Abstract
The forecast of a landslide time-of-failure and alert thresholds assessment are fundamental aspects of landslide risk prevention and mitigation. The problem has been often considered with a ‘site-specific’ approach, allowing to describe the single event with great accuracy, while hindering its automatic application to other cases featuring different properties. A procedure aimed to define a common behaviour between different cases was developed with the purpose of improving the approach to this topic. Starting from displacement data referring to landslides documented in scientific literature, a series of normalized velocity vs time trends was defined. These curves highlighted a common trend in landslides’ evolution towards failure, thus allowing the assessment of general alert thresholds. In this paper, the generalized criterion is applied to other landslides not included within the initial database, in order to validate the proposed methodology and investigate its effectiveness. The process has been applied to these new cases, studying and describing their evolution from the beginning of the monitoring activity to the final collapse of the landslide, thus simulating real-time data collection and elaboration in order to compare the results with the developed criterion.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Bentley SP, Siddle HJ (2000) New Tredegar landslide, Rhymney Valley. In: Landslides and landslide management in South Wales. National Museums & Galleries of Wales, Cardiff
Carey JM (2011) The progressive development and post-failure behaviour of deep-seated landslide complexes. PhD thesis, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/3186/
Carlà T, Farina P, Intrieri E, Botsialas K, Casagli N (2017) On the monitoring and early-warning of brittle slope failures in hard rock masses: examples from an open-pit mine. Eng Geol 228:71–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2017.08.007
Carlà T, Intrieri E, Di Traglia F, Gigli G, Casagli N (2018a) Methods to improve the reliability of time of slope failure predictions and to setup alarm levels based on the inverse velocity method. In: Sassa K et al (eds) Landslide dynamics: ISDR-ICL landslide interactive teaching tools. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57774-6_39
Carlà T, Macciotta R, Hendry M, Martin D, Edwards T, Evans T, Farina P, Intrieri E, Casagli N (2018b) Displacement of a landslides retaining wall and application of an enhanced failure forecasting approach. Landslides 15:489–505. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0887-7
Crosta GB, Agliardi F (2002) How to obtain alert velocity threshold for large rockslides. Phys Chem Earth 27(2002):1557–1565. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1474-7065(02)00177-8
Dick GJ, Eberhardt E, Cabrejo-Liévano AG, Stead D, Rose ND (2015) Development of an early-warning time-of-failure analysis methodology for open-pit mine slopes utilizing ground-based slope stability radar monitoring data. Can Geotech J 52:515–529. https://doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2014-0028
Fukuzono T (1985) A new method for predicting the failure time of a slope. In: Proceedings of the fourth international 51 conference and field workshop on landslides (Tokyo; 1985). Tokyo University Press 1985:145–150
Fukuzono T (1990) Recent studies on time prediction of slope failure. Landslide News 4:9–12
Gigli G, Fanti R, Canuti P, Casagli N (2011) Integration of advanced monitoring and numerical modelling techniques for the complete risk scenario analysis of rockslides the case of Mt. Beni (Florence, Italy). Eng Geol 120:48–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2011.03.017
Intrieri E, Gigli G (2016) Landslide forecasting and factors influencing predictability. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 16:2501–2510. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2501-2016
Intrieri E, Gigli G, Mugnai F, Fanti R, Casagli N (2012) Design and implementation of a landslide early warning system. Eng Geol 147-148(2012):124–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2012.07.017
Intrieri E, Gigli G, Casagli N, Nadim F (2013) Landslide early warning system: toolbox and general concepts. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13(85–90):2013. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-85-2013
Ju NP, Huang J, Huang RQ, He CY, Li YR (2015) A real-time monitoring and early warning system for landslides in Southwest China. J Mt Sci 12(5):1219. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-014-3307-7
Kayesa G (2006) Prediction of slope failure at Letlhakane mine with the Geomos slope monitoring system. In: Proceeding of the international symposium on stability of rock slopes in open pit mining and civil engineering, Cape Town, South Africa, 3–6 April 2006. South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, Johannesburg, pp 605–622
