Small Satellite Constellations Versus Geosynchronous Satellites for Fixed Satellite Services and Network Services

Abstract

For 50 years GEO satellite systems have dominated the field of satellite communications, and low-cost satellite dishes optimized to work to satellites in the Clarke orbit have dramatically spread across the world. So-called VSATs (very small aperture terminals) have grown by the millions around the globe to provide direct broadcast satellite TV and radio services to homes, offices, condos, and apartments. This type of satellite service has particularly serve to provide connectivity to rural and remote areas of the world. These GEO systems have also support global data networking known as enterprise networks for many large companies. Of all the application satellites providing commercial services to the world well, over 90% of the total revenues come from GEO satellites.

But the world of commercial satellite services seems to be in flux. The birth of “NewSpace” technologies has allowed the faster and more cost-efficient manufacture and reliability testing of small satellites. The new lower-cost launchers have also allowed large constellations of these small satellites to be deployed in lower orbit with greater effectiveness. Finally new types of Earth stations have been developed that can electronically track fast-moving satellites. The new capabilities when combined have allowed the new constellations to function with greater effectiveness. These “NewSpace” systems have now completed the trifecta of new capabilities (i.e., lower cost and more capable small sats, lower-cost launch services, and new electronic-tracking ground systems). All are needed for these new systems to work.

There is concern about just how many of these new small satellite constellations in lower orbit can be cost-effectively and viably deployed in a short period of time. Is there sufficient market to sustain the current plans to launch dozens of these new systems that comprise a total of over 20,000 small satellites? Thus this rapid change to go from about 2000 operational satellites as of 2019 to perhaps over 20,000 satellites as of 2024 represents a series of concerns. Thus there are concerns about space situational awareness (SSA) and tracking, about space traffic management (STM), about market viability, and about the long-term sustainability of space and the near-Earth orbit. This article focuses mainly on the global commercial space market and how quickly it will change and who the winners and losers might be as the world of commercial satellite services undergoes a major transition.

Certainly the so-called NewSpace capabilities have come together quickly – especially in the past 5 years. The aerospace world has been confronted by innovation that has burst forth from Silicon Valley and the World of Google, computer systems, and networking systems. We have seen new ways of thinking, new business models, and new ways of raising capital. We have certainly seen much more rapid evolution of design and a willingness to innovate and provide space services and systems in total new ways. This has started to impact the conventional way of doing business that has ruled the world of aerospace for the past 60–70 years that was largely born of research processes and ways to undertake aerospace innovation born out of World War II.

The new entrepreneurially fueled aerospace initiatives have challenged the models of innovation that have come from the traditional aerospace world and R&D concepts born of the so-called military-industrial complex. New initiatives such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, Planet, O3b, OneWeb, and new enterprise that are designing and building small satellites and ground antenna systems are accordingly opening up new opportunities in the satellite world. Some have questioned whether GEO satellites can survive this new challenge as many new operators have emerged seeking to deploy these lower orbit systems that are well suited for IP-based networking and could help deploy new 5G broadband networks and extended Internet-related services in the least served regions of the world. Others have suggested that the real contest might be those deploying new high-throughput satellites that are ten to a hundred times more capable and cost-effective than those using much more conventional satellite system design that are not cost-competitive.

Another complicating part of this analysis is that a number of the established satellite communications service providers such as SES and Telesat plus others now seem posed to move to provide both GEO satellite and new small satellite constellations in the future. Many of the traditional providers of launch services such as Arianespace and United Launch Alliance have also embraced significant change in how they design and build new launch vehicles. Many well-established companies that have been around for a long time are adjusting to the new technology and finding new ways to compete in the changing market conditions. This article seeks to look at the markets that GEO, MEO, and LEO satellites might serve in the future and to examine whether both types of services and satellite technology might continue to serve different market demands and find new synergies in the years ahead. Further, some consideration will be given to how changes in the launch services industries and those that are designing and building ground antenna systems will affect the future of satellite communication markets in the coming years. The one thing that is clear is that rapid changes to the world of commercial satellite services will come at an ever faster pace. This means more innovation, lower costs and prices for satellite services, and a fairly chaotic market for at least a decade as rapid progress and technological innovation lead to both lower costs and more market failures.