Abstract
Chemical risk assessment for human health requires a multidisciplinary approach through four steps: hazard identification and characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Hazard identification and characterization aim to identify the metabolism and elimination of the chemical (toxicokinetics) and the toxicological dose–response (toxicodynamics) and to derive a health-based guidance value for safe levels of exposure. Exposure assessment estimates human exposure as the product of the amount of the chemical in the matrix consumed and the consumption itself. Finally, risk characterization evaluates the risk of the exposure to human health by comparing the latter to with the health-based guidance value. Recently, many research efforts in computational toxicology have been put together to characterize population variability and uncertainty in each of the steps of risk assessment to move towards more quantitative and transparent risk assessment. This chapter focuses specifically on modeling population variability and effects for each step of risk assessment in order to provide an overview of the statistical and computational tools available to toxicologists and risk assessors. Three examples are given to illustrate the applicability of those tools: derivation of pathway-related uncertainty factors based on population variability, exposure to dioxins, dose–response modeling of cadmium.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
European Commission (EC) (2002) Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 of the european parliament and of the council laying down the general principles and requirements of food law, establishing the European Food Safety Authority and laying down procedures in matters of food safety. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2002:031:0001:0024:EN:PDF
WHO (2009) Principles and methods for the risk assessment of chemicals in food, Environmental health criteria 240. http://www.who.int/foodsafety/chem/principles/en/index1.html
Svendsen C, Ragas AM, Dorne JLCM (2008) Contaminants in organic and conventional food: the missing link between contaminant levels and health effects. Book comparing organic vs non-organic food at the nutritional, microbiological and toxicological level. In: Givens DI et al (eds) Health benefits of organic foods: effects of the environment. Chapter 6, vol 119. CABI, Wallingford
Dorne JLCM, Bordajandi LR, Amzal B, Ferrari P, Verger P (2009) Combining analytical techniques, exspoure assessment and biological effects for risk assessment of chemicals in food. Trends Anal Chem 2009(28):695
Kroes R, Müller D, Lambe J, Löwik MR, van Klaveren J, Kleiner J, Massey R, Mayer S, Urieta I, Verger P, Visconti A (2002) Assessment of intake from the diet. Food Chem Toxicol 40(2–3):327–385
Dorne JCM (2010) Metabolism, variability and risk assessment. Toxicology 268(3):156–164
EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) (2005) Opinion of the Scientific Committee on a request from EFSA related to a harmonised approach for risk assessment of substances which are both genotoxic and carcinogenic. EFSA J 282:1–31. http://www.efsa.europa.eu/EFSA/Scientific_Opinion/sc_op_ej282_gentox_en3.pdf
FAO/WHO (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations/World Health Organization) (2006) Safety evaluation of certain contaminants in food. Prepared by the Sixty-fourth meeting of the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA). FAO Food Nutr Pap 82:1–778
EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) (2007) Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food chain on a request from the European Commission on ethyl carbamate and hydrocyanic acid in food and beverages. EFSA J 551:1–44. :http://www.efsa.europa.eu/cs/BlobServer/Scientific_Opinion/Contam_ej551_ethyl_carbamate_en_rev.1.pdf?ssbinary=true
EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) (2008) Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain on a request from the European Commission on Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Food. EFSA J 724:1–114. http://www.efsa.europa.eu/cs/BlobServer/Scientific_Opinion/contam_ej_724_PAHs_en,1.pdf?ssbinary=true
EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) (2009) Scientific opinion on arsenic in food. EFSA J 7(10):1051. http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/doc/1351.pdf
JMPR (Joint FAO/WHO Meetings on Pesticide Residues) (2002) Report of the JMPR, FAO Plant Production and Protection Paper, 172, 4. FAO, Rome
EFSA (2009) Scientific opinion on marine biotoxins in shellfish—Palytoxin group. EFSA J 7(12):1293. http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/doc/1393.pdf
EFSA (2009) Potential risks for public health due to the presence of nicotine in wild mushrooms. EFSA J RN-286:2–47. http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/doc/286r.pdf
Renwick AG, Lazarus NR (1998) Human variability and noncancer risk assessment—an analysis of the default uncertainty factor. Regul Toxicol Pharmacol 27:3–20
WHO (2005) International Programme on Chemical Safety: chemical-specific adjustment. Factors for interspecies differences and human variability: guidance document for use of data in dose/concentration response assessment. World Health Organization, Geneva. http://www.who.int/ipcs/methods/harmonization/areas/uncertainty/en/index.html
Amzal B, Julin B, Vahter M, Johanson G, Wolk A, Åkesson A (2009) Population toxicokinetic modeling of cadmium for health risk assessment. Environ Health Perspect 117(8):1293–1301
EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) (2009) Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain on a request from the European Commission on cadmium in food. EFSA J 980:1–139. http://www.efsa.europa.eu/cs/BlobServer/Scientific_Opinion/contam_op_ej980_cadmium_en_rev.1.pdf?ssbinary=true
Dorne JLCM, Walton K, Renwick AG (2005) Human variability in xenobiotic metabolism and pathway-related uncertainty factors for chemical risk assessment: a review. Food Chem Toxicol 43:203–216
Gerlowski LE, Jain RK (1983) Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling: principles and applications. J Pharm Sci 72:1103–1127
Bois F, Jamei M, Clewell HJ (2010) PBPK modelling of inter-individual variability in the pharmacokinetics of environmental chemicals. Toxicology 278:256–267
Gibaldi M, Perrier D (1982) Pharmacokinetics, 2nd edn, revised and expanded ed. Marcel Dekker, New York
Jamei M, Marciniak S, Feng KR, Barnett A, Tucker G, Rostami-Hodjegan A (2009) The Simcyp population-based ADME simulator. Expert Opin Drug Metab Toxicol 5:211–223
Bouvier d’Yvoire M, Prieto P, Blaauboer BJ, Bois FY, Boobis A, Brochot C, Coecke S, Freidig A, Gundert-Remy U, Hartung T, Jacobs MN, Lavé T, Leahy DE, Lennernäs H, Loizou GD, Meek B, Pease C, Rowland M, Spendiff M, Yang J, Zeilmaker M (2007) Physiologically-based kinetic modelling (PBK modelling): meeting the 3Rs agenda—the report and recommendations of ECVAM Workshop 63a. Altern Lab Anim 35:661–671
Edginton AN, Schmitt W, Willmann S (2006) Development and evaluation of a generic physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for children. Clin Pharmacokinet 45:1013–1034
Luecke RH, Pearce BA, Wosilait WD, Slikker W, Young JF (2007) Postnatal growth considerations for PBPK modeling. J Toxicol Environ Health A 70:1027–1037
Jones HM, Gardner IB, Watson KJ (2009) Modelling and PBPK simulation in drug discovery. AAPS J 11:155–166
Allen BC, Hack CE, Clewell HJ (2007) Use of Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis with a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model of methylmercury to estimate exposures in US women of childbearing age. Risk Anal 27:947–959
Lorber M (2008) Exposure of Americans to polybrominated diphenyl ethers. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 18(1):2–19
Fromme H, Korner W et al (2009) Human exposure to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE), as evidenced by data from a duplicate diet study, indoor air, house dust, and biomonitoring in Germany. Environ Int 35(8):1125–1135
US-EPA (2003) Exposure and human health reassessment of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and related compounds National Academy Sciences (NAS) review draft. Part III. EPA, Washington, DC
