Skip to main content

Understanding Impacts of Climate Variation in Varied Socio-ecological Domains: A Prerequisite for Climate Change Adaptation and Management

  • Living reference work entry
  • First Online:
Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation

Abstract

This chapter examines the impacts of climate variability on selected socio-ecological settings in South Asia. A transdisciplinary conceptual framework is presented that blends multilevel interactions in a social-ecological-climate nexus. The overarching objective is to draw on empirical experience to build capacity to make use of climate data for societal needs, i.e., to facilitate climate change adaptation planning. The chapter has two modules. The first module, Climate Change Monitoring (CCM), details the operating structure of real-time climate data and its practical use. The second module, Climate Change Assessment (CCA), examines impacts and adaptation options using a case study approach. Focusing on the analytical process, the authors examine three socio-ecological subsystems, i.e., marine fisheries, a rice agroecosystem, and human migration, using a mixed “tool box” of meteorological data, remote sensing images, primary and secondary socioeconomic information, and a variety of software programs. The results indicate that (1) spatial indicators are useful in explaining a decline in marine ecosystem productivity; (2) local-level temperature variability is closely related to agroecosystem transitions; and (3) climatic variability, especially increased frequency of extreme events, triggers human migration. The case studies highlight the need to employ real-time climate data in the design of adaptation strategies and the requirement for a transdisciplinary approach.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • ADB (2011) Accounting for health impacts of climate change, July 2011, Asian Development Bank,6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines. ISBN:978-92-9092-359-6

    Google Scholar 

  • Akter T (2009) Climate change and flow of environmental displacement in Bangladesh. Publication of Unnayan Onneshan-The Innovators-Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Google Scholar 

  • Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 28:4499–4502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Asian Development Bank -ADB (2005) Climate proofing: a risk-based approach to adaptation. Asian development bank Pacific studies series, Philippines. Available from: http://www.adb.org/Documents/Reports/Climate-Proofing/climate-proofing.pdf

  • Ban KM (2008) Statement by United Nations Secretary-General Ban-Ki moon at the opening of the High-Level Segment of COP 14 in Pozna, 11 Dec 2008. http://unfccc.int/2860.php

  • Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (1994) Statistical yearbook of Bangladesh, statistical division, ministry of planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, pp 3–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Banuri T, Weyant J, Akumu G et al (eds) (2001) Climate change 2001: mitigation. Intergovernmental panel on climate change, third assessment report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 73–114

    Google Scholar 

  • Chellaney B (2007) Climate change: a new factor in international security? Global forces 2007: proceedings of the ASPI conference: day-1, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Barton ACT, pp 20–36

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen C, McCarl BA, Schimmelpfennig DE (2004) Yield variability as influenced by climate: a statistical investigation. Climate Change 66:239–261

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chowdhury S, Mobarak AM, Gharad B (2009) Migrating away from a seasonal famine: a randomized intervention in Bangladesh. MPRA paper 19224, University Library of Munich

    Google Scholar 

  • Christian Aid (2007) Human tide: the real migration crisis. Christian Aid, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Crossland MD, Wynne BE, Perkins WC (1995) Spatial decision support systems: an overview of technology and a test of efficacy. Decis Support Syst 14(3):219–235

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cruz RV, Harasawa H, Lal M et al (2007) Asia. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 469–506

    Google Scholar 

  • Daw T, Adger WN, Brown K, Badjeck M C (2009) Climate change and capture fisheries: potential impacts, adaptation and mitigation. In: Cochrane K, Young C De, Soto D, Bahri T (eds) Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture technical paper, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy, vol 251, pp 107–150

    Google Scholar 

  • Deb U, Hoque Z, Khaled N, Bairagi SK (2008) Growth, income inequality and poverty trends in Bangladesh: implications for development strategy. Paper presented at the dialogue on ‘Addressing Regional Inequalities: Policy Options and Strategies’ held on 28th February 2008 at CIRDAP Auditorium; organized by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)-Bangladesh

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterling DR, Horton B, Jones PD et al (1997) Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science 277:364–367

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Economic Times (2013) Climate change could affect wheat production, says government report. Report from the edition of June 20, 2013 (Accessed 11th July 2013): Available at: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-05-09/news/31641933_1_wheat-production-climate-change-adaptation-strategies

  • Egeh AO, Ingram KT, Zamora OB (1994) High temperature effects on leaf exchange. Phil J Crop Sci 17:21–26

    Google Scholar 

  • EJF (Environmental Justice Foundation) (2012) A nation under threat – the impacts of climate change on human rights and forced migration in Bangladesh, EJF report. London, ISBN 978-1-904523-26-0

    Google Scholar 

  • Eurostat Report (2000) Available from epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu

    Google Scholar 

  • Fan Z, Bräuning A, Thomas A et al (2011) Spatial and temporal temperature trends on the Yunnan Plateau (Southwest China) during 1961–2004. Int J Climatol 31:2078–2090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flewwelling P (2000) Fisheries management and MCS in South Asia: comparative analysis. FAO/FISHCODE Project, GCP/INT/648/NOR: Field Report C-6 (En), FAO, Rome, p 56

    Google Scholar 

  • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations- FAO (2008) Climate change and food security: a framework document. Report by FAO, Rome, 93 p

    Google Scholar 

  • Fraisse C et al (2006) AgClimate: a climate forecast information system for agricultural risk management in the southeastern USA. Comput Electron Agric 53(1):13–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gallo KP, Easterling DR, Peterson TC (1996) The influence of land use/land cover on climatological values of the diurnal temperature range. J Climate 9:2941–2944

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami UA (2013) IEA suggests measure to control global temperature rise. The Economic Times. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-20/news/40093864_1_emissions-climate-change-iea. 20 June 2013

  • Goswami BN, Krishnan R (2013) Opportunities and challenges in monsoon prediction in a changing climate- Editorial of special OCHAMP issue. Clim Dyn 41:1

    Google Scholar 

  • Hannart A, Dufresne JL, Naveau P (2009) Why climate sensitivity may not be so unpredictable. Geophys Res Lett 36, L16707. doi:10.1029/2009GL039640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasselmann K (1993) Optimal fingerprints for the detection of time-dependent climate change. J Climate 6(10):1957–1971

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hewitson BC, Crane RG (2006) Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa. Int J Climatol 26:1315–1337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Fourth Assessment Report. Climate change 2007- the physical science basis. Summary for policymakers. Approved at the 10th session of the working group I of the IPCC, Paris, Feb 2007

    Google Scholar 

  • Jagadish SVK et al (2010) Temperature effects on rice: significance and possible adaptation. In: Advanced technologies for rice production for coping with climate change: no regret options for adaptation and mitigation and their potential update. Proceedings of the joint workshop organized by FAO and International Rice Research Institute-IRRI, Los Baños, pp 19–25

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnston M, Williamson T (2007) A framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of the Canadian forest sector. Forest Chron 83:358–361

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kriegler E, Hall JW, Held H, Dawson R (2009) Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(13):5041–5046

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kropff MJ, Cassman KG, van Laar HH, Peng S (1993) Nitrogen and yield potential of irrigated rice. Plant Soil 155/156:391–394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lal M (2003) Global climate change: India’s monsoon and its variability. J Environ Stud Policy 6:1–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lemoine DM, Traeger CP (2011) Tipping points and ambiguity in the economics of climate change. In: Working paper series qt9nd591ww, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley

    Google Scholar 

  • Litchfield A (2010) Climate change induced extreme weather events and sea level rise in Bangladesh leading to Migration and Conflict. ICE Case Studies, Number 229- American University-Web Document available at, http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/Bangladesh.html.

  • Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616–620

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Luo L, Wood EF, Pan M (2007) Bayesian merging of multiple climate model forecasts for seasonal hydrological predictions. J Geophys Res 112. doi: 10.1029/2006JD007655

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahan JR, Burke JJ, Orzech KA (1987) The ‘thermal kinetic window’ as an indicator of optimum plant temperature. Plant Physiol 82:518–522

    Google Scholar 

  • Mazid MA (2002) Development of fisheries in Bangladesh. Plans and strategies for income generation and poverty alleviation. Report of the Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute. Momin Offset Press, Dhaka, ISBN 984-32-0401-9

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller NL, Kim J, Hartman RK, Farrara JD (1999) Downscaled climate and streamflow study of the southwestern United States. J AWRA-Spec Issues Clim Change Water Res 35(6):1525–1537

    Google Scholar 

  • Mirza MMQ (2003) Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt? Clim Policy 3:233–248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nagabhatla N (2012) Understanding of climate data and it’s interlinked with socio-economic and ecological vulnerability to address adaptation. Research report of APEC-Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, Asia Pacific Climate Center-APCC-Busan, South Korea, 50 p

    Google Scholar 

  • Nagabhatla N, Kumar A (2013) Developing a joint understanding of agrobiodiversity and land-use change. In: Christinck A, Padmanabhan M (eds) Cultivate diversity: a hand book on transdisciplinary approaches to agro biodiversity research. Margraf Publishers, Weikersheim, Germany pp 27–51

    Google Scholar 

  • Nagabhatla N, Beveridge M, Haque ABM et al (2012) Multiple water use as an approach for increased basin productivity and improved adaptation: a case study from Bangladesh. Int J River Basin Manag 10(1):121–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Wong PP, Burkett VR et al (2007) Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 315–356

