Reference Work Entry

Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics

Part of the series Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series pp 178-182

Date:

Earthquake Prediction, M8 Algorithm

  • Alik Ismail-ZadehAffiliated withGeophysical Institute, Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyInternational Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of SciencesInstitut de Physique du Globe Email author 
  • , Vladimir KossobokovAffiliated withInternational Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of SciencesInstitut de Physique du Globe

Definition

An earthquake is a sudden movement within the Earth’s crust or the upper mantle that releases tectonic stress and, usually, originates seismic waves. The hierarchy of movable lithospheric volumes composes a large nonlinear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of earthquake prediction (Keilis-Borok et al., 2001).

Earthquake prediction is a statement about future earthquake occurrence based on the information, data, and scientific methods that are available now. To predict an earthquake, someone “must specify the expected magnitude range, the geographical area within which it will occur, and the time interval within which it will happen with sufficient precision so that the ultimate success or failure of the prediction can readily be judged. Only by careful recording and analysis of failures as well ...

This is an excerpt from the content