Some recent papers (see, for example, Fu (2009)) suggest using for this purpose the EGARCH model of Nelson (1991) fitted to monthly excess returns, but in our experiments the estimation did not lead to very stable results. To increase the stability of the estimation and the amount of data available for it, we utilize the MIDAS (Ghysels et al. 2005) approach. It separates the volatilities into short-run and long-run components, and the latter can be used to predict the second moments at a slower frequency than the data.

For the conditional expectation of idiosyncratic volatility we use the long-term volatility component from the asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model that we fit to the residual from regressing the daily stock return on the Fama and French (1993) factors. For a detailed discussion of MIDAS models for volatility modeling see, for example, Ghysels et al. (2005), Engle et al. (2008).

Specifically, excess volatilities follow the ASYGARCH-MIDAS process as follows:

$$\displaystyle \begin{aligned} \begin{array}{rcl} r_{k,t} & =&\displaystyle \alpha_{k,t}+\beta^{MKT}_{k,t}\times F^{M}_{t}+\beta^{SMB}_{k,t}\times F^{SMB}_{t}+\beta^{HML}_{k,t}\times F^{HML}_{t}+\varepsilon_{k,t} \end{array} \end{aligned} $$
(11)
$$\displaystyle \begin{aligned} \begin{array}{rcl} \varepsilon_{k,t} & =&\displaystyle \sqrt{m_{k,t}\times g_{k,t}}\xi _{k,t} \end{array} \end{aligned} $$
(12)
$$\displaystyle \begin{aligned} \begin{array}{rcl} g_{k,t} & =&\displaystyle (1-\alpha _{k}-\kappa _{k})+\alpha _{k}\frac{\varepsilon_{k,t}^{2}}{m_{k,t}}+\kappa _{k}\cdot g_{k,t-1} \end{array} \end{aligned} $$
(13)
$$\displaystyle \begin{aligned} \begin{array}{rcl} m_{k,t} & =&\displaystyle \overline{m}_{k}+ \theta^{+}_{k}\sum_{l=1}^{Lv}\varphi (\omega^{+} _{k,v})\times RV^{+}_{k,t-l}+ \theta^{-}_{k}\sum_{l=1}^{Lv}\varphi (\omega^{-} _{k,v})\times RV^{-}_{k,t-l} \end{array} \end{aligned} $$
(14)
$$\displaystyle \begin{aligned} \begin{array}{rcl} RV^{+}_{k,t}& =&\displaystyle \frac{1}{N^{+}}\sum_{\tau=0}^{20}\left(r_{k,t-\tau}*1_{r_{k,t-\tau>0}}\right) ^{2}, \ \ \ RV^{-}_{k,t}=\frac{1}{N^{-}}\sum_{\tau=0}^{20}\left(r_{k,t-\tau}*1_{r_{k,t-\tau<0}}\right) ^{2},\\ \end{array} \end{aligned} $$
(15)

where r k,t is the (daily) return of asset k = 1, 2, …, N, \(F^{J}_{t}\) is factor \(J\in \left \{MKT,SMB,HML\right \}\), the short-run idiosyncratic volatility component g k,t follows a unit GARCH process, and the long-run idiosyncratic volatility component m k,t is the weighted sum of positive (\(RV^{+}_{k,t}\)) and negative (\(RV^{-}_{k,t}\)) mean-squared-return innovations (where N + and N are the number of positive and negative return innovations, respectively). To aggregate the past RV ’s, we use the Beta polynomial weighting functions φ(ω +), and φ(ω ) with Lv = 126 lags.

We fit the above model for each underlying stock at the end of each month, using three years of daily returns. We use maximum likelihood to find simultaneously factor sensitivities (\(\beta ^{J}_{k,t}\)), the parameters of the short-run volatility α k and κ k, the parameters of the long-run volatility \(\overline {m}_{k}\), \(\theta ^{+}_{k}\), \(\theta ^{-}_{k}\), and the optimal weights for the Beta weighting function ω + and ω . After estimating these parameters, we compute the predicted value of long-run idiosyncratic volatility m k,t and use that as the characteristic for idiosyncratic volatility.

After we compute the predicted long-run idiosyncratic volatility, we also produce a “clean” version of it by taking out the effect of illiquidity of individual stocks as suggested by Han and Lesmond (2011). We describe this procedure in Sect. 5.4.

