Abstract
The dominant view of the Middle East as a region of disorder is flawed, as order remains despite the chaos. From the mid-1950s to the Arab Spring first movement, a bipolar security system dominated the Gulf Region and the broader Middle East. Competing in this system are two alignments: the status quo and the revisionist. This system survived the Arab Spring revolutionary wave, but the latter also introduced a systemic change in the form of the supremacy of the Gulf parties over the rest. In this chapter, the allocation of the power center from the Levant to the Gulf region with attached power politics is called Gulfization. The implications of Gulfization are far-reaching, as the Gulf issues gain primacy in the region and dictate the future struggle in the Middle East as between two versions of Islamism.
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Notes
- 1.
Eduard Soler i Lecha, “Liquid Alliances in the Middle East,” Notes Internacionals CIDOB (Barcelona Centre for International Affairs [CIDOB], March 2017), https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/publication_series/notes_internacionals/n1_169/liquid_alliances_in_the_middle_east.
- 2.
Marc Lynch, “The New Arab Order: Power and Violence in Today’s Middle East,” Foreign Affairs 97, no. 1 (October 2018): 116–26.
- 3.
See for e.g., “Enemies, Alliances and Animosity in the Middle East,” The Economist, January 7, 2016, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2016/01/07/enemies-alliances-and-animosity-in-the-middle-east.
- 4.
This is by no means to say that Sunni and Shiite are just different labels for the same phenomenon of Islamism international. It does imply, however, that despite their fierce theological differences, Sunni and Shiite Islamists share the same values, establishing a Sharia-based government, and the same foes, the West and its allies in the region.
- 5.
Barry Buzan and Ole Waever, Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003), 191–93; Keith Smith, “Realist Foreign Policy Analysis with a Twist: The Persian Gulf Security Complex and the Rise and Fall of Dual Containment,” Foreign Policy Analysis 12, no. 3 (July 2016): 320, https://doi.org/10.1111/fpa.12084.
- 6.
F. Gregory Gause, The International Relations of the Persian Gulf (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), 3–6.
- 7.
Buzan and Waever, Regions and Powers, 192–93.
- 8.
Philipp O. Amour, “Revolutionary Changes, Power Dynamics, and Regional Rivalries since the Arab Spring: An Introduction,” in The Middle East Reloaded: Revolutionary Changes, Power Dynamics, and Regional Rivalries since the Arab Spring, ed. Philipp O. Amour, St. James’s Studies in World Affairs (Washington: Academica Press, 2018), 7–8.
- 9.
Patrick E. Tyler, “Two Said to Tell of Libyan Plot against Saudi,” New York Times, June 10, 2004, https://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/10/world/two-said-to-tell-of-libyan-plot-against-saudi.html.
- 10.
Smith, “Realist Foreign Policy Analysis with a Twist,” 320–21.
- 11.
Malcolm H. Kerr, The Arab Cold War: Gamal Abd al-Nasir and His Rivals, 1958–1970, 3rd ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1971).
- 12.
Morten Valbjørn and André Bank, “The New Arab Cold War: Rediscovering the Arab Dimension of Middle East Regional Politics,” Review of International Studies 38, no. 1 (January 2012): 3–24, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0260210511000283.
- 13.
Curtis Ryan, “The New Arab Cold War and the Struggle for Syria,” Middle East Report 262 (Spring 2012): 29.
- 14.
Nabeel A. Khoury, “The Arab Cold War Revisited: The Regional Impact of the Arab Uprising,” Middle East Policy 20, no. 2 (2013): 73–87, https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12021.
- 15.
F. Gregory Gause, “Balancing What? Threat Perception and Alliance Choice in the Gulf,” Security Studies 13, no. 2 (2004): 273–305, https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410490521271.
- 16.
Buzan and Waever, Regions and Powers, 187.
- 17.
Aharon Klieman, “The Israel-Jordan Tacit Security Regime,” in Regional Security Regimes: Israel and Its Neighbors, ed. Efraim Inbar (New York: State University of New York Press, 1995), 129–30.
- 18.
Clive Jones and Yoel Guzansky, “Israel’s Relations with the Gulf States: Toward the Emergence of a Tacit Security Regime?” Contemporary Security Policy 38, no. 3 (2017): 398–419, https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2017.1292375.
- 19.
The term “camp” is preferred here to the terms “regime” and “alliance” for it typifies (1) the informal, non-contractual nature of relations within the group of states; and (2) the incoherent nature, including competition and cooperation, of their dealings between each other and vis-a-vis the other group of states.
