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Short-Term Forecast of Emergency Departments Visits Through Calendar Selection

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Theory and Applications of Time Series Analysis (ITISE 2019)

Part of the book series: Contributions to Statistics ((CONTRIB.STAT.))

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Abstract

Emergency Departments (ED) overcrowding is a common and well-known problem, associated with decreased patient safety, increased mortality rates, and which leads to staff burning out. The ability to predict the ED hourly visits can then relieve overcrowding’s consequences. In this paper (The content of this paper is a contribution to the International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting 2019 (ITISE2019), held in Granada [1].), we present a method which takes into account calendar effects for short-term forecasting of ED visits is presented. Our approach combines a calendar selection rule with a well-known machine learning algorithm belonging to the class of similar shape algorithms, to predict the incoming visit volume for a tunable number of days ahead.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Energy, Systems, Territory and Constructions Engineering, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy

    Cosimo Lovecchio, Mauro Tucci & Sami Barmada

  2. AUSL Tuscany South-East, Grosseto, Italy

    Andrea Serafini, Luigi Bechi, Mauro Breggia & Simona Dei

  3. AUSL Tuscany Center, Florence, Italy

    Daniela Matarrese

Authors
  1. Cosimo Lovecchio
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  2. Mauro Tucci
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  3. Sami Barmada
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  4. Andrea Serafini
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  5. Luigi Bechi
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  6. Mauro Breggia
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  7. Simona Dei
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  8. Daniela Matarrese
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mauro Tucci .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Sciences, University of Granada, Granada, Spain

    Olga Valenzuela

  2. ETSIIT, CITIC-UGR, University of Granada, Granada, Spain

    Fernando Rojas

  3. ETSIIT, CITIC-UGR, University of Granada, Granada, Spain

    Luis Javier Herrera

  4. ETSIIT, CITIC-UGR, University of Granada, Granada, Spain

    HĂ©ctor Pomares

  5. ETSIIT, CITIC-UGR, University of Granada, Granada, Spain

    Ignacio Rojas

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© 2020 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG

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Lovecchio, C. et al. (2020). Short-Term Forecast of Emergency Departments Visits Through Calendar Selection. In: Valenzuela, O., Rojas, F., Herrera, L.J., Pomares, H., Rojas, I. (eds) Theory and Applications of Time Series Analysis. ITISE 2019. Contributions to Statistics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-56219-9_27

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