Appendix 2: Resampling Procedures and Monotonicity Relation Tests

From February 1967 to the end of 2009 there were 1,449 stocks that were part of the S&P 500 index. Our time series consists of 515 months, which corresponds to 43 years. From the set of 1,449 stocks, we randomly choose a sample of stocks that are constituents of the index at the time they are selected.

We work with these samples and construct portfolios of different stock numbers: N = {30, 50, 100, 200, 300} stocks. In order to reduce the selection bias, for each portfolio with N stocks, we randomly resample to select N stocks 1,000 times and construct 1,000 portfolios. To compute the portfolio performance metrics, we compute the performance metrics for each of the 1,000 portfolios and report the performance metrics averaged across these 1,000 portfolios.

In Sect. 5.3, we study the characteristics of assets that potentially drive the differences in the performance of the equal-, value- and price-based weighting rules. To perform the monotonicity test for each resampled set of assets for each portfolio would be very demanding in terms of computer power and time.

Therefore, we carry out a special procedure to create “synthetic” assets described next. For each of the 1,000 portfolios consisting of N = 100 stocks, we sort the stocks at the end of each month by a particular characteristic. From these 1,000 sorted portfolios we create 100 synthetic assets, where for each asset j = {1, …, 100} the characteristic is set equal to the mean characteristic of all stocks across the thousand portfolios with rank j after the sorting procedure, and the return of the synthetic asset j for the next period is equal to the mean return of all the stocks with the same rank j. Then, we group the sorted assets into deciles and compute the return for each decile by applying equal, value, and price weights within each decile.

We then analyze the performance of the portfolio deciles constructed from the synthetic assets. Each decile’s characteristic is the time-series mean of an average value of the characteristic of the assets in this decile. Annualized returns of each decile expressed in percentage are computed as the time-series mean of the returns of the portfolios constructed from the assets of that decile, with three different weighting rules (equal-, value- and price-weighted), for each decile. Each decile return is then weighted by the weight of the respective decile in the large portfolio of synthetic assets.

To test for an increasing (decreasing) relation we form the pairwise differences of the values of the test series, that is, the value of decile i minus the value of decile i − 1, where i = {2, …, 10}, bootstrap the differences in the time-series dimension,Footnote 28 find the minimum (maximum) of each bootstrapped sample, and compute the probability that the minimum (maximum) of the differences is greater (smaller) than the sample minimum (maximum) of the differences. We also perform a stronger test for a monotonic relation, in which we consider not only the pairwise differences of the adjacent data points but also the differences between all possible pairs.

Appendix 3: Robustness Tests

In this section, we briefly discuss some of the experiments we have undertaken to verify the robustness of our findings.

1.1 Different Number of Stocks

The results that we have reported are for portfolios with N = 100 stocks. In addition to considering portfolios with 100 stocks, we also consider portfolios with 30, 50, 200, and 300 stocks (again, with resampling over 1,000 portfolios). We find that our results are not sensitive to the number of assets in the portfolio. To conserve space, these results are not reported.

1.2 Different Stock Indexes

In addition to stocks sampled from the S&P 500 for large-cap stocks, we consider also stocks from the S&P 400 for mid-cap stocks, and the S&P 600 for small-cap stocks. The performance of portfolios constructed from the stocks constituents of S&P 400 and S&P 600 is reported in Tables 9 and 10, respectively. Comparing the performance metrics in these tables to those for the stocks constituents of S&P 500, we see that the main insights for the weighting rules are similar across the three indexes.

Table 9 Portfolio Performance for S&P 400 Constituent Stocks. In this table we report the performance metrics of the portfolios constructed from the constituents of the S&P 400 index. All metrics are calculated using monthly returns from July 1991 to December 2009 (222 months). The first column gives the various metrics we use to measure portfolio performance on a per annum basis. The remaining columns report the performance, before transactions costs, and net of transactions costs of fifty basis points, for portfolios formed using different weighting rules: EW denotes the equal-weighted portfolio; VW, the value-weighted portfolio; and PW, the price-weighted portfolio
Table 10 Portfolio Performance for S&P 600 Constituent Stocks. In this table we report the performance metrics of the portfolios constructed from the constituents of the S&P 600 index. All metrics are calculated using monthly returns from November 1994 to December 2009 (182 months). The first column gives the various metrics we use to measure portfolio performance on a per annum basis. The remaining columns report the performance, before transactions costs, and net of transactions costs of fifty basis points, for portfolios formed using different weighting rules: EW denotes the equal-weighted portfolio; VW, the value-weighted portfolio; and PW, the price-weighted portfolio

1.3 Different Economic Conditions

We also investigate whether the superior performance of the equal-weighted portfolio relative to the value- and price-weighted portfolios is sensitive to the date on which one invests in the portfolio. In particular, we examine whether the relative performance of these portfolios is different if one starts at the peak or trough of the business cycle.

