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Extreme Events in Socio-economic and Political Complex Systems, Predictability of

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Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics

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Article Outline

Glossary

Definition of the Subject

Introduction

Common Elements of Data Analyzes

Elections

US Economic Recessions

Unemployment

Homicide Surges

Summary: Findings and Emerging Possibilities

Bibliography

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Abbreviations

Complexity:

A definitive feature of nonlinear systems of interacting elements. It comprises high instability with respect to initial and boundary conditions, and complex but non‐random behavior patterns (“order in chaos”).

Extreme events:

Rare events having a large impact. Such events are also known as critical phenomena, disasters, catastrophes, and crises. They persistently reoccur in hierarchical complex systems created, separately or jointly, by nature and society.

Fast acceleration of unemployment (FAU):

The start of a strong and lasting increase of the unemployment rate.

Pattern recognition of rare events:

The methodology of artificial intelligence' kind aimed at studying distinctive features of complex phenomena, in particular – at formulating and testing hypotheses on these features.

Premonitory patterns:

Patterns of a complex system's behavior that emerge most frequently as an extreme event approaches.

Recession:

The American National Bureau of Economic Research defines recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months”. A recession may involve simultaneous decline in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as industrial production, employment, investment, and corporate profits.

Start of the homicide surge (SHS):

The start of a strong and lasting increase in the smoothed homicide rate.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics and Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, USA

    Vladimir Keilis-Borok

  2. International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia

    Vladimir Keilis-Borok & Alexandre Soloviev

  3. Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

    Alexandre Soloviev

  4. American University, Washington D.C., USA

    Allan Lichtman

Authors
  1. Vladimir Keilis-Borok
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  2. Alexandre Soloviev
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  3. Allan Lichtman
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. RAMTECH LIMITED, 122 Escalle Lane, Larkspur, CA, 94939, USA

    Robert A. Meyers Ph. D. (Editor-in-Chief) (Editor-in-Chief)

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Keilis-Borok, V., Soloviev, A., Lichtman, A. (2009). Extreme Events in Socio-economic and Political Complex Systems, Predictability of. In: Meyers, R. (eds) Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7701-4_15

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7701-4_15

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