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Multivariate Data Analysis and Machine Learning for Prediction of MCI-to-AD Conversion

  • Conference paper
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GeNeDis 2018

Part of the book series: Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology ((AEMB,volume 1194))

Abstract

There has always been a need for discovering efficient and dependable Alzheimer’s disease (AD) diagnostic biomarkers. Like the majority of diseases, the earlier the diagnosis, the most effective the treatment. (Semi)-automated structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) processing approaches are very popular in AD research. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is considered to be a stage between normal cognitive ageing and dementia. MCI can often be the prodromal stage of AD. Around 10–15% of MCI patients convert to AD per year. In this study, we used three supervised machine learning (ML) techniques to differentiate MCI converters (MCIc) from MCI non-converters (MCInc) and predict their conversion rates from baseline MRI data (cortical thickness (CTH) and hippocampal volume (HCV)). A total of 803 participants from the ADNI cohort were included in this study (188 AD, 107 MCIc, 257 MCInc and 156 healthy controls (HC)). We studied the classification abilities of three different WEKA classifiers (support vector machine (SVM), decision trees (J48) and Naive Bayes (NB)). We built six different classification models, three models based on CTH and three based on HCV (CTH-SVM, CTH-J48, CTH-NB, HCV-SVM, HCV-J48 and HCV-NB). For the classification experiments, we obtained up to 71% sensitivity and up to 56% specificity. The prediction of conversion showed accuracy for up to 84%. The value of certain multivariate models derived from the classification experiments has exhibited robust and effective results in MCIc identification. However, there was a limitation in this study since we could not compare the CTH with the HCV models seeing as the data used originated from different subjects. As future direction, we propose the creation of a model that would combine various features with data originating from the same subjects, thus being a far more reliable and accurate prognostic tool.

Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (adni.loni.usc.edu). As such, the investigators within the ADNI contributed to the design and implementation of ADNI and/or provided data but did not participate in analysis or writing of this report. A complete listing of ADNI investigators can be found at: http://adni.loni.usc.edu/wp-content/uploads/how_to_apply/ADNI_Acknowledgement_List.pdf.

For the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

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Acknowledgments

Data collection and sharing for this project was funded by the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) (National Institutes of Health Grant U01 AG024904) and DOD ADNI (Department of Defense award number W81XWH-12-2-0012). ADNI is funded by the National Institute on Aging, the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, and through generous contributions from the following: AbbVie, Alzheimer’s Association; Alzheimer’s Drug Discovery Foundation; Araclon Biotech; BioClinica, Inc.; Biogen; Bristol-Myers Squibb Company; CereSpir, Inc.; Cogstate; Eisai Inc.; Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Eli Lilly and Company; EuroImmun; F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. and its affiliated company Genentech, Inc.; Fujirebio; GE Healthcare; IXICO Ltd.; Janssen Alzheimer Immunotherapy Research & Development, LLC.; Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical Research & Development LLC.; Lumosity; Lundbeck; Merck & Co., Inc.; Meso Scale Diagnostics, LLC.; NeuroRx Research; Neurotrack Technologies; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation; Pfizer Inc.; Piramal Imaging; Servier; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company; and Transition Therapeutics. The Canadian Institutes of Health Research is providing funds to support ADNI clinical sites in Canada. Private sector contributions are facilitated by the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (www.fnih.org). The grantee organization is the Northern California Institute for Research and Education, and the study is coordinated by the Alzheimer’s Therapeutic Research Institute at the University of Southern California. ADNI data are disseminated by the Laboratory for Neuroimaging at the University of Southern California.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Dementia Prevention, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK

    Konstantina Skolariki, Graciella Muniz Terrera & Samuel Danso

  2. Division of Neuroimaging, Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences and Edinburgh Imaging, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK

    Graciella Muniz Terrera & Samuel Danso

Authors
  1. Konstantina Skolariki
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  2. Graciella Muniz Terrera
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  3. Samuel Danso
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Informatics, Ionian University, Corfu, Greece

    Panayiotis Vlamos

Supplementary Data

Supplementary Data

Table S1 This table shows the percentage of subjects rated as a ‘partial’ fail in the eight most common regions
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Methods

Data used in the preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (adni.loni.usc.edu). The ADNI was launched in 2003 as a public-private partnership, led by Principal Investigator Michael W. Weiner, MD. The primary goal of ADNI has been to test whether serial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), positron emission tomography (PET), other biological markers and clinical and neuropsychological assessment can be combined to measure the progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and early Alzheimer’s disease (AD).

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Skolariki, K., Terrera, G.M., Danso, S. (2020). Multivariate Data Analysis and Machine Learning for Prediction of MCI-to-AD Conversion. In: Vlamos, P. (eds) GeNeDis 2018. Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology, vol 1194. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32622-7_8

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