Pinsky PF, Lorber MN (1998) A model to evaluate past exposure to 2,3,7,8-TCDD. J Expo Anal Environ Epidemiol 8(2):187–206
Smith JC, Farris FF (1996) Methyl mercury pharmacokinetics in man: a reevaluation. Toxicol Appl Pharmacol 137(2):245–252
Albert I, Villeret G et al (2010) Integrating variability in half-lives and dietary intakes to predict mercury concentration in hair. Regul Toxicol Pharmacol 58(3):482–489
Delyon B, Lavielle M, Moulines E (1999) Convergence of a stochastic approximation version of the EM algorithm. Ann Stat 27(1):94–128
Rowland M, Benet LZ, Graham GG (1973) Clearance concepts in pharmacokinetics. J Pharmacokinet Biopharm 1:123–136
Shuey DL, Lau C, Logsdon TR, Zucker RM, Elstein KH, Narotsky MG, Setzer RW, Kavlock RJ, Rogers JM (1994) Biologically based dose-response modeling in developmental toxicology: biochemical and cellular sequelae of 5-fluorouracil exposure in the developing rat. Toxicol Appl Pharmacol 126(1):129–144
Crump KS, Chen C, Chiu WA, Louis TA, Portier CJ et al (2010) What role for biologically based dose–response models in estimating low-dose risk? Environ Health Perspect 118(5)
Crump KS (1984) A new method for determining allowable daily intakes. Fundam Appl Toxicol 4:854–871
Budtz-Jørgensen E, Keiding N, Grandjean P (2001) Benchmark dose calculation from epidemiological data. Biometrics 57:698–706
Sand S et al (2008) The current state of knowledge on the use of the benchmark dose concept in risk assessment. J Appl Toxicol 28(4):405–421
Crump KS (2002) Critical issues in benchmark calculations from continuous data. Crit Rev Toxicol 32:133–153
Suwazono Y et al (2006) Benchmark dose for cadmium-induced renal effects in humans. Environ Health Perspect 114(7):1072–1076
Ryan L (2008) Combining data from multiple sources, with applications to environmental risk assessment. Stat Med 27:698–710
Wheeler MW, Bailer AJ (2007) Properties of model-averaged BMDLs: a study of model averaging in dichotomous response risk estimation. Risk Anal 27:659–670
Morales KH, Ibrahim JG, Chen CJ, Ryan LM (2006) Bayesian model averaging with applications to benchmark dose estimation for arsenic in drinking water. J Am Stat Assoc 101(473):9–17
EC (2004) European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances 2.0 (EUSES 2.0). Prepared for the European Chemicals Bureau by the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands (RIVM Report no. 601900005). Available via the European Chemicals Bureau. http://ecb.jrc.it
Bertail P, Clémençon S et al (2010) Statistical analysis of a dynamic model for dietary contaminant exposure. J Biol Dyn 4(2):212–234
Verger P, Tressou J, Clémençon S (2007) Integration of time as a description parameter in risk characterisation: application to methyl mercury. Regul Toxicol Pharmacol 49(1):25–30
Tressou J, Leblanc JCh, Feinberg M, Bertail P (2004) Statistical methodology to evaluate food exposure to a contaminant and influence of sanitary limits: application to ochratoxin A. Regul Toxicol Pharmacol 40(3):252–263
Van den Berg M, Birnbaum L et al (1998) Toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) for PCBs, PCDDs, PCDFs for humans and wildlife. Environ Health Perspect 106:775–792
Thuresson, Höglund et al (2000) In: Medicine and health policy. New York: Marcel Dekker
AFSSA (2009) Etude individuelle Nationale des consommations Alimentaires 2 (INCA 2) (2006-2007), Rapport AFSSA, 228p, http://www.anses.fr/Documents/PASER-Ra-INCA2.pdf
EFSA (2010) Application of systematic review methodology to food and feed safety assessments to support decision making. EFSA J 8(6):1637. http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/doc/1637.pdf
Marvier M, McCreedy C, Regetz J, Kareiva P (2007) A meta-analysis of effects of Bt cotton and maize on nontarget invertebrates. Science 316(5830):1475–1477
Greenland S, Robins J (1994) Invited commentary: ecologic studies—biases, misconceptions, and counterexamples. Am J Epidemiol 139:747–60
Terrin N, Schmidt CH, Lau J, Olkin I (2003) Adjusting for publication bias in the presence of heterogeneity. Stat Med 22:2113–2212
