Abstract
In this chapter, we consider the process of technological progress presenting one of the options for measuring its speed throughout the entire historical process. We find that the general dynamics of accelerating technological growth over the past 40 thousand years can be described with amazing accuracy (R2 = 0.99) using the following simplest hyperbolic equation: yt = C/t0 − t, where yt is the technological growth rate measured as a number of technological phase transitions per unit of time. Although since 40,000 BP the speed of technological progress tended to generally increase, however, according to the theory of production principles on which we rely, the acceleration of technological progress had noticeable fluctuations. These fluctuations can be explained by the fact that technological development proceeded within the framework of super-long cycles. We show that, within these cycles, the phases of accumulation of basic breakthrough innovations are replaced by phases of rapid growth of improvements in basic innovations and their wide distribution. These fluctuations between cycle phases affect the pattern of acceleration of technological progress. Currently, there are a number of calculations of the point of singularity of the Big History and global evolution, which generally localize the singularity around the first half of the twenty-first century. The point of singularity in our calculations, if we rely only on historical time points, falls on 2018, that is, in principle, it fully fits the results of other studies. There is a fairly reasonable idea of slowing down a number of important social processes (such as demographic development, urbanization), including the speed of technological progress. Indeed, there are already some grounds for talking about signs of a slowdown in progress from the 1960 to 1970s. However, according to the theory of production principles, as already mentioned, there are strong fluctuations in the acceleration of technological progress. We assume that at the moment technological progress is in the fourth—the scientific and cybernetic—production principle. According to this theory, we expect a powerful acceleration of technological progress in the area between the 2030s and the 2070s. In this case, if we take into account the expected time points, the point of singularity, according to our calculations, is estimated to be around 2106. That is, with this method of calculation, we should first expect a new way of acceleration of technological progress, and then, its slowdown in the region of the end of the twenty-first century—the beginning of the 22nd. We also identify the social mechanism for such acceleration and deceleration: in the coming decades, the process of global ageing can cause technological acceleration first and change its direction, and then closer to the end of the present and the beginning of the next century, on the contrary, elderly society can be a brake on scientific-technological progress.
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Notes
- 1.
It is important to note that we do not mean continuous and regular influence but rather a qualitative breakthrough. If after a breakthrough within a more fundamental sphere other spheres do not catch up with it, the development within the former slows down (for details see Grinin 2006a, b, 2007a; Grinin and Grinin 2015a, c, 2016; Grinin and Korotayev 2009).
- 2.
There are different views on the growth function of technological progress: an exponent (Kurzweil 2005), a super-exponent (Nagy et al. 2011), a logistic curve (Ayres 2006), multiple S-curves (Sood and Tellis 2005). Also different types of technologies develop at different speeds and functions, see, for example (Koh and Magee 2006)
- 3.
The cycle of each production revolution looks as follows: the initial innovative phase (emergence of a new revolutionizing production sector)–the modernization phase (diffusion, synthesis and improvement of new technologies)–the final innovative phase (when new technologies acquire their mature characteristics). For more information about a cycle of production revolutions and their structural interconnection with production principles, see Grinin et al. (2017b) (as well as our abovementioned works).
- 4.
- 5.
- 6.
During the last glacial epoch, Würm III. The glacial maximum was observed about 20,000–17,000 BP when temperatures dropped by 5 degrees (Velichko 1989: 13–15). About the technology and archaeological evidence see Jochim 2011b; Shea 2013. For designation of cultures which were not completely or partly affected the end of the glacial age, as, for example for the Levant, North Africa and South-West Asia during the period after the Upper Palaeolithic and before the Neolithic, between approximately 20,000 and 10,000 years BP archaeologists use the term “Epipalaeolithic”, i.e. “Final Palaeolithic”. So it overlaps with the late Upper Palaeolithic and Mesolithic in Europe (Shea 2013). In our periodization the Epipalaeolithic connects with the third–sixth phases.
- 7.
- 8.
The connection between Kondratieff waves and technological systems and/or techno-economic paradigms is discussed in Grinin et al. (2017a).
- 9.
The order of the letters in the acronym does not reflect our understanding of the relative importance of areas of the complex. For example, biotechnologies will be more important than nanotechnologies, let alone additive manufacturing. The order is determined simply by the convenience of pronunciation.
- 10.
In the square brackets we put the names of phase transitions names from our periodization, which correspond with periods by Panov.
- 11.
Kremer notes that “this implication flows naturally from the nonrivalry of technology… The cost of inventing a new technology is independent of the number of people who use it. Thus, holding constant the share of resources devoted to research, an increase in population leads to an increase in technological change” (Kremer 1993: 681).
- 12.
According to other researches labour productivity peaks between the ages of 35 and 54 (Park and Shin 2015:109).
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This chapter is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Programme at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) in 2019 with support by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project No. 17-02-00521).
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Grinin, L., Grinin, A., Korotayev, A.V. (2020). Dynamics of Technological Growth Rate and the Forthcoming Singularity. In: Korotayev, A., LePoire, D. (eds) The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8_14
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