- 20.
Arnold Wolfers, “The Balance of Power in Theory and Practice,” Naval War College Review 11, no. 5 (1959): 11–13; A. F. K. Organski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger (Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1980), 19–20.
- 21.
Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 5th ed. (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1978), 46.
- 22.
Randall L. Schweller, “Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In,” International Security 19, no. 1 (Summer 1994): 105, https://doi.org/10.2307/2539149.
- 23.
David Zionts, “Revisionism and Its Variants: Understanding State Reactions to Foreign Policy Failure,” Security Studies 15, no. 4 (October 2006): 633, https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410601184611.
- 24.
Walter Russell Mead, “The Return of Geopolitics: The Revenge of the Revisionist Powers,” Foreign Affairs 93, no. 3 (June 2014): 69–79.
- 25.
As such, this constellation predates the formation of the Gulf subcomplex after Britain’s withdrawal from the region in 1971, as in: Buzan and Waever, Regions and Powers, 191.
- 26.
The most committed to this alliance, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey, along with the United Kingdom, jointly established the Middle East Treaty Organization (METO), or Baghdad Pact, in 1955.
- 27.
Jason W. Davidson, “The Roots of Revisionism: Fascist Italy, 1922–39,” Security Studies 11, no. 4 (June 2002): 126, https://doi.org/10.1080/714005356.
- 28.
Ka Po Ng, Interpreting China’s Military Power: Doctrine Makes Readiness (Abingdon, UK: Taylor & Francis, 2005), 10–11, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203325902.
- 29.
Kerr, The Arab Cold War, 6–7.
- 30.
Philipp O. Amour, “Palestinian Politics in Transition: The Case of the October War,” in The Yom Kippur War: Politics, Legacy, Diplomacy, ed. Asaf Siniver (Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press, 2013), 137–54.
- 31.
Saad Eddin Ibrahim, “Anatomy of Egypt’s Militant Islamic Groups: Methodological Note and Preliminary Findings,” International Journal of Middle East Studies 12, no. 4 (December 1980): 430.
- 32.
James A. Bill, “Resurgent Islam in the Persian Gulf,” Foreign Affairs 63, no. 1 (1984): 110–11, https://doi.org/10.2307/20042088.
- 33.
Fouad Ajami, “America and the Arabs,” Foreign Affairs 80, no. 6 (November 2001): 6–7.
- 34.
F. Gregory Gause, “Saudi Arabia’s Regional Security Strategy,” in International Politics of the Persian Gulf, ed. Mehran Kamrava (New York: Syracuse University Press, 2011), 169–83.
- 35.
David Goldfischer, “The United States and Its Key Gulf Allies: A New Foundation for a Troubled Partnership,” in The Small Gulf States: Foreign and Security Policies before and after the Arab Spring, ed. Jean-Marc Rickli and Khalid S. Almezaini (London: Routledge, 2017), 69.
- 36.
Bill, “Resurgent Islam in the Persian Gulf,” 123–24.
- 37.
Danny Orbach, “Tyrannicide in Radical Islam: The Case of Sayyid Qutb and Abd al-Salam Faraj,” Middle Eastern Studies 48, no. 6 (2012): 961–72, https://doi.org/10.1080/00263206.2012.723629.
- 38.
Gause, “Saudi Arabia’s Regional Security Strategy,” 172.
- 39.
Mohsen M. Milani, The Making of Iran’s Islamic Revolution (Boulder: Westview Press, 1994), 39.
- 40.
Shaharam Akbarzadeh, “Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council Sheikhdoms,” in The Small Gulf States: Foreign and Security Policies before and after the Arab Spring, ed. Jean-Marc Rickli and Khalid S. Almezaini (London: Routledge, 2017), 90–96.
- 41.
Elie Kedouri, Politics in the Middle East (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992), 330.
- 42.
Mehdi Khalaji, “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and Iran,” The Washington Institute, February 12, 2009, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/egypts-muslim-brotherhood-and-iran.
- 43.
Jeffrey Goldberg, “Saudi Crown Prince: Iran’s Supreme Leader ‘Makes Hitler Look Good’,” The Atlantic, April 2, 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/04/mohammed-bin-salman-iran-israel/557036/.
- 44.
Gamal Abul Hassan, “Defending the Regional Order Is a Political Must (in Arabic),” Asharq Al-Awsat, February 27, 2016, https://aawsat.com/home/writer/Gamal%20Abu%20Alhasan.
- 45.
See Klieman, “The Israel-Jordan Tacit Security Regime”; Jones and Guzansky, “Israel’s Relations with the Gulf States.”
- 46.
Gause, The International Relations of the Persian Gulf, 129.
- 47.
Gause, 7.
- 48.
Suzanne Maloney, “How the Iraq War Has Empowered Iran,” Brookings Institution, March 21, 2008, https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/how-the-iraq-war-has-empowered-iran/.
- 49.
Nima Khorrami Assl, “Iraq Makes Sanctions against Iran Ineffective,” The Guardian, January 27, 2012, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jan/27/iraq-sanctions-iran-ineffective.
- 50.
Soner Cagaptay, “Is Turkey Leaving the West,” Foreign Affairs, October 26, 2009, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2009-10-26/turkey-leaving-west.
- 51.
Andrew Rathmell and Kirsten Schulze, “Political Reform in the Gulf: The Case of Qatar,” Middle Eastern Studies 36, no. 4 (October 2000): 54.
- 52.
David B. Roberts, “Qatar and the UAE: Exploring Divergent Responses to the Arab Spring,” Middle East Journal 71, no. 4 (Autumn 2017): 560.
- 53.
Marc Lynch, “Obama and the Middle East: Rightsizing the U.S. Role,” Foreign Affairs 94, no. 5 (September 2015): 18.
- 54.
Mohamed Kamal, “Obama Wearing a Turban (in Arabic),” Al-Masry Al-Youm, August 25, 2013, https://ww.almasryalyoum.com/news/details/199659.
- 55.
Fawaz A. Gerges, “The Obama Approach to the Middle East: The End of America’s Moment?” International Affairs 89 (March 2013): 316–17, https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2346.12019.
- 56.
James T. Quinlivan, “Coup-Proofing: Its Practice and Consequences in the Middle East,” International Security 24, no. 2 (Fall 1999): 131–65.
- 57.
Uzi Rabi, Back to the Future, the Middle East in the Shadow of the Arab Spring (Tel-Aviv: Resling, 2016), 15–17, 41–45.
- 58.
Akbarzadeh, “Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council Sheikhdoms,” 96; remarkably Sunni Islamists had earlier celebrated the triumph of Khomeini’s overthrow of the Shah.
- 59.
Marwa Maziad, “The Turkish Burden: The Cost of the Turkey-Qatar Alliance and Hard Power Projection into Qatar’s Foreign Policy,” in The Arab Gulf States and The West: Perceptions and Realities—Opportunities and Perils, ed. Dania Koleilat Khatib and Marwa Maziad (London: Routledge, 2019), 114.
- 60.
Md Muddassir Quamar, “The Turkish Military Base in Doha: A Step towards Gaining ‘Strategic Depth’ in the Middle East?” Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses Comment, September 26, 2017, https://idsa.in/idsacomments/the-turkish-military-base-in-doha_mmquamar_260917.
- 61.
Gabriel Ben-Dor, “Overview: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Face a Region in Flux,” in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf and the New Regional Landscape, ed. Joshua Teitelbaum (Ramat Gan: The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, 2017), 22, https://besacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/MSPS133.pdf.
- 62.
Khoury, “The Arab Cold War Revisited.”
- 63.
See Hamad H. Albloshi, “Kuwait’s Careful Balancing Act with Iran, Saudi Arabia,” Al-Monitor, May 24, 2018, https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/05/iran-jcpoa-nuclear-deal-gcc-saudi-kuwait-reaction-division.html; Dina Esfandiary and Ariane M. Tabatabai, “Scent of an Oman: The Sultanate Moves toward the Saudis,” Foreign Affairs, January 17, 2017, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/persian-gulf/2017-01-17/scent-oman.
- 64.
Lynch, “The New Arab Order.”
- 65.
For the PLO, and Hamas, see e.g., Lisa Watanabe, “Gulf States’ Engagement in North Africa: The Role of Foreign Aid,” in The Small Gulf States: Foreign and Security Policies before and after the Arab Spring, ed. Jean-Marc Rickli and Khalid S. Almezaini (London: Routledge, 2017), 175–77; Philipp O. Amour, “Hamas-PLO/Fatah Reconciliation and Rapprochement within the Unfolding Regional Order in the Middle East since 2010: Neorealist and Neoclassical Realist Perspectives,” Journal of Social Sciences of Mus Alparslan University 6, no. 5 (April 13, 2018): 621–31, https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.384773.
