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Spatio-temporal trends of mean air temperature during 1961–2009 and impacts on crop (maize) yields in the most important agricultural region of Romania

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Abstract

Climate change analysis is essential, considering the numerous economic and ecological implications of this critical global environmental issue. This paper analyzes the spatial and temporal trends of mean air temperature in Romania’s most important agricultural area, the south and south-eastern region, between 1961 and 2009. In this respect, multiannual (the entire period) and multidecadal (1961–1990, 1971–2000, 1981–2009) trends were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope method at 23 weather stations, annually, seasonally and for the growing season of the region’s main agricultural crops (maize and wheat). Multiannually, the results showed statistically significant temperature increases, on all temporal scales (maximum rate of 0.06 °C/year recorded in summer, equivalent to a net temperature rise of 2.82 °C), except for the autumn season (cooling without statistical significance). Multidecadally, the 1961–1990 period is marked by a general cooling, especially in autumn (maximum values of −0.07 °C/year or over 2 °C net cooling). In the 1971–2000 and 1981–2009 periods, a general warming was observed (maximum in summer for both multidecades, when positive rates peaked at 0.09 °C/year, or 2.5–3 °C net warming), but the warming of the last three decades is the most prominent in terms of spatial average magnitude and trend significance. Upon analysis of the impact of climate warming on agricultural yields (maize) through linear regression, in the 1991–2000 decade, considered as case study, it was found that in 32 % of the total analyzed area there are evident relationships between the two variables (p value <0.05). In this case, a dependency of 33–50 % (40 %, on average) of maize to climate was found, and a sensitivity (loss) ranging between 0.9 and 1.5 t/ha/year (1.2 t/ha/year, on average) for a 1 °C temperature rise. At the same time, significant losses (of up to 1.7 t/ha/year) of maize for a 1 °C temperature rise were identified in 51 % of the area, but with little p value significance (between 0.05 and 0.1). It is however necessary to analyse the agro-climatic results cautiously, considering that only one decade of climate-agriculture relationship was studied. The results can be useful first and foremost for mitigating the climate change impact on agricultural systems, by prioritizing future adaptation strategies enforced by policy makers.

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Fig. 1
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Note stationary trends were identified considering a slope value of 0.000 (instances with the third decimal place equal to at least 1 indicate positive/negative trends)

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Acknowledgments

This work was performed as a part of research supported by the project COSMOMAR no. 58/2013, financed by STAR Program of ROSA, and the project ECOMAGIS no. 69/2012, financed by UEFISCDI PN-IIPT-PCCA-2011-3.2 1427. The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their highly constructive comments and suggestions that helped improve this paper.

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  1. Faculty of Geography, Center for Coastal Research and Environmental Protection, University of Bucharest, 1 Nicolae Bălcescu str., 010041, Bucharest, Romania

    Remus Prăvălie & Georgeta Bandoc

  2. Iaşi Divison, Geography Department, Romanian Academy, 8 Carol I str., 700505, Iaşi, Romania

    Cristian Patriche

  3. National Meteorological Administration (Meteo Romania), 97 Bucuresti-Ploiesti str., 013686, Bucharest, Romania

    Maria Tomescu

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  1. Remus Prăvălie
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Prăvălie, R., Bandoc, G., Patriche, C. et al. Spatio-temporal trends of mean air temperature during 1961–2009 and impacts on crop (maize) yields in the most important agricultural region of Romania. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 1923–1939 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1278-7

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