Envisioning Uncertain Futures

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-XIV

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2. Introduction

   • Roman Peperhove

   Pages 15-21

3. Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument

   • Karlheinz Steinmüller

   Pages 23-35

4. Scenarios that tell a Story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight

   • Robert Gaßner, Karlheinz Steinmüller

   Pages 37-48

5. Surprising Scenarios. Imagination as a Dimension of Foresight

   • Aharon Hauptman, Karlheinz Steinmüller

   Pages 49-68

6. Security 2025: Scenarios as an Instrument for Dialogue

   • Lars Gerhold, Karlheinz Steinmüller

   Pages 69-82

7. Didactical Functions of Dark and Bright Scenarios: Examples from the European Transport Industry

   • Massimo Moraglio, Hans-Liudger Dienel, Robin Kellermann

   Pages 83-103

8. The Use of SWOT Analysis for Future Scenarios: A Case Study of Privacy and Emerging Technologies

   • Liisa Luoto, Annika Lonkila

   Pages 105-131

9. The Future of Water Use: Scenarios for Water Management in Telangana - Strengthening Local Governance in the Minor Irrigation Sector

   • Angela Jain, Sascha Dannenberg

   Pages 133-141

10. The Future of Water Use: Construction of Scenarios in the Project

    • Sascha Dannenberg, Angela Jain

    Pages 143-153

11. Peace Operations 2025”: From Shaping Factors to Scenarios

    • Björn Theis, Stefan Köppe

    Pages 155-173

12. Anticipating New Security Threats: The FESTOS Project

    • Yair Sharan

    Pages 175-188

13. The Development of FESTOS Scenarios

    • Roman Peperhove

    Pages 189-204

14. The FESTOS Scenarios

    • Karlheinz Steinmüller

    Pages 205-236

15. Reflections on how to Improve Future Scenarios

    • Roman Peperhove

    Pages 237-256

16. Conclusion

    • Roman Peperhove

    Pages 257-262

17. Back Matter

    Pages 263-269

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This book contains a collection of projects and scenarios dealing with new risks from emerging technologies, future peace keeping operations, and water distribution issues by combining analysis with dialogue. Special attention is paid to the methodology of narrative scenarios, and the role of imagination in the generation of these scenarios. Appearing as short stories, narrative scenarios include a great amount of explicit and implicit knowledge and they need story telling skills to become consistent, coherent as well as compelling and convincing pictures of the future.

• Futures studies
• Security research
• Risk assessment
• Technology assessment
• Public Security
• Narrative Scenarios
• Public Security
• Mobility Research
• Future of Water Use
• Future of Peace Operations
• Emerging Technological Threats

• Berlin, Germany

  Roman Peperhove, Karlheinz Steinmüller, Hans-Liudger Dienel

Roman Peperhove is head of the research Unit for Public Security at Freie Universität Berlin.

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller is scientific director of a foresight consulting company and science fiction author.

Prof. Dr. Hans-Liudger Dienel holds the professorship "Arbeitslehre/Technik und Partizipation" at the Technical University of Berlin and is Managing Director of the nexus Institute for Cooperation Management and Interdisciplinary Research GmbH.

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