- 66.
Mehran Kamrava, “The Arab Spring and the Saudi-Led Counterrevolution,” Orbis 56, no. 1 (2012): 96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbis.2011.10.011.
- 67.
Goldberg, “Saudi Crown Prince.”
- 68.
Michael Eisenstadt, “Iran after Sanctions: Military Procurement and Force-Structure Decisions” (The International Institute for Strategic Studies [IISS], December 2017), 1–7, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/opeds/Eisenstadt20171219-IISS-chapter.pdf.
- 69.
Michael Rubin, “Why Is Iran Trying to Sabotage Morocco?” Washington Examiner, May 2, 2018, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/israel-isnt-the-only-country-iran-is-meddling-with.
- 70.
“Qatar Admits That It Is against the Arab Coalition in Yemen,” Al Arabiya, July 19, 2017, http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2017/07/19/Qatar-admits-that-it-is-against-the-Arab-coalition-in-Yemen.html.
- 71.
Buzan and Waever, Regions and Powers, 192–93.
- 72.
Philipp O. Amour, “Israel, the Arab Spring, and the Unfolding Regional Order in the Middle East: A Strategic Assessment,” British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 44, no. 3 (July 3, 2017): 293–309, https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2016.1185696.
- 73.
Gamal Abul Hassan, “After 25 Years of Oslo (in Arabic),” Almasry Alyoum, September 16, 2018, https://www.almasryalyoum.com/news/details/1323041.
- 74.
Bill, “Resurgent Islam in the Persian Gulf.”
- 75.
Amr Yossef, “Israel and Post-Mubarak Egypt: Perils of Historical Analogy,” Digest of Middle East Studies 21, no. 1 (March 2012): 49–68.
- 76.
Mark Lander, “Obama Cites Poland and Model for Arab Shift,” New York Times, May 28, 2011, https://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/29/world/europe/29prexy.html.
- 77.
Kurt Weyland, “The Arab Spring: Why the Surprising Similarities with the Revolutionary Wave of 1848,” Perspectives on Politics 10, no. 4 (2012): 917–34, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592712002873.
- 78.
Henry E. Hale, “Regime Change Cascades: What We Have Learned from the 1848 Revolutions to the 2011 Arab Uprisings,” Annual Review of Political Science 16, no. 1 (May 2013): 331–53, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-212204.
- 79.
Jonathan Sperber, The European Revolutions, 1848–1851 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994).
- 80.
I. W. Roberts, “Russia in 1848 and 1849,” in Encyclopedia of Revolutions of 1848, accessed August 29, 2019, https://www.ohio.edu/chastain/rz/russia.htm.
- 81.
Isaiah Berlin, “Russia and 1848,” The Slavonic and East European Review 26, no. 67 (April 1948): 341–60.
- 82.
Philipp O. Amour, “The Arab Spring Movement: The Failed Revolution. Preliminary Theoretical and Empirical Deliberation,” in The Middle East Reloaded: Revolutionary Changes, Power Dynamics, and Regional Rivalries since the Arab Spring, ed. Philipp O. Amour, St. James’s Studies in World Affairs (Washington: Academica Press, 2018), 199–224.
- 83.
Valbjørn and Bank, “The New Arab Cold War,” 13–15.
- 84.
F. Gregory Gause, “Systemic Approaches to Middle East International Relations,” International Studies Review 1, no. 1 (Spring 1999): 25.
- 85.
Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, “After the ‘Middle East’: Turkey and Iran in a New Region,” JETRO-IDE ME-Review 6, no. 3 (2019 [2018]): 2–7.
- 86.
Hossein Aghaie Joobani and Mostafa Mousavipour, “Russia, Turkey, and Iran: Moving towards Strategic Synergy in the Middle East?” Strategic Analysis 39, no. 2 (2015): 148–51, https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2014.1000658.
- 87.
Goldfischer, “The United States and Its Key Gulf Allies,” 77–81.
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The author would like to thank Ian Fletcher, F. Gregory Gause, Marwa Maziad, Gamal Rushdi, as well as the anonymous reviewers for their helpful input and advice.
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Yossef, A. (2020). Gulfization of the Middle East Security Complex: The Arab Spring’s Systemic Change. In: Amour, P. (eds) The Regional Order in the Gulf Region and the Middle East. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45465-4_3
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