Knox G (1927) Landslides in South Wales Valleys. In: Proceedings of the South Wales Institute of Engineers, 43
Manconi A, Giordan D (2015) Landslide early warning based on failure forecast models: the example of the Mt. de la Saxe rockslide, Northern Italy. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 15:1639–1644. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1639-2015
Mazzanti P, Rocca A, Bozzano F, Cossu R, Floris M (2012) Landslides forecasting analysis by displacement time series derived from satellite InSAR data: preliminary results. In: Proceedings ‘Fringe 2011 Workshop’, Frascati, Italy, 19-23 September 2011 (ESA SP-697, January 2012)
Mazzanti P, Bozzano F, Cipriani I, Prestininzi A (2017) New insights into the temporal prediction of landslides by a terrestrial SAR interferometry case study. Landslides 1:55–68. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-014-0469-x
Michoud C, Bazin S, Blikra LH, Derron MH, Jaboyedoff M (2013) Experiences from site-specific landslide early warning systems. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 2013(13):2659–2673. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2659-2013
Paté-Cornell ME (1986) Warning system in risk management. Risk Anal 6(2):223–234
Petley DN (2004) The evolution of slope failures: mechanisms of rupture propagation. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 4(1):147–152, Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-147-2004
Rose ND, Hungr O (2007) Forecasting potential rock slope failure in open pit mines using the inverse-velocity method. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 44(2):308–320. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2006.07.014
Saito M (1965) Forecasting the time of occurrence of a slope failure. In: Proceedings of the 6th international conference on soil mechanics and foundation engineering, 2, pp 537–539
Saito M (1969) Forecasting time of slope failure by tertiary creep. In: Proceedings of the seventh international conference on soil mechanics foundation engineering, 1, pp 315–318 (Paris)
Segalini A, Valletta A, Carri A (2018) Landslide time-of-failure forecast and alert threshold assessment: a generalized criterion. Eng Geol 245(1):72–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.08.003
Siddle HJ, Moore R, Carey JM, Petley DN (2007) Pre-failure behavior of slope materials and their significance in the progressive failure of landslides. In: Mathie E, McInnes R, Fairbank H, Jakeways J (eds) Landslides and climate change: challenges and solutions. Proceedings of the international conference of landslides and climate change, Ventnor, Isle of Wight. Taylor & Francis, UK, pp 21–24
Stähli M, Sättele M, Huggel C, McArdell BW, Lehmann P, Van Herwijnen A, Berne A, Schleiss M, Ferrari A, Kos A, Or D, Springman SM (2015) Monitoring and prediction in early warning systems for rapid mass movements. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 15:905–917. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015
Terzaghi K (1950) The mechanism of landslides. In: Paige S (ed) Application of geology to engineering practice, Berkey volume. Geological Society of America, Boulder, pp 83–123
Thiebes B, Glade D (2016) Landslide early warning systems – fundamental concepts and innovative applications. In: Aversa S, Cascini L, Picarelli L, Scavia C (eds) Proceedings of the 12th international symposium on landslides, June 12–19, 2016, 3. CRC Press, Napoli, pp 1903–1911. https://doi.org/10.1201/b21520-238
UN-ISDR (2006) Developing early warning systems, a checklist: third international conference on early warning (EWC III), 27–29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany – UNISDR Available online: https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/608. Accessed on 21 Jan 2019
Varnes DJ (1978) Slope movement types and processes. In: Schuster RL, Krizek RJ (eds) Special report 176: landslides: analysis and control. Transportation and Road Research Board, National Academy of Science, Washington, DC, pp 11–33
Voight B (1988) A method for prediction of volcanic eruptions. Nature 332:125–130. https://doi.org/10.1038/332125a0
Voight B (1989) A relation to describe rate-dependent material failure. Science 243:200–203. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.243.4888.200
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Valletta, A., Segalini, A., Carri, A. (2020). Application of a Generalized Criterion: Time-of-Failure Forecast and Alert Thresholds Assessment for Landslides. In: De Maio, M., Tiwari, A. (eds) Applied Geology. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43953-8_17
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43953-8_17
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-43952-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-43953-8
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)