The NBER identifies peaks of the business cycle in March 2001 and December 2007, and a trough in November 2001. In Table 11, we report the performance of the equal-, value-, and price-weighted portfolios starting at these three dates and that are held to the end of our data period, December 2009. For all three starting dates, we find that the equal-weighted portfolio has a significantly higher total mean return. For all three starting dates, the one-factor and four-factor alphas are significantly higher for the equal-weighted portfolio relative to the value-weighted portfolios. In fact, the four-factor alpha for the equal-weighted portfolio is positive for all three starting dates, while it is negative for the value-weighted portfolio for the start dates of March 2001 and December 2007. The Sharpe ratio of the equal-weighted portfolio also exceeds that of the value- and price-weighted portfolios. For instance, if one had initiated the portfolios at the peak of March 2001, the Sharpe ratio of the equal-weighted portfolio would have been 0.2639 compared to only 0.0037 for the value-weighted portfolio; if one had started at the trough of November 2001, the Sharpe ratio of the equal-weighted portfolio would have been 0.3615 rather than the 0.1252 for the value-weighted portfolio; and, if one had started at the peak of December 2007, the Sharpe ratio of the equal-weighted portfolio would have been − 0.0795 while that of the value-weighted portfolio was − 0.3780, and that for the price-weighted portfolio was − 0.2995. The certainty equivalent return for an investor with a risk aversion of γ = 2 is also higher for the equal-weighted portfolio relative to the value- and price-weighted portfolios. For a risk aversion of γ = 5, the equal-weighted portfolio outperforms the value-weighted portfolio but not the price-weighted portfolio; however, in both cases the difference is not statistically significant.

Table 11 Portfolio Performance for Different Start Dates Over Business Cycle. In this table we report the performance metrics for portfolios constructed from the constituents of the S&P 500 index. All metrics are calculated using monthly returns with different starting dates but all ending at December 2009. The three starting dates considered are: the peak of the business cycle in March 2001; the trough of November 2001; and, the peak of the business cycle in December 2007. The first column gives the various metrics we use to measure portfolio performance on a per annum basis. The remaining columns report the performance, before transactions costs and net of transactions costs of fifty basis points for portfolios formed using different weighting rules: EW denotes the equal-weighted portfolio; VW, the value-weighted portfolio; and PW, the price-weighted portfolio

1.4 Bias in Computed Returns

In this section, we examine the effect on our findings of correcting returns for the potential biases that may arise from noisy prices and liquidity differences. To make this correction, we use the approaches suggested in Blume and Stambaugh (1983), Asparouhova et al. (2010, 2013), and Fisher et al. (2010).

Asparouhova et al. (2013) show that for realistic assumptions about the noise parameter, the first-best method for reducing the bias in the estimated performance of the equal-weighted portfolio is to use prior-gross-return weighting (RW) instead of the pure equal weighting (EW):

$$\displaystyle \begin{aligned}w^{RW}_{t,i}=\frac{r_{t-1,i}+1}{\sum^{N}_{i=1}(r_{t-1,i}+1)}.\end{aligned}$$

In this case, the value- and price-weighted portfolios are still computed using the end-of-month returns reported in CRSP.

Comparing the results in Table 12 to those in Table 2, we see that using prior-gross-return weighting instead of the standard equal weighting reduces the total and nonsystematic returns only slightly and does not change our main conclusions. For example, the total return of the equal-weighted portfolio after the correction is 0.1292, instead of the previously reported 0.1319; moreover, even with the correction, the equal-weighted portfolio outperforms the value- and price-weighted portfolios at less than 1% significance level. Similarly, the systematic return of the equal-weighted portfolio after the correction is 0.1146, instead of the previously reported 0.1144; and, even with the correction, the equal-weighted portfolio outperforms value-weighted at less than 1% significance level. Finally, the four-factor alpha of the equal-weighted portfolio using the prior-gross-return weighting to construct the equal-weighted portfolio is 1.46%, instead of the previously reported 1.75% for the equal-weighted portfolio using uncorrected returns; the p-value of the difference with the alpha for the value-weighted portfolio is now 6%, instead of the earlier p-value of 2%, and for the difference with the alpha of the price-weighted portfolio, the p-value is still smaller than 1%.

