Abstract
This chapter examines the range of studies that have been produced to predict the likely economic impact of Brexit. It considers the suggestion that a broad consensus exists amongst economists, that Brexit would prove damaging to the UK economy, and notes that this claim was based primarily upon a small sub-set of studies rather than reflecting the more complicated range of forecasts produced by economists more generally. This chapter examines the methodologies adopted by this group of more influential studies and highlights a number of flaws which have weakened the robustness and reliability of their conclusions.
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Notes
- 1.
Exponents of this viewpoint included former Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne, former Prime MinisterCameron, former Governor of the Bank of England Carney, the head of the IMF Lagarde, Director General of the CBI, Fairbairn (CBI via PwC, 2016). See https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/economists-say-no-to-brexit.html; https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron; https://www.ft.com/content/e66852f0-3249-11e6-ad39-3fee5ffe5b5b; http://www.politico.eu/article/george-osborne-economic-case-against-brexit-not-a-conspiracy-eu-referendum-date-june-23/.
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- 3.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3be49734-29cb-11e6-83e4-abc22d5d108c.html#ixzz4ExYoJJNI; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/21/in-defence-of-experts-whether-they-support-leave-or-remain/; https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/09/michael-gove-experts-academics-vote; http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/professor-brian-cox-michael-gove-experts_uk_5777dceee4b073366f0f20b5.
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- 5.
- 6.
Although it might be worth noting in passing that in the five years following withdrawal from the EU in 1985, the Greenland economy grew by an average of 5.7% (Blake 2016: 5).
- 7.
- 8.
- 9.
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- 11.
The report predicted that each UK household could gain £933 per year. Since the Office of National Statistics (ONS) calculates that there are 27 million households in the UK, this equates to a net Brexit gain of £25.2bn (1.35% UK GDP). See http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/bulletins/familiesandhouseholds/2015-11-05.
- 12.
Lord Owen: ‘There is no need to be afraid of leaving the EU’, The Daily Telegraph, 28 May 2016. Available via: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/28/lord-owen-there-is-no-need-to-be-afraid-of-leaving-the-eu/.
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Whyman, P.B., Petrescu, A.I. (2020). The Elusive Economic Consensus over Brexit. In: The Economics of Brexit. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-55948-9_1
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