Abstract
Prohibitively expensive, both in terms of human and financial cost, robust conflict assessment and early warning has traditionally been the purview of governments and large international organizations. But now, with rapid advances in information technology and computational methods, this work has become more accessible, allowing smaller nongovernmental organizations and civil society to participate. The Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) is an approach that takes advantage of these developments. This chapter outlines the way in which CAST ensures the incorporation of sound theory, good data, and expert analysis, and illustrate its use for the assessment of risk in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, specifically the states of Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and Abia in the year 2011, where there was significant levels of militancy, criminality, and political violence. This case study highlights the challenges and opportunities of early warning in an interconnected world.
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Notes
- 1.
Brandt, Patrick T., John R. Freeman and Philip A. Schrodt. 2011. “Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-state Political Conflict.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 28(1):41–64.
- 2.
Weidmann, Nils B. and Michael D. Ward. 2010. “Predicting Conflict in Space and Time.” Journalof Conflict Resolution 54(6):883–901.
- 3.
Fearon J, Laitin D. 2003. “Ethnicity, insurgency and civil war”. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 97:75–90.
- 4.
Rotberg, Robert I. When States Fail: Causes and Consequences. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004.
- 5.
For more information about content analysis as employed by FFP, please read “Casting Globally: Using Content Analysis for Conflict Assessment and Forecasting,” Nate Haken, Joelle Burbank, and Pauline H. Baker, Military Operations Research Society Journal, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2010.
- 6.
A formation of volunteers dedicated to providing technology solutions to NGO’s and economically emerging governments. Their website can be found at http://www.thegadflyproject.org/.
- 7.
- 8.
CIA World Factbook, 2011.
- 9.
Baker, Pauline, et al. “Can Nigeria Achieve Unity in Diversity? A Case Study on the Management of Identity.” Fund for Peace Publications, December 2010.
- 10.
Ibid.
- 11.
Francis, Paul, et al. “Securing Development and Peace in the Niger Delta: A Social and Conflict Analysis for Change.” Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Publication. January 2011.
- 12.
Baker, Pauline, et al. “Can Nigeria Achieve Unity in Diversity? A Case Study on the Management of Identity.” Fund for Peace Publications, December 2010.
- 13.
Baker, Pauline, et al. “Can Nigeria Achieve Unity in Diversity? A Case Study on the Management of Identity.” Fund for Peace Publications, December 2010; Francis, Paul, et al. “Securing Development and Peace in the Niger Delta: A Social and Conflict Analysis for Change.” Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Publication. January 2011.
- 14.
Asuni, Judith Burdin. “Understanding the Armed Groups of the Niger Delta, A Working Paper” Council on Foreign Relations Publication, September 2009.
- 15.
UNDP. 2006. “Niger Delta Human Development Report.” United Nations Development Program, Abuja. http://web.ng.undp.org/reports/nigeria_hdr_report.pdf.
- 16.
Francis, Paul, et al. “Securing Development and Peace in the Niger Delta: A Social and Conflict Analysis for Change.” Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Publication. January 2011.
- 17.
Ibid.
- 18.
Asuni, Judith Burdin. “Understanding the Armed Groups of the Niger Delta, A Working Paper” Council on Foreign Relations Publication, September 2009.
- 19.
Baker, Pauline, et al. “Can Nigeria Achieve Unity in Diversity? A Case Study on the Management of Identity.” Fund for Peace Publications, December 2010.
- 20.
Asuni, 2009; International Crisis Group: “Nigeria’s Federal Experiment” Africa Report Number 119, October 2006.
- 21.
Baker, Pauline, et al. “Can Nigeria Achieve Unity in Diversity? A Case Study on the Management of Identity.” Fund for Peace Publications, December 2010; Francis, Paul, et al. “Securing Development and Peace in the Niger Delta: A Social and Conflict Analysis for Change.” Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Publication. January 2011.
- 22.
Francis, Paul, et al. “Securing Development and Peace in the Niger Delta: A Social and Conflict Analysis for Change.” Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Publication. January 2011.
- 23.
Baker, Pauline, et al. “Can Nigeria Achieve Unity in Diversity? A Case Study on the Management of Identity.” Fund for Peace Publications, December 2010; International Crisis Group, “Ending Unrest in the Niger Delta,” Africa Report Number 135, December 2007.
- 24.
Francis, Paul, et al. “Securing Development and Peace in the Niger Delta: A Social and Conflict Analysis for Change.” Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Publication. January 2011.
References
Asuni JB (2009) Understanding the armed groups of the Niger delta, a working paper. Council on Foreign Relations Publication. http://www.cfr.org/nigeria/understanding-armed-groups-niger-delta/p20146
Baker PH, Ferroggiaro W, Haken N (2010) Can Nigeria achieve unity in diversity? A case study on the management of identity. Fund for Peace Publications. http://www.fundforpeace.org/global/?q=cpgpr1012
Brandt PT, Freeman JR, Schrodt PA (2011) Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-state Political Conflict. Conflict Management and Peace Sci 28(1):41–64
Fearon J, Laitin D (2003) Ethnicity, insurgency and civil war. Am Polit Sci Rev 97:75–90
Francis P, LaPin D, Rossiasco P (2011) Securing development and peace in the Niger delta: a social and conflict analysis for change. Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Publication. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/AFR_110929_Niger%20Delta_0113.pdf
Haken N, Burbank J, Baker PH (2010) Casting globally: using content analysis for conflict assessment and forecasting. Mil Operations Res Soc J 15(2):5–19
International Crisis Group (2007) Ending unrest in the niger delta. Africa Report Number 135, December
International Crisis Group (2006) Nigeria’s federal experiment. Africa Report Number 119, October 2006
Rotberg RI (2004) When states fail: causes and consequences. Princeton University Press, Princeton
UNDP (2006) Niger delta human development report. United Nations Development Program, Abuja. http://web.ng.undp.org/reports/nigeria_hdr_report.pdf
Weidmann NB, Ward MD (2010) Predicting conflict in space and time. J Conflict Resolution 54(6):883–901
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Haken, N., Taft, P., Jaeger, R. (2013). A CAST Case-Study: Assessing Risk in the Niger Delta. In: Subrahmanian, V. (eds) Handbook of Computational Approaches to Counterterrorism. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5311-6_22
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