Table 12 Portfolio Performance with Prior-Gross-Return Weighting for Equal-Weighted Portfolio. In this table we report the performance metrics for portfolios constructed from the constituents of the S&P 500 index. All metrics are calculated using monthly returns from February 1967 to December 2009 (515 months). The performance of the equal-weighted portfolio is computed using the prior-gross-return weighting. The first column gives the various metrics we use to measure portfolio performance on a per annum basis. The remaining columns report the performance, before transactions costs, and net of transactions costs of fifty basis points, for portfolios formed using different weighting rules: EW denotes the equal-weighted portfolio; VW, the value-weighted portfolio; and PW, the price-weighted portfolio

Thus, we conclude from Table 12 that using prior-gross-return weighting instead of pure equal weighting does not alter the main conclusions of our analysis: (i) the outperformance of the equal-weighted portfolio relative to value- and price-weighted portfolios is monotonically related to the average value of various characteristics of the stocks in each portfolio; (ii) part of the outperformance across the three weighting schemes arises from differences in systematic risk, which stems from a difference in exposure to common factors; and, (iii) the nonsystematic outperformance measured by differences in the alphas is a result of more frequent rebalancing of the equal-weighted portfolio as compared to value- and price-weighted portfolios.Footnote 29 Therefore, our findings about the differences in the returns of equal- and value-weighted portfolios are complementary to the findings of Asparouhova et al. (2013).

Table 13 presents the results of the Patton and Timmermann (2010) monotonicity tests when the returns of the equal-weighted portfolio are constructed using prior-gross-return weighting. Comparing the statistics in Table 13 to those reported in Table 4, we see that the results are almost unchanged, with one exception: for the liquidity characteristic, we now fail to reject both increasing and decreasing relations between liquidity of the stocks and the outperformance of the equal-weighted portfolio compared to value- and price-weighted portfolios. This is consistent with the insight in Asparouhova et al. (2010).

Table 13 Tests of Monotonicity Relations with Prior-Gross-Return Weighting for Equal-Weighted Portfolio. In this table we report the p-values of the Patton and Timmermann (2010) test for a monotonic relation between a particular characteristic listed in the first column, and the difference in performance of the equal- and value-weighted portfolios (EW−VW), and the equal- and price-weighted portfolios (EW−PW). The performance of the equal-weighted portfolio is computed using the prior gross-return weighting. We report the p-values of the null hypothesis that difference in returns is increasing with respect to a given characteristic (first row) and also that the difference in returns is decreasing with respect to that characteristic (second row). We undertake two tests: in the first we consider only the differences of neighboring pairs of data points; in the second, stronger, test, we consider also the differences between all possible pairs. The analysis is based on monthly returns from February 1967 to December 2009

There are three additional methods that one can use to correct from the potential bias arising from microstructure effects. Each of these methods requires additional information—either about bid-ask prices, or about trading volume. The first additional method is to correct the end-of-month returns for the bid-ask bias by computing returns as follows:

$$\displaystyle \begin{aligned}r_{t,i}=\tilde{r}_{t,i}-\left(\frac{ask_{t-1,i}-bid_{t-1,i}}{ask_{t-1,i}+bid_{t-1,i}}\right)^{2},\end{aligned}$$

where \(\tilde {r}_{t,i}\) is the “noisy” closing return reported in CRSP for time t and stock i, and r t,i is the return after correction. The second additional approach for correcting returns for microstructure effects is to use the midpoint of the closing bid and ask prices from CRSP. The third additional approach is to compute returns using the volume-weighted average prices (VWAP) for the last day of each month from the TAQ Database.

Note, however, that the bid and ask prices, as well as the high-frequency trading data are not available for our entire sample period, so we implement these three additional correction measures only for the period of 1995 to 2009 (180 points). In order to compare the results using the four methods for reducing the bias described above, with the results without correction for the bias, we report in Table 14 the “base-case” results, which are based on the methodology adopted in our manuscript using end-of-month CRSP returns, but for the period of 1995 to 2009. We report in Table 15 the results based on the prior-gross-return weighting for the period 1995–2009, and in Tables 16, 17, and 18, the results for the three additional correction methods described above.

