Abstract
Empirical statistical models at regional scale (resolution 600 m) were used to study links between characteristics of winter wheat yield and environmental factors that include climate, soils and topography. The study area of the size 3° by 4° is located in the western part of Oka River basin, Russia. The most strong links were found for the averaged by years addition to yield that is defined as the difference between yield with optimal fertilizers and control with no fertilizers used. The main environmental factor was insolation from southwest. The link with insolation from southwest was positive corresponding to relatively cold conditions of the region. Similar results were obtained for five other crops: perennial grasses, oats, barley, winter rye and annual grasses. A method is suggested to take into account chronological sequence of climatic factors action. Environmental factors explained 74% of variance in addition and 76% when this sequence was taken into account. When insolation increased 5% from its average (i.e., the change was 25 W/m2), yields increased 1.86 times and additions 2.09 times. Using the climatic GISS model E, we calculated a forecast model for the year 2050 for the addition. This model demonstrated generally favourable conditions for winter wheat yields, and addition decreased southward. The role of inexpensive measures of enhancing winter wheat yields in the conditions of varying climate was evaluated and the measures include the selection of field slopes and the selection of existing cultivars. For example, the selection of mostly one of cultivars explained 81% of variance in the addition.
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Shary, P.A., Sharaya, L.S., Rukhovich, O.V. (2020). Model-Based Forecasting Winter Wheat Yields Using Landscape and Climate Data. In: Mirschel, W., Terleev, V., Wenkel, KO. (eds) Landscape Modelling and Decision Support. Innovations in Landscape Research. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37421-1_20
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