Stangl D, Berry DA (eds) Meta-analysis
Higgins JP, Thompson SG, Deeks JJ, Altman DG (2003) Measuring inconsistency in meta-analyses. BMJ 327:557–560
Egger M et al (2001) Systematic reviews in health care. BMJ books, London
Egger M, Smith GD, Schneider M, Minder C (1997) Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test. BMJ 315:629–634
Biro G, Hulshof K, Ovesen L, Amorim Cruz JA (2002) Selection of methodology to assess food intake. Eur J Clin Nutr 56(Suppl 2):S25–S32. doi:10.1038/sj/ejcn/1601426
Verger P, Ireland J, Møller A, Abravicius JA, De Henauw S, Naska A (2002) Improvement of comparability of dietary intake assessment using currently available individual food consumption surveys. Eur J Clin Nutr 56(Suppl 2):S1–S7. doi:10.1038/sj/ejcn/1601425
Wirfält E, Hedblad B, Gullberg B, Mattisson I, AndrénC RU, Janzon L, Berglund G (2001) Food patterns and components of the metabolic syndrome in men and women: A cross-sectional study within the Malmö diet and cancer cohort. Am J Epidemiol 154(12):1150–1159
Zetlaoui M, Feinberg M, Verger P, Clémencon S (2011) Extraction of food consumption systems by non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) for the assessment of food choices. Biometrics (in press). http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/48/47/94/PDF/NMF_food.pdf
EFSA (2010) European Food Safety Authority; management of left-censored data in dietary exposure assessment of chemical substances. EFSA J 8(3):1557. http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/doc/1557.pdf
Helsel DR (2005) Nondetects and data analysis. Wiley, New York
Kennedy MC, Roelofs VJ et al (2011) A hierarchical Bayesian model for extreme pesticide residues. Food Chem Toxicol 49(1):222–232
Tressou J, Bertail P et al (2003) 709 Evaluation of food risk exposure using extreme value theory-application to heavy metals for sea products consumers. Toxicol Lett 144(Supplement 1):s190
WHO (2009) Principles for modelling dose-response for the risk assessment of chemicals. Environmental Health Criteria. http://www.who.int/tipcs/methods/harmonization/ dose_response/en/
Spilke J, Piepho HP, Hu X (2005) A simulation study on tests of hypotheses and confidence intervals for fixed effects in mixed models for blocked experiments with missing data. J Agric Biol Environ Stat 10:374–389
Spiegelhalter DJ, Best NG et al (2002) Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. J R Stat Soc Series B Stat Methodol 64:583–640
Dorne JLCM, Walton K, Renwick AG (2001) Uncertainty factors for chemical risk assessment: human variability in the pharmacokinetics of CYP1A2 probe substrates. Food Chem Toxicol 39:681–696
Dorne JLCM, Walton K, Slob W, Renwick AG (2002) Human variability in polymorphic CYP2D6 metabolism: is the kinetic default uncertainty factor adequate? Food Chem Toxicol 40:1633–1656
Dorne JLCM, Renwick AG (2005) The refinement of uncertainty/safety factors in risk assessment by the incorporation of data on toxicokinetic variability in humans. Toxicol Sci 86:20–26
Dorne JLCM, Walton K, Renwick AG (2003) Human variability in CYP3A4 metabolism and CYP3A4-related uncertainty factors for risk assessment. Food Chem Toxicol 41:201–224
Dorne JLCM, Walton K, Renwick AG (2003) Polymorphic CYP2C19 and N-acetylation: human variability in kinetics and pathway-related uncertainty factors. Food Chem Toxicol 41:225–245
Kjellström T (1971) A mathematical model for the accumulation of cadmium in human kidney cortex. Nord Hyg Tidskr 52:111–119
Sutton AJ, Higgins JPT (2008) Recent developments in meta-analysis. Stat Med 27:625–650
Berry D, Strangl DK (eds) (2001) Meta-analysis in medicine and health policy. Biostatistics, New York
Morales KH, Ryan LM (2005) Benchmark dose estimation based on epidemiologic cohort data. Environmetrics 16:435–447
Lunn DJ, Thomas A, Best N, Spiegelhalter D (2000) WinBUGS—a Bayesian modelling framework: concepts, structure and extensibility. Stat Comput 10:325–337
EFSA (2011) Comparison of the approaches taken by EFSA and JECFA to establish a HBGV for cadmium. http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/doc/2006.pdf.
