Trek to MDG 4: State of Indian States

Abstract

Objectives

To provide projections of progress towards the national and state specific MDG 4 using infant mortality rates (IMR) as the indicator.

Methods

Infant mortality rates (IMR) of major Indian states for year 1990 were used as the base for evaluating their progress in child health. In the absence of any specific guidelines, the state specific target IMR was derived from the IMR:U5MR (under 5 mortality rate) of the countries whose current U5MR is between 11 and 47 per 1,000 live-births (range of target U5MR for Indian states). The projected IMR for year 2015 was then estimated by the average annual rate of reduction (AARR) from 2005 to 2012.

Results

Only a few major states–Karnataka, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, and Tamil Nadu are likely to achieve their respective target IMR within the stipulated time (2015). The other major states, and India as a whole, are likely to miss the MDG 4. The two worst performers, Assam and West Bengal, are likely to achieve their respective targets by 2032 and 2022 respectively. Almost all the states have witnessed a significant progress since the advent of National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) in mid-2005–the AARR has almost doubled in the post-NRHM epoch for most states and India as a whole.

Conclusions

The overall progress of most Indian states towards achieving MDG 4 is presently unsatisfactory. However, given the momentum gained since the commencement of NRHM, acceleration in child survival is quite possible in these states.