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A Deep Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 in India: Using Ensemble Regression Approach

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Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for COVID-19

Part of the book series: Studies in Computational Intelligence ((SCI,volume 924))

Abstract

COVID-19 is a highly communicative disease that is spread throughout the world. It originated in the city of Wuhan, in China’s Hubei Province, in December of 2019. At this writing, COVID-19 has spread throughout 213 countries, and more than ten million people have been infected globally. India has ranked topmost among countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is positioned at fourth place in all of the world. The first case of Covid-19 there was detected on 30 January 2020 in Kerala; by 3 July 2020 the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus had increased to around 625,544. It was first, detected in India on 30-January-2020 in Kerala and confirmed cases have increased as 6,25,544 till third-July-2020 across India. As the cases increases and India tas world ranking goes up, it is urgent an analysis of India’s COVID-19 epidemic be conducted. This analytical study presents the effects and trends of the COVID-19 outbreak in India using machine learning and data science techniques along with helpful visual graphs. State-wise, gender-wise and age-wise analyses are presented based on machine learning. Four ensembles, Gradient-Boosting Regressor, Ada-Boost Regressor, Extra-Trees Regressor and Random-Forest Regressor, are applied to the latest confirmed, recovered and death records in India, for predicting COVID-19’s effects and trends. The R2 score has been used to measure the effectiveness of regression models. The Gradient-Boosting Regressor scores 99.37%, Extra-Trees Regressor scores 99.86%, Ada-Boost Regressor scores 92.88% and Random-Forest Regressor scores 99.43%. It has revealed that Extra-Trees Regressor outperforms for predicting the confirmed, cured and deaths cases of COVID-19 pandemic in India.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ambedkar Institute of Advanced Communication Technologies and Research, Govt of NCT of Delhi, New Delhi, Delhi, India

    Dimple Tiwari & Bhoopesh Singh Bhati

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  1. Dimple Tiwari
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  2. Bhoopesh Singh Bhati
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Correspondence to Bhoopesh Singh Bhati .

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  1. Professor and Research Center Director, Near East University, Nicosia, Mersin, Turkey

    Fadi Al-Turjman

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Tiwari, D., Bhati, B.S. (2021). A Deep Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 in India: Using Ensemble Regression Approach. In: Al-Turjman, F. (eds) Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for COVID-19. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 924. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60188-1_5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60188-1_5

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-60187-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-60188-1

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