Abstract
This chapter argues that explanations of the outcome of the potentially landmark election of 2018 require reference to general factors, including but going beyond Italy, as well as to factors specific to that country. And, as in the case of any election, the outcome (conceived as the shift in the distribution of parliamentary seats and therefore of power among parties) can be analysed by reference to the operation of three sets of factors: those that will explain the specific configuration of the parties and party coalitions among which voters are called upon to make their choices to begin with; the social and political events and processes driving their choices; the rules governing the translation of given vote distributions into given seat distributions. While none of the three can be analysed in isolation, in describing the long-term developments associated with each of them, the chapter provides an interpretation of the outcome that is organised in terms of these three categories.
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Notes
- 1.
For the Chamber of Deputies parties had to achieve at least four percent of the valid vote nationally if they were running independently or as part of a coalition achieving less than ten percent, or else two percent if running as part of a coalition with more than ten percent. Seats were also available to the best-performing party below the two-percent threshold, and for the purposes of allocating the majority premium, the votes of all parties running as part of a given coalition would count, not just those of parties overcoming the thresholds.
- 2.
On the grounds that the first was not linked to the achievement of any minimum proportion of the vote and the second deprived the voter of the right to express a preference among candidates.
- 3.
‘Compatibility’, meaning laws providing reasonable certainty that a majority in one chamber will also be a majority in the other, is a requirement of symmetric bicameralism. The Italicum, which came into force on 1 July 2016, had applied to the Chamber only (on the assumption that December’s referendum would result in popular endorsement for a package of constitutional reforms that included abolishing symmetrical bicameralism by limiting the Senate’s legislative powers and by depriving it of the power to remove governments from office through the confidence vote). It had envisaged a run-off ballot between the two most voted lists in the event that none achieved 40% of the vote nationally, with the winner being assigned a majority premium of 340 (or 54%) of the 630 seats, and the losers, provided they had won at least 3%, sharing 278. (The remaining 12 seats were assigned to the overseas constituency for Italians resident abroad.)
- 4.
The Court’s judgement retained the majority premium provided for by the Italicum but abolished the run-off ballot and reduced the power of party leaders who would no longer be able to decide which of the colleges to represent in the event that they were elected in more than one of them. This, in future, would be decided by drawing lots.
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Newell, J.L. (2019). The Political Context 2013–2018. In: Ceccarini, L., Newell, J. (eds) The Italian General Election of 2018. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-13617-8_2
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