Suwazono Y, Nogawa K, Uetani M et al (2011) Application of hybrid approach for estimating the benchmark dose of urinary cadmium for adverse renal effects in the general population of Japan. J Appl Toxicol 31(1):89–93
Tard A, Gallotti S, Leblanc JC, Volatier JL (2007) Dioxins, furans and dioxin-like PCBs: occurrence in food and dietary intake in France. Food Addit Contam 24(9):1007–1017
Milbrath MO, Wenger Y, Chang CW, Emond C, Garabrant D, Gillespie BW, Jolliet O (2009) Apparent half-lives of dioxins, furans, and polychlorinated biphenyls as a function of age, body fat, smoking status, and breast-feeding. Environ Health Perspect 117(3):417–425
Gray LE, Ostby JS et al (1997) A dose-response analysis of the reproductive effects of a single gestational dose of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin in male Long Evans Hooded rat offspring. Toxicol Appl Pharmacol 146(11–20)
Bokkers, B. G. H., M. J. Zeilmaker, et al. (2009). RIVM report on framework and integration methods. The application of animal toxicity data in risk-benefit analysis: 2,3,7,8-TCDD as an example.
Bernillon P, Bois FY (2000) Statistical issues in toxicokinetic modeling: a Bayesian perspective. Environ Health Perspect 108(Suppl 5):883–893
Yan L, Sheihk-Bahaei S, Park S, Ropella GE, Hunt CA (2008) Predictions of hepatic disposition properties using a mechanistically realistic, physiologically based model. Drug Metab Dispos 36(4):759–768
Lerapetritou MG, Georgopoulos PG, Roth CM, Androulakis LP (2009) Tissue-level modeling of xenobiotic metabolism in liver: an emerging tool for enabling clinical translational research. Clin Transl Sci 2(3):228–237
McDonald TA (2005) Polybrominated diphenylether levels among United States residents: daily intake and risk of harm to the developing brain and reproductive organs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 1(4):343–354
Van der Molen GW, Kooijman SALM et al (1996) A generic toxicokinetic model for persistent lipophilic compounds in humans: an application to TCDD. Fundam Appl Toxicol 31(1):83–94
Verner MA, Ayotte P et al (2009) A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for the assessment of infant exposure to persistent organic pollutants in epidemiologic studies. Environ Health Perspect 117(3):481–487
Lu C, Holbrook CM et al (2010) The implications of using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for pesticide risk assessment. Environ Health Perspect 118(1):125–130
Acknowledgments
The views reflected in this review are the authors’ only and do not reflect the views of the European Food Safety Authority, the Technological university of Compiegne, the French Agency for Food, Environment, and Occupational Health Safety, the French National Institute of Agronomical Research (INRA), or the World Health organization.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
About this protocol
Cite this protocol
Dorne, J.L., Amzal, B., Bois, F., Crépet, A., Tressou, J., Verger, P. (2012). Population Effects and Variability. In: Reisfeld, B., Mayeno, A. (eds) Computational Toxicology. Methods in Molecular Biology, vol 929. Humana Press, Totowa, NJ. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-62703-050-2_20
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-62703-050-2_20
Published:
Publisher Name: Humana Press, Totowa, NJ
Print ISBN: 978-1-62703-049-6
Online ISBN: 978-1-62703-050-2
eBook Packages: Springer Protocols