    Google Scholar 

  • NRAA (2013) Contingency and compensatory agriculture plans for droughts and floods in India- 2012. Position paper no 6. National Rainfed Area Authority, New Delhi, 87 p. http://nraa.gov.in/pdf/Droughts%20and%20Floods%20in%20India-2012.pdf

  • Porter JR, Semenov MA (1999) Climate variability and crop yields in Europe. Nature 400:724–724

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rahman A, Alam A, Alam M et al (2007) Risks, vulnerability and adaptation in Bangladesh. UNDP Human Development Report-2007/08. Fighting climate change: human solidarity in a divided world. Human Development Report office occasional paper, 86 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Reuveny R (2007) Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict. Polit Geogr 26(6):656–673

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rizzi et al. (2012) A GIS-based decision support system to support the implementation of integrated coastal zone management–preliminary results from the PEGASO project. In: Gensel J, Josselin D, Vandenbroucke D (eds) Multidisciplinary research on geographical information in Europe and beyond. Proceedings of the AGILE’2012 international conference on geographic information science, Avignon, 24–27 Apr 2012. ISBN: 978-90-816960-0-5

    Google Scholar 

  • Rozum S, John S, Carr D, Sarah (2013) Tools for Coastal climate adaptation planning: a guide for selecting tools to assist with ecosystem-based climate planning. By Coastal-Marine Ecosystem-Based Management Tools Network. Edition March 2013-NatureServe. Arlington, Va. Available at https://connect.natureserve.org/sites/default/files/documents/EBM-ClimateToolsGuide-FINAL.pdf

  • Sivakumar MV, Stefanski R (2011) Climate change in South Asia. In: Lal R, Sivakumar MVK, Faiz SMA, Rahman AHMM, Islam KR (eds) Climate change and food security in South Asia. Springer, Chichester, pp 13–30

    Google Scholar 

  • Sontakke NA, Singh N, Singh HN (2008) Instrumental period rainfall series of the Indian region (AD 1813–2005): revised reconstruction, update and analysis. The Holocene 18(7):1055–1066

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stern N(2006) The stern review on the economics of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • UNFCCC (2009) Approaches to and experiences in integrating and expanding adaptation planning and action at national, subnational, community and local levels, and lessons learned, good practices, gaps, needs, and barriers and constraints to adaptation submissions from parties and relevant organizations. FCCC/SBSTA/2009/MISC.4.UNFCCC Secretariat

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Environment Programme-UNEP (2009) Towards sustainable production and use of resources: assessing biofuels. Division of Technology Industry and Economics, 15 rue de Milan, 75441 Paris CEDEX 09, France, ISBN: 978-92-807-3052-4. http://www.unep.org/PDF/Assessing_Biofuels.pdf

  • Wang B, Lee JY, Kang IS, Shukla J et al (2009) Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004). Clim Dyn 33:93–117

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ward PR, Samantha BM, Fiona V et al (2011) Complex problems require complex solutions: the utility of social quality theory for addressing the social determinants of health. BMC Public Health 11:630

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wassmann R et al (2009) Climate change affecting rice production. Adv Agron 101:59–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Welch JR et al (2010) Rice yields in tropical/subtropical Asia exhibit large but opposing sensitivities to minimum and maximum temperatures. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 107(33):14562–14567

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wells Spencer (2013) Southern California Genealogical Society (SCGS). Retrieved 10 July 2013

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (2010) World Development Report 2010: development and climate change. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Yonetani M (2011). Displacement due to natural hazard-induced disasters: global estimates for 2009 and 2010. Report of the Norwegian Refugee Council Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This chapter is inspired from the talk delivered by the first author titled Ecological and Socio-economic Vulnerability links closely with climate variation: A study exploring adaptation using this connect at UNU-WIDER Conference on Climate Change and Development Policy, United Nations University-World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki, Finland, 28–29 September 2012. The authors thank the staff at APCC in South Korea and the BioDIVA project for their inputs and support and Andrew Halliday for language editing. The usual disclaimer applies.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nidhi Nagabhatla .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this entry

Cite this entry

Nagabhatla, N., Sahu, S.K., Gaetaniello, A., Wen, L., Lee, W. (2014). Understanding Impacts of Climate Variation in Varied Socio-ecological Domains: A Prerequisite for Climate Change Adaptation and Management. In: Leal Filho, W. (eds) Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40455-9_64-1

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40455-9_64-1

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-40455-9

  • eBook Packages: Springer Reference Earth and Environm. ScienceReference Module Physical and Materials ScienceReference Module Earth and Environmental Sciences

Publish with us

Policies and ethics