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Inflation: Failures of Inflation Targeting—A European Perspective

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Frontiers of Heterodox Macroeconomics

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Abstract

Monetary policy became the major tool of economic policy to counteract the financial crisis of 2008/2009. The underlying macroeconomic consensus is that inflation rates of 2% are consistent with a stable rise of economic growth. While most central banks follow this guideline, which is widely supported by New Classical and New Consensus Macroeconomists, the impacts on asset price bubbles and uneven wealth distribution, as well fiscal impacts are neglected. Macroeconomic stability is not an outcome of inflation targeting. The paper firstly revises the theoretical background of inflation targeting and explains its theoretical shortcomings from a Post-Keynesian perspective. Secondly, the effects on wealth distribution and asset prices are discussed from a European perspective for the period of 2008/2009 to 2018. An alternative view on monetary policy is presented, which critically discusses the necessary framework under which tools of inflation targeting might work to stabilize the economy and develop a respective policy mix.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Especially in empirical studies Member States of the Euro Area are also addressed as non-targeting economies, when no distinction between explicit and implicit targeters is applied (see among others Ismailov et al. 2016; Johnson 2002).

  2. 2.

    By defining easy money as period of expansionary monetary policy after the financial crisis of 2008, this chapter follows the distinction of periods of monetary policy of Vítor Constâncio former Vice president of the ECB (2018). This period is replaced by ultra-low inflation and Quantitative Easing from 2014 to 2018.

  3. 3.

    Palley (2007, p. 62), articulates in this respect, five critical factors affecting the determination of monetary policy, taking a closer look at the definition of uncertainty and the distribution of information. Both factors are subsumed within the broad definition of the institutional and structural set-up, which covers, for example, the demand for credibility and accountability of the monetary policy.

  4. 4.

    As OECD data shows (n.d.-b) tax to GDP ratio decreased sharply in 2015—from 28.4 to 23.1%—compared to an OECD average of above 30%.

  5. 5.

    For more detail regarding the PSPP see Znidar (2015).

  6. 6.

    Available at: www.ecb.int.

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  1. University of Applied Sciences, BFI Vienna, Vienna, Austria

    Elisabeth Springler

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  1. Elisabeth Springler
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  1. Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

    Philip Arestis

  2. University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

    Malcolm Sawyer

Appendix

Appendix

See Table 1, Figs. 5 and 6.

Table 1 Inflations targeting countries
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Fig. 5
figure 5

(Source OeNB [n.d.-c])

Long-term government bond yields

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Fig. 6
figure 6

(Source Eurostat 2016)

Distribution of population by tenure status—2016

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Springler, E. (2019). Inflation: Failures of Inflation Targeting—A European Perspective. In: Arestis, P., Sawyer, M. (eds) Frontiers of Heterodox Macroeconomics. International Papers in Political Economy. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23929-9_5

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