Table 14 Portfolio Performance Using Returns From Closing Prices without Correction (Base Case). In this table we report the performance metrics for portfolios constructed from the constituents of the S&P 500 index. All metrics are calculated using monthly returns from January 1995 to December 2009 (180 points). The first column gives the various metrics we use to measure portfolio performance on a per annum basis. The remaining columns report the performance, before transactions costs, and net of transactions costs of fifty basis points, for portfolios formed using different weighting rules: EW denotes the equal-weighted portfolio; VW, the value-weighted portfolio; and PW, the price-weighted portfolio
Table 15 Portfolio Performance with Prior-Gross-Return Weighting for the Equal-Weighted Portfolio (Case 1). In this table we report the performance metrics for portfolios constructed from the constituents of the S&P 500 index. All metrics are calculated using monthly returns from January 1995 to December 2009 (180 points). The performance of the equal-weighted portfolio is computed using the prior-gross-return weighting. The first column gives the various metrics we use to measure portfolio performance on a per annum basis. The remaining columns report the performance, before transactions costs, and net of transactions costs of fifty basis points, for portfolios formed using different weighting rules: EW denotes the equal-weighted portfolio; VW, the value-weighted portfolio; and PW, the price-weighted portfolio
Table 16 Portfolio Performance Using Returns From Bid-Ask Prices (Case 2). In this table we report the performance metrics for portfolios constructed from the constituents of the S&P 500 index. All metrics are calculated using monthly returns from January 1995 to December 2009 (180 points). The performance of the equal-weighted portfolio is computed with returns corrected for potential biases using bid-ask prices. The first column gives the various metrics we use to measure portfolio performance on a per annum basis. The remaining columns report the performance, before transactions costs, and net of transactions costs of fifty basis points, for portfolios formed using different weighting rules: EW denotes the equal-weighted portfolio; VW, the value-weighted portfolio; and PW, the price-weighted portfolio
Table 17 Portfolio Performance Using Returns from Midpoint of Bid and Ask Prices (Case 3). In this table we report the performance metrics for portfolios constructed from the constituents of the S&P 500 index. All metrics are calculated using monthly returns from January 1995 to December 2009 (180 points). The performance of the equal-weighted portfolio is computed using the returns computed from the midpoint of closing bid and ask prices instead of closing prices. The first column gives the various metrics we use to measure portfolio performance on a per annum basis. The remaining columns report the performance, before transactions costs, and net of transactions costs of fifty basis points, for portfolios formed using different weighting rules: EW denotes the equal-weighted portfolio; VW, the value-weighted portfolio; and PW, the price-weighted portfolio
Table 18 Portfolio Performance Using Returns from Volume-Weighted Average Prices (Case 4). In this table we report the performance metrics for portfolios constructed from the constituents of the S&P 500 index. All metrics are calculated using returns computed from value-weighted average prices for the last day of each month from the TAQ Database from January 1995 to December 2009 (180 points). The performance of the equal-weighted portfolio is computed the volume-weighted average prices (VWAP) for the last day of each month. The first column gives the various metrics we use to measure portfolio performance on a per annum basis. The remaining columns report the performance, before transactions costs, and net of transactions costs of fifty basis points, for portfolios formed using different weighting rules: EW denotes the equal-weighted portfolio; VW, the value-weighted portfolio; and PW, the price-weighted portfolio

We see from these tables that: (i) For all four bias-reduction methods, the equal-weighted portfolio outperforms the value- and price-weighted portfolios, and this outperformance is statistically significant for total return, systematic return, and the one- and four-factor alphas in most of the cases. (ii) The systematic return for the base case without bias correction is almost identical to the systematic return for the four cases with bias correction. (iii) We observe some variation in factor alphas among bias-correction methods, but the difference between alphas for equal-weighted and other portfolios is stable, and it continues to be economically significant. (iv) The noise in prices and the shorter sample period reduce slightly the statistical significance in the difference between the four-factor alphas of the equal- and value-weighted portfolios, and the one-factor alphas of the equal- and price-weighted portfolios.

Based on the above analysis, we conclude that the bias in end-of-month returns is very small in the context of our analysis, and it does not change the findings of our paper. The main reason why our results are not affected by these corrections for differences in bid-ask spreads and liquidity across stocks is because these differences are much smaller in the samples with which we are working. That is, because we are looking at stocks only in the S&P 500, the heterogeneity across stocks is much smaller than it is across the entire population of stocks in the CRSP database. Moreover, the effect of the correction for differences in bid-ask spreads and liquidity across stocks is largest for small stocks.Footnote 30

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Plyakha, Y., Uppal, R., Vilkov, G. (2021). Equal or Value Weighting? Implications for Asset-Pricing Tests. In: Zopounidis, C., Benkraiem, R., Kalaitzoglou, I. (eds) Financial Risk Management and Modeling. Risk, Systems and Decisions. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-66691-0_9

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