Abstract
Fatigue-driven damage propagation is one of the most unpredictable failure mechanisms for a large variety of mechanical and structural systems subjected to cyclic and/or random operational loads during their service life. Therefore, monitoring the critical components of these systems, assessing their structural integrity, recursively predicting their remaining fatigue life (RFL), and providing a cost-efficient reliability-based inspection and maintenance (RBIM) plan are crucial tasks. In contribution to these objectives, the authors developed a comprehensive reliability-based fatigue damage prognosis methodology for recursively predicting and updating the RFL of critical structural systems and/or sub-assemblies. An overview of the proposed framework is provided in the first part of the paper. Subsequently, a set of experimental fatigue test data is used to validate the proposed methodology at the reliability component level. The proposed application example analyzes the fatigue-driven crack propagation process in a center-cracked 2024-T3 aluminum plate subjected to a sinusoidal load with random amplitude. Four probabilistic models of increasing load amplitude uncertainty together with damage evolution model parameter uncertainty and measurement uncertainty are considered in this study. The results obtained demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed framework in recursively updating and improving the RFL estimations and the benefits provided by a nearly continuous monitoring system.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Gobbato M, Conte JP, Kosmatka JB, Farrar CR (2012) A reliability-based framework for fatigue damage prognosis of composite aircraft structures. Prob Eng Mech 29:176–188
Gobbato M, Kosmatka JB, Conte JP A recursive bayesian approach for fatigue damage prognosis: an experimental validation at the reliability component level. Mech Syst Signal Process (Under review)
Virkler DA, Hillberry BM, Goel PK (1979) The statistical nature of fatigue crack propagation. Trans ASME 101(2):148–153
Berens AP (1989) NDE reliability analysis, metals handbook, vol 17, 9th edn. ASM International, New York, pp 689–701
Staat M (1993) Sensitivity of and influences on the reliability of an HTR-module primary circuit pressure boundary. In: 12th international conference on structural mechanics in reactor technology (SMiRT), Amsterdam
Zhang R, Mahadevan S (2001) Fatigue reliability analysis using non-destructive inspection. J Struct Eng 127(8):957–965
Zheng R, Ellingwood BR (1998) Role of non-destructive evaluation in time-dependent reliability analysis. Struct Saf 20(4):325–339
Gobbato M (2011) Reliability-based framework for fatigue damage prognosis of bonded structural elements in aerospace composite structures. Ph.D. thesis, Department of Structural Engineering, University of California, San Diego
Kotulski ZA (1998) On efficiency of identification of a stochastic crack propagation model based on Virkler experimental data. Arch Mech 50(5):829–847
Paris PC, Erdogan FA (1963) Critical analysis of crack propagation laws. J Basic Eng Trans ASME 85(Series D):528–534
Gobbato M, Kosmatka JB, Conte JP (2012) A recursive approach for remaining fatigue life predictions of monitored structural systems. In: Proceedings of the 53rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC structures, structural dynamics, and materials conference, Honolulu, 23–26 Apr 2012
Ostergaard DF, Hillberry BM (1983) Characterization of the variability in fatigue crack propagation data. In: Bloom JM, Ekvall JC (eds) Probabilistic fracture mechanics and fatigue methods: applications for structural design and maintenance, ASTM STP 798. ASTM, Philadelphia, pp 97–115
Acknowledgements
The work presented in this paper stems from a research project funded by the Educational Collaboration between the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the University of California, San Diego, (UCSD) on “A Damage Prognosis System for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles”, contract number: 72232-001-03. Partial support of this work was also provided by the UCSD Academic Senate Research Grant RJ086G-CONTE. The authors wish to thank Prof. Yongming Liu of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Clarkson University and Dr. Xuefei Guan (Research Scientist at Siemens Corporate Research) for providing the experimental dataset used in this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 The Society for Experimental Mechanics, Inc.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Gobbato, M., Conte, J.P., Kosmatka, J.B. (2013). Remaining Fatigue Life Predictions Considering Load and Model Parameters Uncertainty. In: Simmermacher, T., Cogan, S., Moaveni, B., Papadimitriou, C. (eds) Topics in Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 5. Conference Proceedings of the Society for Experimental Mechanics Series. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-6564-5_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-6564-5_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-1-4614-6563-8
Online ISBN: 978-1-4614-6564-5
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)