Skip to main content

Constructing and Evaluating an Autoregressive House Price Index

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Topics in Applied Statistics

Part of the book series: Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics ((PROMS,volume 55))

Abstract

We examine house price indices, focusing on an S&P/Case-Shiller-based index and an autoregressive method. Issues including the effect of gap time on sales and the use of hedonic information are addressed. Furthermore, predictive ability is incorporated as a quantitative metric into the analysis using data from home sales in Columbus, Ohio. When comparing the two indices, the autoregressive method is found to have the best predictive capabilities while accounting for changes in the market due to both single and repeat sales homes in a statistical model.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Bailey, M.J., Muth, R.F. and Nourse, H.O. (1963). A regression method for real estate price index construction. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 58 933–942.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Calhoun, C. (1996). OFHEO house price indices: HPI technical description. Available at http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/896/hpi_tech.pdf.

  3. Cannaday, R.E., Munneke, H.J. and Yang, T.T. (2005). A multivariate repeat-sales model for estimating house price indices. J. Urban Econ. 57 320–342.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Case, B., Pollakowski, H.O. andWachter, S.M. (1991). On choosing among house price index methodologies. AREUEA J. 19 286–307.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Case, B. and Quigley, J.M. (1991). The dynamics of real estate prices. Rev. Econ. Statist.73 50–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Case, K.E. and Shiller, R.J. (1987). Prices of single-family homes since 1970: New indices for four cities. N. Engl. Econ. Rev. Sept./Oct. 45–56.

    Google Scholar 

  7. Case, K.E. and Shiller, R.J. (1989). The efficiency of the market for single family homes. Amer. Econ. Rev. 79 125–137.

    Google Scholar 

  8. Chau, K.W., Wong, S.K. and Yiu, C.Y. (2005). Adjusting for non-linear age effects in the repeat sales index. J. Real Estate Fin. Econ. 31 137–153.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Clapp, J.M. and Giacotto, C. (1992). Estimating price indices for residential property: a comparison of repeat sales and assessed value methods. J. Amer Statist. Assoc. 87 300–306.

    Google Scholar 

  10. Clapp, J.M. and Giacotto, C. (1998). Residential hedonic models: a rational expectations approach to age effects. J. Urban Econ. 44 415–437.

    Google Scholar 

  11. Clapp, J.M., Giacotto and C., Tirtiroglu, D. (1991). Housing price indices based on all transactions compared to repeat subsamples. Amer. Real Estate and Urban Econ. Assoc. J. 19 270–284.

    Google Scholar 

  12. Englund, P., Quigley, J.M. and Redfearn, C.L. (1999). The choice of methodology for computing housing price indexes: comparisons of temporal aggregation and sample definition. J. of Real Estate Fin. Econ. 19 91–112.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Gatzlaff, D.H. and Haurin, D.R. (1997). Sample selection bias and repeat-sales index estimates. J. Real Estate Fin. Econ. 23 5–30.

    Google Scholar 

  14. Meese, R.A. and Wallace, N.E. (1997). The construction of residential housing price indices: a comparison of repeat-sales, hedonic-regression, and hybrid approaches. J. of Real Estate Fin. Econ. 14 51–73.

    Google Scholar 

  15. Meissner, C., and Satchell, S. (2007). A comparison of the Case-Shiller house price index methodology with the FT house price index methodology. Available from http://www.acadametrics.co.uk.

  16. Nagaraja, C.H., Brown, L.D. and Wachter, S.M. (2014). Repeat sales house price index methodology. J. Real Estate Lit. Forthcoming.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Nagaraja, C.H., Brown, L.D. and Zhao, L.H. (2011). An autoregressive approach to house price modeling. Ann. of Appl. Stat. 5, 124–149

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  18. Palmquist, R.B. (1979). Hedonic price and depreciation indexes for residential housing: a comment. J. Urban Econ. 6 267–271.

    Google Scholar 

  19. Palmquist, R.B. (1982). Measuring environmental effects on property values without hedonic regression. J. of Urban Econ. 11 333–347.

    Google Scholar 

  20. Shen, H., Brown, L. D. and Zhi, H. (2006). Efficient estimation of log-normal means with application to pharmacokinetic data. Statist. Med. 25 30233038.

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  21. Shiller, R. (1991). Arithmetic repeat sales price estimators. J. Housing Econ. 1 110–126.

    Google Scholar 

  22. S&P/Case-Shiller\({}^{\circledR;}\) Home Price Indices: Index Methodology (November 2009). Available at http://www.standardandpoors.com.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Lawrence D. Brown .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York

About this paper

Cite this paper

Nagaraja, C.H., Brown, L.D. (2013). Constructing and Evaluating an Autoregressive House Price Index. In: Hu, M., Liu, Y., Lin, J. (eds) Topics in Applied Statistics. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, vol 55. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-7846-1_1

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics