An Evaluation of Population Estimates for Counties and Places in Texas for 2000

Population estimate is one of the most widely used products of demographic analyses (Murdock and Ellis 1991). Population estimates for the state, counties, and places are essential for planning of different types of services, such as health care, schools, highways, water, and sewer. Planning for health services requires accurate information on the number of older people (aged 60 and over), their age, sex, marital status, distribution in different areas, and rural or urban residence. Population estimates provide a basis for allocation of resources between areas in relation to population size. The federal government uses the Census Bureau’s national and subnational population estimates in calculating the distribution of many billions of dollars in the form of block grants each year to the states and jurisdictions within them. Some state governments use State Data Center (SDC) population estimates to administer the state revenue sharing program. For example, the State of Florida uses its population estimates to distribute more than $1.5 billion each year to local governments (Smith and Cody 2004). Population estimates are also necessary to provide denominators to compute many types of rates and ratios, such as birth rates, death rates, labor force participation rates, school enrollment rates, dependency ratios, and sex ratios in non-census years. Population estimates play an important role in market analysis, public facility, and environmental planning and form a major basis for determining the present and future markets for a variety of goods and services and for other aspects of private-sector planning and marketing efforts (Murdock and Ellis 1991). They are often critical elements in the analyses leading to decisions of whether or not to build a new school, fire station, library, hospital, a shopping mall, or highway (Siegel 2002). Thus, population estimates make an important contribution to the activities of governments, organizations, and businesses in non-census years. Intercensal estimates provide data for years between two existing censuses, such as 1990 and 2000, while postcensal estimates provide data for years since the last census (Rowland 2003).